$SK hynix(SKHY)$ Supply shortages look like they'll extend into the 2030s, while new capacity is still roughly a decade away. Retail demand keeps pushing, and that should support profits and dividends.
$Oracle(ORCL)$ $SpaceX(SPCX)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Markets will never be what they once were. Options trading was the first downfall. There's still money to be made, but you need serious nerve to trade in this environment. Wall Street, politics, and AI are the ones in control now. Most people will go broke trying. AI stocks are going to go through the roof, but there will be plenty of ups and downs between now and then. And a lot of people will still end up broke.
$SpaceX(SPCX)$ Customer concentration isn't really an issue here. These customers desperately need the compute, and even if some of them were to change their minds, there are thousands of other customers waiting for that capacity.
$Microsoft(MSFT)$ They're saying the second half acceleration is coming from GPUs, CPUs, and higher memory and storage costs. The biggest buyer in the world is paying more for memory and still ordering more. Memory is the real bottleneck here.
$iShares Semiconductor ETF(SOXX)$ $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bear 3x Shares(SOXS)$ SOXL has dropped 75% from its high of $302. Since it launched in March 2010, there have been two major pre-COVID drawdowns where SOXL fell 70% or more, or came very close. Here's how buying at extreme drawdown points performed over the following 5-year windows: 1. 2011 European Debt / Tech Correction SOXL fell roughly 73% between April 2011 and October 2011 on European sovereign debt concerns and a global growth slowdown. Buying near the October 2011 bottom produced a 5-year return of about +350% to +400%. 2. 2
$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ AAOI hit $233 five months ago, then dropped to $76 and back to $161 two months ago, then dropped to $95 and back up to $131 two weeks ago. We're now sitting at the lows from 3 months ago. It ran from $85 to $233 in 6 weeks, doubling prior to Q2 earnings. The volatility will continue after the Q3 ER, but at a higher level in my view. I believe AAOI will hit their targets and continue to guide for $1B+ for 2026. That's why I haven't sold a single share throughout all of these gyrations.
$SK hynix(SKHY)$ It wouldn't surprise me if Kospi takes off to the upside. High beta, high volatility, high leverage cuts both ways. We've already seen the downside, but it's just as capable of producing a face-ripping rally to the upside.