Another Instance of Situational AwarenessStrengthening breadth must come alongside a growing count of industry groups hitting fresh 1-month RS highs in my opinion. Here’s what I’ve observed since we hit the all-time high on 29 October.29 October: $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ at $687 (ATH), Net High–Low: -543, Industry Groups at 1-Month Highs: 11 of 10912th November SPY $683, Net High–Low: +263, Industry Groups at 1-Month Highs: 5 of 1093rd December: SPY $683 (again), Net High–Low: +674, Industry Groups at 1-Month Highs: 21 of 109 Further reference, and full industry group ETF list are shared below; $VanEck Steel ETF(SLX)$$SPDR S&P Transportation ETF(XTN)$
got some excellent queries on the requirement to maintain the performance for much lower trade frequency; the lower the frequency, the higher the expectancy value is required of your trading.Yesterday's 35 trades average per month example will equate a trade 'Expectancy' of 0.65R per tradeExpectancy per R = (win rate x Avg R Gain) + ( (1 - win rate) x Avg R Loss).To churn a 6% avg monthly return to compound beyond 100% annualized return at lower trade frequency will require higher trade expectancy more than 0.65R per trade. I will further reduce 35 to 20, this is 40% reduction in trade frequency.eg. Reduce '35' trades avg per month to '20'since per R is 0.3% risk in my example. 6% monthly compounded return will require 20R. 20 R / 20 trade = trade expectancy of 1R per trade (up from 0.65R
NVDA Gap-Up Shows It: No Breakout Fuel in This Tape
We got the declining 10-MA rejection, but after being positioned short for going 2 weeks from early breadth deterioration. November has offered much more clarity than October — a far easier month to navigate, in my opinion. Even some long-biased focus ideas I shared with my X subscribers couldn’t trigger—none showed RVOL-driven breakouts or a <LoD 60% re-ORH setup within the first 30 minutes to sustain opening strength to ride a spring-coil intraday expansion momentum Yesterday's $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ earnings gap-up is a great example. (Refer to Substack Chapter 6 for my 15 Pre-Execution Hard Rules.)The market is now in that classic phase where it’s too late to add shorts and too early to go long. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and en