To The Moon

1.Global Gold market-cap-to-GDP RatioMarket commentators often look at the Stockmarket cap to GDP ratio as a valuation indicator... so what do you think -- is Gold overvalued? $Gold - main 2504(GCmain)$ Image2.stock & bond yields...Makes you wonder what the next 150 years will look like 🤔 ⌛Image3.This indicator is not perfect, but it's better than most, and it's telling us some important things about the risk outlook. (low = risk is high)Image4.New all-time highs in US$ #GoldThis follows the previous breakout to new ATH in the Global Gold Price Index a couple of weeks ago.(in other words, the strength in the US$ Gold price is confirmed by the strength in global gold markets)Are you bullish? or are you bullish?🤔Image5.Geopolitical Risk is h

1.We've just lived through some of the best times in history for investors, but with good times comes amnesia to the worst times of history.Things can get bad, real bad.The upside is we can learn from history, try to manage risk, diversify, and ideally get a lead on big changes and pressures building up in the system.Image2.The relationship between Gold $Gold - main 2504(GCmain)$ and TIPS yields broke down in 2022...That points to 2 Key possibilitiesImage3.As stockmarket turmoil breaks out, expect to see more interest in Defensives like Gold (which already has solid price momentum in play)More detail on Gold Price drivers +OutlookImage4.Sometimes the stockmarket stays in a 20-year trading range, other times it cycles around multi-year uptrends

1.China: gold price vs bond yieldsChina/EM have been in the driver's seat of the gold price (both in terms of the geopolitics and reserves diversification aspect, but also on the macro/markets side of things) $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ Image2.Where-to next for the black line?Is it already as low as it goes, or can Trump & team take it even lower?Key questions as falling effective tax rates have had a huge impact on earnings over the past few decades...Image3.How the stock market cycle works...Theory vs Practice😅 😵‍💫Image4.No Fun for Active Funds Over a 3 decade period:59% of funds did *not* survive31% survived but lagged the index10% survived and beat the indexWhether or not it's fun, it ain't easy. $

1.Buy & Hold?Hold on a minute...If you buy and hold the S&P500 $.SPX(.SPX)$ index, you're not actually buying and holding, you're really buying an interest in a constantly shuffling set of stocks -- and in 10 year's time you may well not recognize 1/3 stocks in your portfolio!Image2.Non-rec Bulls 🤔 This chart shows the history of Bull markets coming out of Recession (most often large, triple digit gains) vs those *not* preceded by recession circled in blue (still significant but shorter, smaller by comparison). One implication is that the current one looks about fully-cooked.3."Cyclically-Adjusted Earnings" This chart tells you all you need to know about US vs global equity relative performance...(and likely will hold key clues in terms of

Here's 4 charts that spell-out where we are + what's at stake right now with a potential Bursting of the AI BubbleEmotion Cycle Stage = EuphoriaValuation Cycle Stage = ExpensiveHype Cycle Stage = Inflated ExpectationsSoros Bubble Process = Moment of Truth?ImageImageImageImagei.e. re the Chinese breakthrough AI model DeepSeek, which was achieved with much lower cost (denting Capex/Chips bullishness), and likely placing pressure on already tenuous margin expectations for AI commercialization, which has triggered panic selling of $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Now, the price action in NVDA is knee-jerk, and it likely will rebound on Turn around Tuesday -- but as noted we are at a delicate stage of the cycle and the extreme confidence in the AI Hype bull market could

1.US Corporate Profit Margins-tech has found a new higher plateau-non-tech has trended up over timeThank you 🙏 -lower interest rates-lower tax rates-higher productivity-higher share of global revsImage2.One reason for US equities outperforming Global equities for much of the past 10-15 years has been the consistently higher profitabilityUS RoE out-punches the rest.Image3.The Great Deleveraging Thanks to scars of the financial crisis spurring folk to be more prudent with debt and of course — more-to-the-point: the dream run in stocks and property on the asset side...US household leverage (as measured by debt as a % of assets) has dropped to multi-decade lows. Who da thunk it.Image

1.Where do stockmarket returns come from? $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Dividends: consistent (but falling)Earnings: but with variation through the economic cycleValuation changes: with major variation through the market/financial cycleImage2.Non-rec Bulls 🤔 This chart shows the history of Bull markets coming out of Recession (most often large, triple digit gains) vs those *not* preceded by recession circled in blue (still significant but shorter, smaller by comparison). One implication is that the current one looks about fully-cooked.Image3.Stockmarket investors Income Growth over timeImage4.Credit & Equity are in agreement 🤝 These competing claims on corporate assets can agree on one

1.BOJ continues policy normalization push, hikes +25bps to 0.50% -- last time they hiked to that level was early-2007Capping off one crazy experiment with another 👺Image2.I realized something the other day...There's a funny duality in markets at the moment -- it seems many people can agree that European stocks are extremely cheap vs US, and many people also agree on the weaknesses and challenges facing Europe vs the upsides and strengths enjoyed by US stocks.Cheap for a reason = It's in the price.Image3.Even after factoring in dividends, "lost decades" are something that seems to come along about at least once per generationIf only there were a way to manage this risk and prepare.......... $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S

1.Tale of two Stockmarkets right there!Two questions:-can tech earnings keep surging?-when will non-tech shake-off stagnation?Image2."stocks go up in the long-run"Yep, but they also go through some pretty major cycles.This is a *good* thing for investors who are prepared to manage risk and capture opportunities. $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Image3.Initial breakout in Gold $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ , surge in Silver $Silver - main 2503(SImain)$ shorts (squeeze coming?), Deep Value in Gold Miners, and a look at who Holds the most Gold...

Investing Statistics you should Know:"as an index investor you will definitely see numerous 10-20% drawdowns along your path, and most likely at least one -40% downturn during your lifetime"Not dooming.Just zooming in on reality:--> be prepared.(emotionally + strategically) $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ ImageThe History of Bull vs Bear marketsNotice anything?ImageTech is Extreme ExpensiveNon-Tech is non-cheapHave a hmm: $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2503(NQmain)$ Image