To The Moon

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ size indexes relative performanceBasically everything that's not mega caps have underperformed --- even large caps have seen significant underperformance (i.e. the S&P500 excluding the top 100 stocks)Highly unusual, but whenever it happens like this eventually you see some give-back... Rate Cuts = Commodities Up. 📈 A global pivot to rate cuts over the past 2 years has set up a major tailwind to growth ...and ultimately higher commodity prices. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here.Complete your first Cash Boost Account trade with a trade amount of ≥ SGD1000* to get SGD 688 sto

1.The history of US interest rates is one of long-term cycles...Up phases, and down phases.High rates, low rates.But something stands out >> these cycles used to take a long time to run their course. The recent upcycle was faster and sharper.Is this the beginning of cycle compression? 2.Key theme for 2026... 🧐🤔Gold $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ is Expensive.Commodities are Cheap.Rotation time? 3.Bonds $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ are still in a bear market...But here's some clues on the next steps: For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here.Com

1.Tech share of total S&P500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ corporate capex has reached new all-time-highs. 👀 Bubble or boom, this is extreme. 2.After spending ~20-years dumping Gold $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ (in the 90's/00's), Central Banks have spent the last 15-year undoing their previous mistake...Reserves Diversification remains a key driver in the modern Gold bull market. 3.A major secular tailwind behind US Equities has been the rise and rise of foreign stockholders.I'd call this a strength, a potential weakness, and a reflection of multiple facts-of-life in modern markets. For SG users only, welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commissi

1.Gold $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ is up over 50% YTDNasdaq $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ is up ~20% YTDAnd yet investors remain enamored with tech stocks, and ambivalent on gold... 2.Massive gap between gold and the cost of production...There's some very good things about this, but also some cause for caution. 3.Banks are reporting higher Loan Demand -- this is bullish for the economic outlook.Entirely consistent with out global growth reacceleration thesis... For SG users only, welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here.Complete your first Cash Boost Account trade wi

The rise of Retail.The 2020 stimmy unleashed a wave of speculation that has only grown and intensified since.There is an air of desperation.People feeling like they’re behind and trying to catch-up by taking big risks, people chasing those stories of overnight wealth, and even folk trying to get rich before AI takes over the world.Or in simpler terms, the combination of big bull markets, easy money, and improved access to trading and information has really democratized markets — and the numbers show it clearly. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here.Complete your first Cash Boost Account trade with a trade amount of ≥ SG

1.Public Markets = pick the asset class 🤔 Private Markets = pick the manager 🧐 Mileage varies greatly across (but not so much within) asset classes for Public assets -- while mileage varies enormously *within* asset classes for the very opaque, illiquid, and idiosyncratic Private markets... 2.Bubble Bursting?I previously highlighted when this chart was at its peak that this is either going to be a tipping point or tripping point for Bitcoin, and now it sure looks like a tripping point... 👀 For SG users only, a tool to boost your purchasing power and trading ideas with a Cash Boost Account!Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here.Complete yo

1.Tide is Turning... 👀 "I keep coming back to this chart as barometer of speculative risk appetite and liquidity (+potential early-warning indicator). To that end, with bitcoin rolling over and tech topping out, it’s not a good sign." $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ 2.The "Relative Return Procession" is progressing...Next up?Gold breaking out vs stocks. 👀 $Gold - main 2512(GCmain)$ 3."in the long-run stocks go up"Yep.But sometimes they not only don't go up, but actually get f----d up. Here's some horrific examples.A world map infographic titled Worst Investor Experiences showing major cases of 80 to 100 percent returns below zero over 20-year periods from 1900 to 2000 with orange highlights on countries like United

1.Semi's Sign 'o the Times...Bulls: this is fine, this is the new normal, it's backed by earnings, it's high for good reason.Bears: this is dot-com 2.0, earnings are unsustainable, AI bubble.The Truth? $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ 2.Gold Bull ConsolidationsIt's entirely normal for big gold bull markets to have long pauses, and if anything the entire up-move in gold almost only happens over a few key weeks and days... $Gold - main 2512(GCmain)$ 3.Global Equities "Relative Value Trinity"...something for those focused on the next 3-5 years and beyond (vs the next 3-5 days or hours for that matter!) For SG users only, a tool to boost your purchasing power and trading ideas with a Cash Boost Account!Welc

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts:Bitcoin is rolling over: a warning sign for teetering tech stocks.Investors of all types are increasingly all-in on the AI trade.The AI race is heating up as an AI credit boom kicks-off.Investor sentiment is euphoric across numerous metrics.Consumer confidence is slumping as the divide widens.Overall, the AI bubble continues to simmer away as investors increasingly pile into the only game in town. It has all the hallmarks of a late-cycle market, with sentiment riding high and big bets being placed. The mid-October volatility spike goes to show that even if and as things move higher, it’s an environment where the slightest spook can send shudders through an otherwise complacent crowd.For SG users only, a tool to boost your purchasing power a

The stock/bond ratio is something investors the world over pay attention to because it both represents the most important relative performance line for asset allocators and gives clues on the path of the two main public market asset classes.The Australian stock/bond ratio stands out for a few reasons.Technicals: while there is a fairly clear and strong uptrend in progress the Australian stock/bond ratio is looking very stretched vs trend (we’ve seen this indicator peak in the past when it surged to similar extremes).Valuations: the latest monthly pack shows Australian stocks slightly expensive, and Australian government bonds very cheap. So from a relative value standpoint bonds have the advantage.Macro: that said, as discussed in a recent note on the US Stock/Bond Ratio, for the stock/bon