To The Moon

The US Commercial Real Estate (CRE) market has just been through its third major correction in 40 years. Indeed, the 2020’s downturn has been similar in magnitude to the early-90s downturn and 2008 crisis. But a couple of interesting things stand out. First, those other two major corrections in the commercial real estate market sowed the seeds for decadal booms (a possibility that is completely out of mind for most investors as sentiment on real estate remains deeply pessimistic). The other point of interest is that the bottom looks to already be in, and prices are stabilizing and ticking up again... While there may still be risks, this is the type of thing investors should pay particular attention to, and is exactly the type of setup I hunt for in my work at Topdown Charts. Bonus Chart: R

Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 2 August 2026 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2609(ESmain)$ $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: The S&P500 closed July down -0.1% (but still up +9.4% YTD). Semiconductors have seen a 20%+ correction off the peak. Semiconductors’ seasonality says down, volatility says up. REITs and defensives are sounding a cautionary tone. Resources capex is being crowded out by tech capex. Overall, the carnage that unfolded last week in semiconductors is probably more likely setting up for consolidation an

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2609(ESmain)$ This obscure sentiment indicator just sounded another topping signal. The chart shows the ratio of trading in leveraged long vs short US equity ETFs. It surges when people are disproportionately betting on upside, and collapses then greed gives way to fear and bearishness. As you can see in the chart below, spikes in the indicator have flagged several short-term peaks over the past couple decades. Meanwhile plunges have helped flag numerous market troughs. Like most market timing indicators it does slightly better at picking bottoms than tops (as you might expect dur

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: Mag-7, the 493, cap + equal-weighted S&P500 have all peaked. Market messiness is coming right on schedule (seasonally speaking). Retail trading behavior is consistent with the hints of regime change. Fed rate hike risk echoes global trends, and may weight further on stocks. The backdrop of expensive valuations and low cash allocations is not ideal.

Chart: Bond Bear Market Bonds have been in a 6-year long bear market, with long-term treasuries seeing capital losses of -50% off the peak. Even after factoring in interest received and reinvested (but also adjusting for CPI), those who invested in $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ 20 years ago would be flat-to-negative on their investment. As a result, bonds are Unloved (consensus bearish sentiment), Undervalued (cheap on my indicators), and Underallocated (investor allocations to bonds are at 25-year lows). And I think this could be one of the biggest contrarian setups of our time…

Here’s the topics & takeaways from my latest report —it should give a good sense of what I tend to cover in the Topdown Pro service as well as providing some high-level insights into how I am currently seeing Macro & Markets: 1. Global Growth: the global growth reacceleration theme remains on-track, but there are increasing signs that the global economy may lose momentum into 2027. 2. Inflation Risk: despite an initial peak in some series, upside inflation risk remains a reality given elevated inflation expectations, tight capacity, improved growth, and geopolitics/oil price impacts. 3. GSV vs ULG: relative value extremes favor Global/Small/Value vs US/Large/Growth, but on all three counts a turning point in relative performance remains elusive (still only stop-start progress). 4.

The global economy has been riding the tailwinds from successive waves of monetary policy easing —and this has been a key factor behind the reacceleration we’ve seen this year (despite all that’s been going on in the world). But now those tailwinds are beginning to turn as central banks pivot back to rate hikes. With lingering upside risks to inflation, we’re likely to see more and more central banks pivot to rate hikes. So we’re going to be heading into 2027 with a distinctly different macro picture to that seen in 2026 as tailwinds turn to headwinds.

Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 19 July 2026 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ $Philadelphia Semiconductor Index(SOX)$ Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: The cap-weighted S&P500 is being held back by semis. The equal-weighted is looking good, and breadth is trending up. The unwind in Semis and Korean eq

Chart in Focus: Software Relative Value Once prized for their repeatable reliable cashflows and solid pace of growth, software stocks have gone from trading at a major Premium —to now a material Discount vs the rest of tech. The market has jumped to the conclusion that software is a sunset industry in the AI-age (given AI makes coding easier, and has made some software applications obsolete; increasing the pace of disruption). And as we can see in the chart below, relative-valuations have reflected that sentiment almost overnight. But when I see charts like this I think: that’s an extreme, and extremes can be a great source of opportunity. +when I hear the grim prognosis for software I think: wait a minute, if AI is really that useful then why can’t software companies use it? Why can’t the

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ Speculative trading in leveraged ETFs has surged. Investors are increasingly all-in on stocks (portfolio allocations). The Fed is becoming more hawkish (echoing global pivot to rate hikes). July-Oct tends to be a more volatile time of the year (historical averages). A long-term trend change is underway in US vs Global relative performance. Overall, a n