To The Moon

As noted, the setup I just outlined above if it comes to pass will present near and pressing upside risk to inflation… and that will come at a time where global growth reacceleration risk is starting to become a reality + as the chart below shows the Great Disinflation has stalled.I don’t think we get a repeat in magnitude of the 2021/22 surge in inflation, but we are clearly into the higher-for-longer rate of inflation timeline, and that’s going to have important implications for the path of monetary policy, bond yields, and ultimately both yield sensitive assets and the stockmarket as a whole if things end up getting disruptive.So I am advocating a cautious stance on equities given they are so overvalued, a cautiously optimistic stance on bonds (they are cheap), and a highly bullish stan

Commodities have become a forgotten asset class — they fell into a cyclical bear market after peaking back in 2022, and with other assets faring much better I guess it kind of makes sense that investors have begun to ignore this corner of the market.But things are changing and it’s time to remember commodities, because commodities will remember us!First, straight into the chart: it shows the historical seasonal pattern of commodity prices (diversified GSCI Light-energy index) and WTI crude oil $Micro WTI Crude Oil - main 2503(MCLmain)$ .More to the point: it’s showing a seasonal tendency for strength in H1 for commodities — this is a big deal for a couple of reasons...And before you go on about the fallibility of seasonality (and it is fallib

This week I covered the following topics/ideas:1. China Macro: The cyclical outlook for China is turning up as stimulus measures announced last year (and likely more to come) helped earnings revisions, property prices, and PMI data into recovery mode.2. Commodities: Bullish commodities on improving technicals, intermarkets, sentiment, macro, valuations (albeit waiting to see a breakout of that major trading range).3. Commodity Equities: Bullish global commodity equities on improving technicals, improved commodity price outlook, supportive valuations, and potential inflation risk hedging aspect.4. Oil & Energy Stocks: Bullish crude oil price outlook as technicals improve, supply vs demand outlook remains supportive, and Trump 2.0 brings mixed bag with clear upside risk.5. Agri/Grains: C

Initial breakout in Gold $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ , surge in Silver $Silver - main 2503(SImain)$ shorts (squeeze coming?), Deep Value in Gold Miners, and a look at who Holds the most Gold...Breakout?Legendary Technical Analyst Peter L Brandt highlights the recent bullish developments in gold (initial breakout of triangle formation). However, he later outlined elsewhere a couple of possible warning signs (e.g. the “Millenium Effect“, and the futures/spot premium spike), so it’s not necessarily going to be a straightforward path.Silver ShortsElsewhere, SubuTrade highlights the spike in short interest in Silver ETF (SLV) — and notes with regards to the initial bottom in bonds; “a bond market rally

Earnings Share of Super Sectors:  staying with the topic of earnings and percentage shares, this chart shows the earnings share/weight of the 3 core “super sectors” of the S&P 500 $.SPX(.SPX)$ . And there are some very interesting cyclical and structural themes here.First, I’ve grouped the main GICS sectors into “super sectors” to reflect previous changes in sector classifications and economic/market realities. They are: Defensives = Utilities, Consumer Staples, Healthcare; Tech (+tech related) = Information Technology, Communication Services (~45% Facebook $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ & Google $Alphabet(GOOG)$

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $.DJI(.DJI)$ $GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJIA)$ The stockmarket is rebounding off oversold conditions.Surveyed sentiment has reset from bullish to bearish.Yet retail flows have transitioned from doubt to hype.There are 3 very different historical stat steers for this year.Defensives’ earnings share has reached a decade+ low.Overall, I would say mixed signals is a good summary of the themes from this

For the past decade it seems all roads across the Global capital markets have lead to America. And in all fairness this has been entirely the right path to travel, at least when it comes to investment returns.After staring into the abyss in 2008/09, a great reset in valuations across US asset classes set the scene for great opportunity to come from great crisis.A few other things did, in hindsight, go very well for America throughout this period. There was massive and prolonged monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve (along with fiscal stimulus in the early stages of the economic recovery), capital flight from Europe as it dealt with rolling crises, and there was also a literal and metaphorical striking of oil (the shale oil boom, and striking tech stock oil with the rise and global dom

2024 Returns in Perspective $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ Krishan Gopaul of the World Gold Council highlights how 2024 was the 9th highest annual return for Gold in US$ since 1971. Two things standout on this chart to me; first is how high returns have been in the past, second is how it’s not uncommon to see clustering of high returns (e.g. 2009-10, 1972-4).Gold 2025 ForecastsPeter Redward of About Gold shares Reuters’ survey of 34 institutional analyst forecasts for the (US$) gold price in 2025. He observes: “the average year-end forecast [for 2025] is US$2,700/oz (+2.7%YoY) while the median is slightly lower at USD 2,674/oz (+1.5%YoY). However, there does appear to be a skew towards a more optimistic outlook, with the range quite wide at USD 2,

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts:Market breadth is undergoing a regime change (bearish).Election cycle seasonality is ranging and volatile in Q1.Retail speculators just went all-in on stocks.The US index is becoming more concentrated (just like RoW).Margin expansion has been more a feat of financial vs tech innovation.Overall, as noted there appears to be a bearish regime change underway in the US stockmarket. This comes after an extended strong bull-run, and amidst numerous late-cycle signals showing up. This week we explore these changes and a few other key issues around market structure and fundamentals.As we head towards political regime change, it seems the market is also in the process of undergoing a regime change. S&P500 $

These are the charts that I feel best capture the key macro/asset allocation issues relevant to investors right now or set to soon come onto the radar.1. Recession or Resurgence? This is really the big macro question for 2025; do the various weak spots spread and combine with (geo)politics + the long and variable lags of monetary tightening + fiscal reforms —to result in full blown recession?Or does an inventory (restocking) cycle + global monetary easing tailwinds + China stimulus — combine to trigger an economic reacceleration (+inflation resurgence)?This chart sets the scene on both respects (it represents both current weakness and potential strength), and will play a key part in ongoing real-time monitoring.2. The Macro Risk Sandwich: This chart also puts the “macro-risk-sandwich” of r