Mag 7 Valuations Dip But Still Expensive: How Do Analysts Expect FOMC?
US stocks are once again caught in a sell-off.
Rhys Williams, Chief Investment Officer of Wayve Capital, stated that the market will remain volatile until April 2nd. The April 2nd date he refers to marks the implementation of Trump's so-called "reciprocal tariffs," with tariffs on agricultural products also taking effect on the same day.
The market is awaiting the FOMC decision, but it seems unlikely there will be any positive news.
Probability of Rate Cut Only 1%?
Tiger US Securties Analysts believe:
Powell is likely to continue with data-driven statements.
Currently, the trend of economic weakness is not yet obvious, and combined with the uncertainty of the tariff policies' impact on inflation, the Fed has no reason to cut rates at this point. Therefore, tomorrow's market focus will be on the dot plot and Powell's speech.
Data from 2025 suggests that, on one hand, economic data does show signs of weakness, and the stock market has already experienced a certain level of correction.
On the other hand, inflation has not shown a clear slowdown, and with significant uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies, the possibility of an early dovish shift is small.
Mag 7 Valuations Fall Back to Pre-ChatGPT Levels: But Still Too Expensive?
The valuations of the "Mag 7" tech stocks have returned to levels seen when ChatGPT was first launched. Meta dropped 3.7% yesterday, and all MAG 7 stocks have turned negative year-to-date.
Tiger Securities Analyst believe the valuations remain high:
Currently, $S&P 500(.SPX)$’s NTM P/E is 20.3, which is at the 81.76th percentile historically. Despite recent declines, US stocks are still not cheap. Even if valuations only drop to the 75th percentile, it suggests that the market could still face a 10% downside.
S&P 500’s NTM PEG is 1.9, which is at the 88.6th percentile. Market's expectations for future EPS growth are not particularly high and cannot justify the current high valuations.
Are they too expensive now or entering a fair valuation zone?
Which MAG 7 stock do you favor? Or are you looking to buy the dip in MAGS?
Do you agree with analysts’ view on US stock valuations?
What’s your trade plan under current circumstances?
Leave your comments and also post to win tiger coins~
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MAG 7估值仍然较高，标准普尔P 500的NTM市盈率处于第81百分位。尽管一些大型科技股已经回调，但疲弱的盈利增长预期使得当前价格难以证明其合理性。我宁愿等待更好的入场点，也不愿过早追涨。
鉴于不确定性，我保持谨慎并观察更深的调整。如果估值进一步压缩，可能会出现更强劲的买入机会。目前，在采取任何行动之前，我将重点关注宏观经济趋势和美联储的前景。 $S&P 500 Index(.SPX)$ $标普500ETF(SPY)$
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerGPT
US stocks are once again caught in a sell-off.
Rhys Williams, Chief Investment Officer of Wayve Capital, stated that the market will remain volatile until April 2nd. The April 2nd date he refers to marks the implementation of Trump's so-called "reciprocal tariffs," with tariffs on agricultural products also taking effect on the same day.
The market is awaiting the FOMC decision, but it seems unlikely there will be any positive news.
Are they too expensive now or entering a fair valuation zone?
Which MAG 7 stock do you favor? Or are you looking to buy the dip in MAGS?
Do you agree with analysts’ view on US stock valuations?
What’s your trade plan under current circumstances?
Leave your comments and also post to win tiger coins~
2025年的數據表明，一方面，經濟數據確實出現疲軟跡象，股市也已經出現了一定程度的回調。
另一方面，通脹並未出現明顯放緩，且特朗普關稅政策存在重大不確定性，提前轉向鴿派的可能性較小。
从估值角度看，美股整体确实偏贵，尤其是科技龙头股。MAG 7在过去一年因AI热潮被市场疯狂追捧，但如果EPS增长无法匹配当前估值，调整可能会继续。以Nvidia为例，其股价在过去两年暴涨，但市场预期未来增速可能放缓，市盈率也可能面临压缩。相比之下，Microsoft和Google虽然估值不低，但其盈利模式更稳定，AI业务也有长期增长潜力。
我个人认为，目前市场风险偏高，短期并不是最好的加仓时机。如果标普500回调到4,600-4,800区间，或者PEG回落至1.5以下，我会更愿意逢低布局。此外，结合美联储货币政策变化，观察市场对降息预期的调整，也会是决定入场时机的重要因素。目前的策略是降低仓位，保留流动性，等待更好的风险回报比。
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