Mag 7 Valuations Dip But Still Expensive: How Do Analysts Expect FOMC?
US stocks are once again caught in a sell-off.
Rhys Williams, Chief Investment Officer of Wayve Capital, stated that the market will remain volatile until April 2nd. The April 2nd date he refers to marks the implementation of Trump's so-called "reciprocal tariffs," with tariffs on agricultural products also taking effect on the same day.
The market is awaiting the FOMC decision, but it seems unlikely there will be any positive news.
Probability of Rate Cut Only 1%?
Tiger US Securties Analysts believe:
Powell is likely to continue with data-driven statements.
Currently, the trend of economic weakness is not yet obvious, and combined with the uncertainty of the tariff policies' impact on inflation, the Fed has no reason to cut rates at this point. Therefore, tomorrow's market focus will be on the dot plot and Powell's speech.
Data from 2025 suggests that, on one hand, economic data does show signs of weakness, and the stock market has already experienced a certain level of correction.
On the other hand, inflation has not shown a clear slowdown, and with significant uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies, the possibility of an early dovish shift is small.
Mag 7 Valuations Fall Back to Pre-ChatGPT Levels: But Still Too Expensive?
The valuations of the "Mag 7" tech stocks have returned to levels seen when ChatGPT was first launched. Meta dropped 3.7% yesterday, and all MAG 7 stocks have turned negative year-to-date.
Tiger Securities Analyst believe the valuations remain high:
Currently, $S&P 500(.SPX)$’s NTM P/E is 20.3, which is at the 81.76th percentile historically. Despite recent declines, US stocks are still not cheap. Even if valuations only drop to the 75th percentile, it suggests that the market could still face a 10% downside.
S&P 500’s NTM PEG is 1.9, which is at the 88.6th percentile. Market's expectations for future EPS growth are not particularly high and cannot justify the current high valuations.
Are they too expensive now or entering a fair valuation zone?
Which MAG 7 stock do you favor? Or are you looking to buy the dip in MAGS?
Do you agree with analysts’ view on US stock valuations?
What’s your trade plan under current circumstances?
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MAG 7 valuations remain elevated, with the S&P 500’s NTM P/E at the 81st percentile. While some big tech stocks have pulled back, weak earnings growth expectations make current prices hard to justify. I’d prefer to wait for better entry points rather than chasing the dip too early.
Given the uncertainty, I’m staying cautious and watching for a deeper correction. If valuations compress further, stronger buying opportunities could emerge. For now, I’m focusing on macroeconomic trends and the Fed’s outlook before making any moves. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$
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美股再次陷入抛售。
Wayve Capital首席投资官Rhys Williams表示，市场将在4月2日之前保持波动。他所指的4月2日标志着特朗普所谓“互惠关税”的实施，农产品关税也在同一天生效。
市场正在等待FOMC的决定，但似乎不太可能有任何利好消息。
它们现在是太贵了还是进入了公平的估值区域？
你喜欢哪只MAG 7股票？或者您想逢低买入MAGS？
你同意分析师对美股估值的看法吗？
在目前的情况下，你的交易计划是什么？
留下你的评论，也发帖赢老虎币~
2025年的數據表明，一方面，經濟數據確實出現疲軟跡象，股市也已經出現了一定程度的回調。
另一方面，通脹並未出現明顯放緩，且特朗普關稅政策存在重大不確定性，提前轉向鴿派的可能性較小。
从估值角度看，美股整体确实偏贵，尤其是科技龙头股。MAG 7在过去一年因AI热潮被市场疯狂追捧，但如果EPS增长无法匹配当前估值，调整可能会继续。以Nvidia为例，其股价在过去两年暴涨，但市场预期未来增速可能放缓，市盈率也可能面临压缩。相比之下，Microsoft和Google虽然估值不低，但其盈利模式更稳定，AI业务也有长期增长潜力。
我个人认为，目前市场风险偏高，短期并不是最好的加仓时机。如果标普500回调到4,600-4,800区间，或者PEG回落至1.5以下，我会更愿意逢低布局。此外，结合美联储货币政策变化，观察市场对降息预期的调整，也会是决定入场时机的重要因素。目前的策略是降低仓位，保留流动性，等待更好的风险回报比。
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