Trump 🤝 Fed: Will You Bet on S&P Big Rebound or EM Markets?
Yesterday, the market was greeted with three pieces of positive news in quick succession.
Trump hinted at a major shift in the trade war, saying that tariffs on Chinese goods would be “significantly reduced — though not to zero.”
Trump told reporters he never intended to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent signaled a softer stance on tariffs during a closed-door meeting hosted by JPMorgan in Washington, suggesting that trade tensions may ease.
A Big Bounce Coming for US Stocks?
According to Emma Wu, a global quantitative and derivatives strategist at JPMorgan, retail investors net bought $2.2 billion worth of stocks as of Monday, well above the one-month average.
So, is the market gearing up for a meaningful rally? From both a technical and liquidity perspective, things are lining up — but the key question remains: Is now still the best time to bet on U.S. markets?
Some data point out that every bear market has relief rallies — but they often lead to even lower lows.
The End of US Exceptionalism?
For the past 15 years, the U.S. economy has dominated global markets, and dollar-denominated assets have attracted outsized capital. But now, the tide may be turning.
The fiscal expansion that once fueled the U.S. economy is fading, while China and Europe are stepping on the gas with new stimulus measures. From a global asset allocation perspective, the market looks like it’s been dealt an UNO Reverse card:
U.S.: From fiscal expansion to tightening
China & Europe: From the sidelines to stimulus
As the dollar enters a downward trajectory, capital is beginning to flow back into emerging market (EM) assets.
Where Are the Opportunities in EM?
Latin America may be one of the most undervalued asset classes in the world right now. In Brazil, for instance, you can buy inflation-linked government bonds (TIPS) offering a real yield of 8%, with nominal 10-year rates approaching 15% — extremely attractive for yield-seeking investors.
At the same time, Chinese tech stocks are trading near historical lows, with P/E ratios around 10. In contrast, the "Mag 7" in U.S. tech (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, Nvidia, and Tesla) are mostly trading at P/E ratios over 20, with Tesla exceeding 100. In terms of both growth potential and valuation recovery, Asia-Pacific tech assets present a compelling case.
At this crossroads, where will you place your bets?
Bet on US stock rebound? $S&P 500(.SPX)$
Or do you see greater upside in emerging markets, as global capital quietly begins to rotate?
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Yesterday, the market was greeted with three pieces of positive news in quick succession.
Trump hinted at a major shift in the trade war, saying that tariffs on Chinese goods would be “significantly reduced — though not to zero.”
Trump told reporters he never intended to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent signaled a softer stance on tariffs during a closed-door meeting hosted by JPMorgan in Washington, suggesting that trade tensions may ease.
The fiscal expansion that once fueled the U.S. economy is fading, while China and Europe are stepping on the gas with new stimulus measures.
At this crossroads, where will you place your bets?
Bet on US stock rebound? $S&P 500(.SPX)$
Or do you see greater upside in emerging markets, as global capital quietly begins to rotate?
leave your comments to win tiger coins~
@Success88 @HelenJanet @rL @Universe宇宙 @DiAngel @SPOT_ON @Fenger1188 @Wayneqq @Kaixiang come join
Emerging markets look increasingly attractive, especially as the dollar weakens. Latin America offers compelling real yields — Brazil’s inflation-linked bonds at 8% stand out. Meanwhile, Asia-Pacific tech is trading at much lower valuations than U.S. mega-cap tech, offering both recovery potential and growth.
Right now, I’m leaning more toward emerging markets than chasing a U.S. rally. The global shift from U.S. dominance to broader stimulus-led growth may take time, but I’d rather be early in positioning for that rotation.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars
短期来看，$S&P 500(.SPX)$确实出现了技术性修复的迹象，AI、科技巨头财报将成为多头的催化剂，但我心里清楚，美联储的降息预期已经被反复透支，而企业盈利增速并不匹配现在的估值水平。美股要强势反弹，需要更扎实的经济数据支撑，而不是情绪推动。
反观新兴市场，特别是亚洲市场，受到美元走弱、通胀回落、制造业回暖的共同利好，已经悄悄进入全球资本的雷达。资金开始从美债、美股逐步转向高成长、低估值的新兴资产。越是安静的时候，越是酝酿趋势的关键时刻。
所以，如果问我押注在哪？我会说：美股短期博反弹，核心资金则开始布局下一波新兴市场的慢牛周期。
因此，我只会稍微涉足美国，并通过投资基金考虑新兴市场。没有特别喜欢或首选