[Stock Prediction] Alibaba Earnings: Rally or Selloff?
Alibaba reports Q1 FY2026 earnings on August 29 after the U.S. market close. Wall Street expects revenue of RMB 253.4B (+4.2% YoY) and adjusted EPS of RMB 15.82 (-3.8% YoY). Will AI-driven cloud growth spark a rally, or will massive local-commerce subsidies weigh on profits? $Alibaba(BABA)$ $BABA-W(09988)$
🔍 Key Things to Watch
Alibaba Cloud revenue is expected to hit RMB 31.9B (+20% YoY), driven by rising AI demand. The company’s new Qwen3 model, AI-powered search tools, and broader product upgrades could keep Alibaba ahead of competitors.
Taotian Group (China commerce) is projected to deliver RMB 121.7B (+7.3% YoY), supported by better promotions and improved consumer demand. International commerce stays strong — RMB 34.8B (+19% YoY) — with AliExpress Choice, Lazada, and Trendyol pushing orders higher.
Flash sales are booming after a RMB 50B subsidy program, with 80M+ daily orders. But this aggressive spending is squeezing margins, and analysts are cautious about near-term profitability.
📊 Analyst Sentiment
Morgan Stanley: Price target cut to $150, citing heavy subsidy pressure on short-term earnings.
Benchmark: Buy, target $176; believes subsidies defend market share and bets on long-term AI+Cloud growth.
Mizuho: Neutral, target $149, warns margins could stay under pressure for several quarters.
Alibaba's earnings call will be held on 29 August 2025 at approximately at 19:30 SGT. To set a reminder, please click here
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⏰Event Duration
August 27, 2025-August 29, 2025, 16:00 (SGT)
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The RMB 50B subsidies are clearly driving huge order volume, but they’re also squeezing profits. I understand the need to defend market share, but investors may stay cautious until costs normalize. For me, the bigger focus is whether Taotian and international commerce can sustain steady growth.
Overall, this feels like a mixed quarter. Strong cloud numbers could offset weak margins, but if profitability disappoints, sentiment could turn quickly. I’ll be watching guidance on subsidies before adding more exposure, but I still see Alibaba as a longer-term AI+Cloud play rather than a short-term trade. $Alibaba(09988)$
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1、强势反弹
阿里巴巴-SW股价今年迄今已飙升43%，表现超出预期。
2.AI云增长
该公司的人工智能云业务正在蓬勃发展，对人工智能技术的积极投资预计将推动长期增长。
3.国际电子商务
阿里巴巴-SW的国际电子商务部门终于显示出盈利迹象，为公司的整体增长做出了贡献。
4.刺激顺风
政府的刺激措施正在提振消费者支出，为阿里巴巴-SW的业务提供了额外的推动力。
AI cloud growth is surging, international ECommerce is finally looking profitable. On top of that, stimulus tailwinds from the authorities are nudging increased consumer spending.
I believe that Alibaba will close between up around 5%.
It is time for Alibaba to shine 🌟🌟🌟😍😍😍
@Tiger_Earnings @TigerStars @Tiger_comments @Tiger_SG @CaptainTiger @TigerClub
Strong Buy Rating
12 analysts have given Alibaba a "Strong Buy" rating, with a 12-month price target of $156.09, representing a 27.7% upside potential.
Earnings Growth
Analysts expect Alibaba's earnings to grow by 18.19% in the coming year, driven by strong performance in its core commerce and cloud businesses.
Key Areas to Watch
1. Cloud Revenue Growth
Alibaba's cloud revenue growth will be closely watched, as it continues to invest heavily in AI and cloud infrastructure.
2. Consumer Spending
The impact of government stimulus measures on consumer spending will be crucial in determining Alibaba's earnings performance.
3. AI Innovation
Alibaba's AI innovation and its ability to integrate AI into its business will be key areas of focus for investors.
@MHh @ELI_59 @rL @Wayneqq @melson