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The Nasdaq closed lower but the S&P 500 and the Dow eked out late-session gains on Friday(Nov 7) as investors turned the page on a roller-coaster week with economic worries, the longest-ever federal government shutdown, and sky-high tech stock valuations dampening risk appetite.
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CRCL Guess Up and Down(Single choice)Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

For hedging, I’ve also held selective SPY and QQQ puts with two- to three-week expiries, mainly to offset potential drawdowns from overextended tech valuations. These puts act more as tactical insurance rather than a bearish conviction.
Broadly speaking, I remain moderately bullish into year-end. Liquidity remains abundant, central banks are still cautious about tightening further, and AI-driven revenue expansion continues to impress. However, I expect intermittent profit-taking, especially after strong quarterly results, so I’m keeping position sizes modest and rolling profits quickly rather than chasing rallies.
为了对冲,我还持有了两到三周到期的选择性SPDR标普500指数ETF和QQQ看跌期权,主要是为了抵消科技估值过高带来的潜在回撤。这些看跌期权更多地充当战术保险,而不是看跌信念。
总的来说,我在年底前仍然适度看涨。流动性仍然充裕,各国央行对进一步收紧仍持谨慎态度,人工智能驱动的收入扩张继续给人留下深刻印象。然而,我预计会出现间歇性获利了结,尤其是在强劲的季度业绩之后,因此我保持适度的头寸规模并快速滚动利润,而不是追逐反弹。
不过,若业绩仍处于“投入期”,市场可能会先反应冷淡。毕竟,今年投资者更看重现金流和利润,而不是故事。我的看法是——CRCL的长期逻辑没问题,但短期波动会大。如果电话会议中提到新的金融合作伙伴或区块链整合方案,那将是我考虑加仓的信号。