To The Moon

$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Oracle(ORCL)$ The AI arms race is fueling a massive debt overload that's got Wall Street sweating bullets. Just in the last few months, giants like Meta, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Oracle have piled on $93 billion in fresh bonds to crank up those power-hungry data centers. That's on top of earlier hauls, pushing total AI-fueled borrowing past $150 billion this year alone—nearly six times the decade-long average of $32 billion annually. 😱📉

Oracle's leading the charge into risky territory. They've already scooped up $18 billion in bonds, secured another $38 billion in financing, and grabbed an $18 billion loan to build out AI infrastructure. But here's the kicker: analysts now forecast their net adjusted debt ballooning from $100 billion today to a whopping $290 billion by 2028. With cloud revenue exploding 28% to $7.2 billion in their latest quarter and remaining performance obligations skyrocketing 359% to $455 billion, it looks promising... until you peek at the cash crunch. 🤑🔥

Free cash flow? It's in the red—negative $5.9 billion over the trailing four quarters—as capex outpaces earnings. Operating cash flow held at $21.5 billion yearly, but that's not enough to stem the tide. Shares have tanked from a September peak of $328 to around $236 now, reflecting the jitters. And credit markets are flashing red lights: Oracle's 5-year CDS has spiked to 84 basis points, the highest in over two years and almost double the start-of-year levels. Barclays just downgraded their debt to "Underweight," citing AI spending that's spiraling out of control. 📊⚠️

But it's not just Oracle— the whole sector's on edge. Projections show Big Tech needing $1.5 trillion in investment-grade bonds over the next five years for data centers alone, with 2026 capex topping $400 billion. Smaller players like CoreWeave are borrowing billions without the cash buffers, relying on complex private credit deals that could unravel in a downturn. Morgan Stanley warns of "near-term credit deterioration," while JPMorgan says every corner of the debt market will get tapped. 🌐💸

If AI revenues keep scaling—with Oracle's infrastructure projected to grow 77% to $18 billion this year and new tools like AI Database integrating Grok, Gemini, and ChatGPT—it could be the ultimate payoff. But if the hype fizzles and profits don't catch up, this could dwarf the dot-com crash. High-stakes gamble or masterstroke? The markets are betting both ways. 🤔💰

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