To The Moon

$Webull Corp(BULL)$ $Robinhood(HOOD)$ $Interactive Brokers(IBKR)$ 

🎯 Executive Summary

I’m calling this with the conviction of someone who has survived Black Monday, the dotcom collapse, the 2008 liquidity implosion, the vol extinction of 2017, and the 2022 derivatives crunch. Webull Corporation’s Q3 print is not a routine beat. It is a structural rerating catalyst. Revenue hit $156.9M, up 55.2% year on year and above the $132M consensus. Adjusted EPS was $0.08 versus $0.02 expected, a 300% blowout. Net income flipped positive to $21.7M from a $33.5M loss. Customer assets surged to a record $21.2B, up 84% year on year, powered by $2.1B in net deposits this quarter and $5.9B over the last twelve months.

DARTs climbed in lockstep with 147M options contracts, up 24% year on year and 15.7% quarter on quarter, while equity notional volume exploded 71% quarter on quarter to $204B. Crypto relaunch in the United States and Australia is already contributing, Vega AI rolled out with zero additional capex, corporate bond trading opened to US users, and the Meritz Financial Group partnership unlocked South Korea’s investor funnel.

Options flow was explosive. Over $1M in net call premium positioned ahead of the print, including a $123K buyer hammering the December $10 calls at a $0.40 average. The largest near term GEX concentration sits at $10. With fundamentals and gamma in alignment, I have seen this setup create multi-week breakouts in cycles going back four decades. This print screams rerate.

💰 Financial Performance Breakdown

Revenue reached $156.9M, up 55.2% year on year and sharply ahead of Q2’s $132M. Trading revenue rose 64% year on year. Equity notional jumped 71% quarter on quarter to $204B. Options volumes reached 147M contracts, up 24% year on year and 15.7% from Q2.

Adjusted operating profit came in at $36.7M, rising $42.1M year on year with a 23.4% margin, a 28.7 point expansion. Adjusted net income reached $32.9M, up $38.6M year on year.

Operating expenses rose only 13%, a fraction of revenue growth, confirming powerful operating leverage.

Interest income reached $36.3M. Handling charges totalled $23.3M. Market making rebates hit $83.6M, up from $51.4M.

Contra revenue increased to $3.66M from $0.74M due to higher deposit incentives.

Customer assets finished at $21.2B, up 84% year on year. Funded accounts reached 4.93M, up 9%. Registered users reached 25.9M, up 17%.

This financial profile mirrors the early monetisation curves I saw during Robinhood’s scale phase and other high velocity fintech rerates.

🛠️ Strategic Headwinds and Execution Risk

I traded through markets that humbled even the strongest setups, so I respect every risk signal. Marketing spend dropped 39% to $29.4M. If organic flows weaken, funded account growth may soften.

Trading revenue, at 64% of the top line, remains linked to market activity. A sharp macro slowdown can compress volumes quickly.

Interest income remains material. Rate cuts expected later in 2025 could reduce this line although Webull’s multi product mix in crypto, equities, options, and corporate bonds gives it more resilience than earlier stage peers.

The gap between registered users and funded accounts remains large, although the shift toward higher quality clients using corporate bonds and Vega AI tools indicates rising wallet share.

Crypto’s revenue contribution is undisclosed beyond management calling it “not insignificant”. The relaunch is early but encouraging.

Integration of Webull Pay must continue smoothly to preserve the $1.2B in acquired assets.

Risks exist, but they are offset by multiple structural tailwinds I rarely see all aligned in one quarter.

🧠 Analyst and Institutional Sentiment

Sentiment is turning meaningfully positive. Analysts point to Webull’s Netherlands launch in September, Level 3 options capability in Canada and Singapore, and the Meritz Financial Group partnership in South Korea announced on 12 November. Non US funded accounts now exceed 700K.

Institutional call flow surged. Over $1M in net call premium concentrated around the print. Sweeps targeted $9, $9.5, $10, $11, and $12.5 strikes.

The defining flow was the $123K sweep for the December $10 calls, 3,089 contracts executed between 10:20 AM and 10:30 AM at a $0.40 average.

Unusual Whales flagged $135K in daily premium.

The GEX chart shows the largest positive gamma at $10. A veteran knows this is not noise. Gamma plus fundamentals equals directionality that can persist for weeks. This is why institutions love rerates like this.

📉📈 Technical Setup

The charts confirm accumulation.

On the 4H timeframe, price sits near $8.35 within a descending channel framed by Keltner and Bollinger structures. EMA 13, EMA 21, and EMA 55 are tightly stacked, signalling volatility compression. The lower Keltner boundary near $8.00 has been tested multiple times and held, creating a clear demand shelf.

Bollinger bands narrowed aggressively, a classic precursor to expansion.

The 30 minute chart shows compression between $8.10 and $8.60, with price rejecting breakdowns and reclaiming the EMA 55 at $8.50.

The 15 minute chart printed a clean reversal candle at $8.44, marking a pivot low.

Net call premium charts show rising accumulation while put premium remains muted.

A close above $8.70 with volume unlocks $9.20.

Above $9.20, the $10 target becomes statistically likely due to gamma pressure and a liquidity pocket visible on the one year price chart.

If $10 breaks, $11.20 becomes the fast target.

Support sits at $8.00. Invalidation at $7.70 if structure breaks.

🌍 Macro and Peer Context

Fintech is benefiting from rising retail participation and stabilising volatility. DARTs rose sharply across platforms.

Webull outpaced HOOD and IBKR in customer asset growth, revenue acceleration, and options contract expansion.

Crypto’s relaunch opens a new growth vector. Corporate bonds diversify margin structure. Vega AI and prediction markets create high torque monetisation with zero additional capex.

The Netherlands launch marks Webull’s formal EU presence.

The Meritz Financial Group partnership gives Webull one of the strongest footholds in South Korea, a market historically dominated by domestic brokers.

Macro conditions remain constructive. Rates are stable, options interest is rising, and speculative appetite in crypto and tech equities is firming. I have traded every Fed pivot cycle since the 1980s. This environment favours platforms like Webull.

📊 Valuation and Capital Health

Adjusted operating profit of $36.7M, rising margins, and $21.2B in customer assets confirm that scale economics are taking hold.

Cash and equivalents of $654.8M provide resilience.

Debt remains minimal.

Contra revenue of $3.66M is manageable and acquisition related.

Consensus PT sits near $11. At a roughly $4B market cap and with this growth velocity, the stock remains undervalued relative to its earnings trajectory.

⚖️ Verdict and Trade Plan

Strong Buy. This setup mirrors the early phases of the most profitable fintech rerates I have captured in my career.

Entry: $8.10 to $8.40 during dips.

Stop: $7.70 if Keltner structure fails.

Base target: $9.20.

Stretch target: $10.00.

Momentum target: $11.20 if $10 breaks with volume.

Catalysts include Vega AI adoption, Meritz inflows, Webull Pay integration, crypto scaling, prediction market growth, and Q4 guidance.

🏁 Conclusion

I’m certain this quarter marks Webull’s evolution from a fast growing fintech into a global, profitable, multi asset trading ecosystem. Profitability is accelerating, customer assets are compounding, user quality is rising, and call flow is declaring where informed capital expects this stock to go. Vega AI, prediction markets, corporate bonds, and international expansion are long term value creators. This is not a transient pop. It is the beginning of a structural rerating. The market has not fully priced it in. I have. Execution wins. Data wins. This print is the inflection.

📌 Key Takeaways

• Revenue $156.9M, up 55.2% year on year

• Adjusted EPS $0.08, a 300% beat

• Customer assets $21.2B, up 84%

• Net deposits $2.1B in Q3, $5.9B TTM

• Options 147M contracts, up 24%

• Over $1M in net call premium, including a $123K whale

• GEX magnet centred at $10

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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