Gold’s Parabolic Run to Hit Targets Early? When Will the Party End?
$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ is no longer just a slow-moving safe-haven asset—its price action is starting to look like a high-growth tech stock, with explosive momentum. While markets are still debating AI commercialization, gold has already surged past $4,800 in January, leaving many Wall Street banks’ annual forecasts far behind. $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$
1) Wall Street’s “Collective Miss”: A Gold Rally They Can’t Catch
Looking back at last year, an interesting pattern emerged: gold kept rising, and analysts repeatedly raised their targets just to chase the trend. As we enter 2026, the same movie seems to be playing again.
Morgan Stanley previously expected gold to reach $4,800 by year-end, yet the market “hit” that target before January even ended. This collective lag in expectations suggests a deeper repricing may be underway—driven by global central-bank de-dollarization and renewed safe-haven demand.
2) Step-Ladder Targets: When Technicals and Institutional Forecasts Align
Combining the current Elliott Wave structure with the latest institutional consensus, here’s a roadmap:
Short-term target: $5,000 (a psychological line in sight)
Gold is only about 2.3% away from this level. HSBC and Deutsche Bank expect gold to challenge this key psychological mark in the near term. If gold can hold above $5,000, it would effectively enter a “low-resistance zone.”
Mid-term target: $5,250–$5,300 (sub-wave 5 acceleration)
This range is a key resistance zone based on Fibonacci extensions. BofA and JPM have moved quickly to keep up with the market, lifting their 2026 targets into this band. It also matches the “secondary Wave 5 within Wave 3” type of breakout behavior we’re observing.
Long-term target: $5,900–$6,000 (late-stage major Wave 5)
This is the most aggressive endpoint projection for the current bull cycle. More bullish houses such as Yardeni Research and Jefferies argue that under extreme inflation pressure or a further escalation in geopolitics, a major Wave 5 sprint could point directly toward $6,000 as early as this year.
3) When Will the Party End?
In commodities, Wave 5 is often the most explosive phase—powered by fundamentals and FOMO. But investors should watch for two classic “end-of-run” signals:
Exhaustion gap / blow-off behavior: a near-vertical push toward $6,000 alongside a sharp surge in volume—often signaling buyer fatigue.
Real rates turning higher: if inflation data falls faster than expected and real yields spike, the rising opportunity cost of holding gold can become a major headwind. Gold may retreat to $4200-4400 during major wave 4.
Community Discussion
If gold hits $5,000 before February, do you expect a healthy pullback or a straight launch toward $5,900?
Do you trust JPM’s more “steady” target ($5,055) or Yardeni’s aggressive call ($6,000)?
Drop your sharpest take in the comments to win tiger coins!
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If gold hits $5,000 before February, do you expect a healthy pullback or a straight launch toward $5,900?
Do you trust JPM’s more “steady” target ($5,055) or Yardeni’s aggressive call ($6,000)?
Drop your sharpest take in the comments to win tiger coins!
If gold reaches $5,000 before February, I expect a pullback, but likely a shallow and healthy one. A pause toward the $4,700–$4,800 zone would help reset momentum, while a straight vertical surge toward $5,900 would feel more like late-stage exhaustion.
Between JPM and Yardeni, I lean toward JPM’s steady outlook in the near term, while viewing Yardeni’s $6,000 call as a tail-risk scenario. For me, $5,000 is a checkpoint, $5,250–$5,300 is the volatility zone, and $6,000 requires clear euphoria and added macro stress.
@TigerClub @TigerStars @Tiger_comments
I would most probably go with the the more measured, consensus-oriented JPM target for the 2026 timeline. A move to $5,000 would likely be met with a corrective phase, and reaching Yardeni's $6,000 target this year would require an acceleration of the already high risk aversion and extreme market conditions.
But one thing I know for sure is that Gold is regarded as a safe haven asset in a world fraught with geopolitical tensions and uncertainties.
So it makes perfect sense to invest in a Gold ETF such as $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD)$ or $iShares Gold Trust(IAU)$ as a counterbalance against the volatility in the markets.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerClub @CaptainTiger
On targets: JPM $5,055 is the more reliable base-case anchor. Yardeni $6,000 is a valid bullish scenario if policy volatility and risk premium stay elevated. Use JPM for trims, Yardeni as stretch upside.
May be quite different from equities pull back scenarios.
I guess it wouldn't pull back much even if breach 5k, unless countries level offload it. cheers. [Smile] [Smile]
"Stair-Step" Pattern: In strong bull markets, gold prices often move in a "stair-step" fashion a sharp rally followed by a period of consolidation, then another rally. This suggests that if the fundamental drivers (e.g., high inflation, geopolitical risk) remain in place, the upward trend can continue.
New Price Floors: After a significant rally, previous resistance levels can become new support levels, establishing higher price floors.
“黄金连续上涨，分析师多次上调目标”
事实证明，预测总是在安全的方面出错，而且几乎总是错误的。
因此，对此持保留态度，在上下文中看待新闻和预测，但要做好尽职调查。
有了一个松散的大炮作为美国总统，黄金将会非常闪亮，这听起来很疯狂，但现在甚至6000听起来也是可能的。