SIA Revenue Record High & Yield Recovery! Is It Entering Second Spring?
This Wednesday, $SIA(C6L.SI)$ surged to a seven-month intraday high of S$7.19. Despite intensifying industry competition and downward pressure on pricing, SIA's Passenger Yield unexpectedly staged a turnaround. Is this a short-term technical bounce, or the starting gun for a new bull cycle?
1. Record Revenue vs. "Halved" Profit? The Biggest Surprise is Yield Pivot
According to the 3QFY2026 (third quarter) results, SIA delivered a set of paradoxical figures:
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Revenue: Reached S$5.51 billion, up 5.5% year-on-year, setting a new quarterly record.
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Net Profit: S$505 million, a year-on-year plunge of 68.9%.
The profit crash was not due to poor operations, but rather a high base effect. Last year’s quarter included a S$1.1 billion one-off accounting gain (primarily from the Vistara disposal). If strip out these one-off items, SIA’s operating profit actually grew by nearly 26%.
Highlight: Passenger Yield staged a turnaround.
Over the past year, as global aviation capacity recovered and low-cost carriers (LCCs) ramped up competition, airfares have faced significant downward pressure. However, SIA’s passenger yield grew 1.9% year-on-year this quarter.
This suggests SIA has regained pricing power. Whether it is the inelastic demand for Business Class or premium holiday travel, SIA remains one of the few airlines capable of making passengers pay a premium for the "Singapore Girl" brand.
2. Stock Falls After New High: What is Market Worried About?
SIA loses 1% after yesterday's new high. Despite the glittering revenue, SIA is not without its challenges. When compared to Asia-Pacific peers, market consensus remains divided.
Associates "Dragging the Chain"
This quarter, SIA recognized S$178 million in losses from associated companies, largely driven by Air India. The integration pains of the Indian market are lasting longer than expected, becoming a primary "black hole" for net earnings.
Soft Cargo Demand:
Cargo revenue fell 5.4% year-on-year, reflecting uncertainty in global trade recovery, creating a stark contrast to the booming passenger segment.
3. Institutional Outlook: A Tug-of-War Between Bulls and Bears
In the face of this rally, top investment banks have offered sharply different advice:
DBS Group Research:
Bullish (Hold/Buy bias, target prices adjusted toward S$6.50–$7.20 range) DBS views the yield improvement as a "inflection point" signal. Analyst Tabitha Foo noted that SIA's Premiumisation strategy is paying off, and this pricing edge is expected to hold through Q4, offsetting cargo weakness.
Citi Research:
Bearish (Maintaining "Sell" rating, target price S$6.28) While analyst Kaseedit Choonnawat admitted performance exceeded expectations and expected a positive short-term market reaction, he remains concerned about long-term competitive pressures and Air India's uncertainty. Citi believes the current stock price has already priced in the good news.
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Is it too late to buy in or good news already priced in?
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Do you think Air India’s losses are "temporary growing pains"?
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How much longer can SIA’s "High-Price Strategy" be sustained?
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Revenue: Reached S$5.51 billion, up 5.5% year-on-year, setting a new quarterly record.
Net Profit: S$505 million, a year-on-year plunge of 68.9%.
Despite a 69% plunge in headline net profit due to missing one-off gains and Air India losses, the core business is actually flying high. Bulls are cheering a record $5.5B in quarterly revenue and a 26% jump in operating profit driven by robust travel demand. 📈
Will SIA's strong operating performance and passenger demand outweigh the pressure of rising fuel costs for your portfolio?👇
Monthly Chart TA: https://ttm.financial/post/536451537248992
@Tiger_SG @TigerStars @Tiger_comments
Of course, risks remain. Losses from Air India and weaker cargo demand are clear drags. I see Air India more as long-term strategic pain rather than structural damage, but the timeline for improvement will be key to sentiment.
At current levels, I think much of the good news is priced in. I’m cautiously constructive — not chasing highs, but open to accumulating on pullbacks if yield momentum sustains.
@TigerClub @TigerStars @Tiger_comments @Tiger_SG
Air India losses look more like long-term restructuring costs than structural failure. India’s aviation market is attractive, but airline turnarounds typically take 5–7 years, so earnings drag may persist near term.
SIA’s high-price strategy can likely hold through 2026 due to premium branding and hub advantage, but industry capacity is returning. As competitors expand, yields may slowly normalise rather than collapse.
Overall: quality cyclical, not peak panic nor early-cycle bargain.