Circle's "Google Moment" Coming? Will You Chase the Growth Story?
Q4 revenue hit $770 million, far exceeding market expectations of $740 million; adjusted EBITDA soared 412% YoY. Following the release of the earnings report, $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ surged nearly 35%! Against the backdrop of overall volatility in the crypto market, this report acted like a "shot of adrenaline," with many even believing that today's Bitcoin rise was driven by Circle.
1. Stellar earnings data proves the 30% surge!
In a market where SaaS is generally being shorted, Circle's subscription revenue is instead growing significantly. It’s not that the subscription model no longer works, but whether your service meets the needs of the new era.
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Revenue: Q4 recorded $770 million, up 77% YoY. Total annual revenue reached $2.75 billion.
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USDC Circulation: Reached $75.3 billion, up 72% YoY; On-chain Volume reached $11.9 trillion in Q4 alone, up 247% YoY.
This figure crushes doubts that Circle would collapse during a Fed rate-cutting cycle. While Fed rate cuts do affect Circle's yield per asset, the surge in USDC circulation has offset the impact of declining yields.
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Profitability (EPS & EBITDA): EPS was $0.43 (market expectation was only $0.16), exceeding expectations by 168%. Adjusted EBITDA recorded $167 million, with a profit margin as high as 54%.
2. Circle's "Google Moment"? New growth story solves market concerns!
In addition to the key figures above, the earnings report also provided a strong response to various past doubts. Circle is transforming from being highly dependent on interest spread income to becoming a more versatile infrastructure, growing from a heavy reliance on distribution platforms like Coinbase to achieving independent and autonomous growth.
If Arc is a "highway" (underlying blockchain) built by Circle, then Circle Payments Network (CPN) is the "toll station, entrance/exit, and logistics center" on that road. Simply put, CPN is a set of payment infrastructure (API-driven) provided by Circle that integrates the traditional banking system with blockchain technology. Its core mission is to solve a century-old puzzle: how to make "fiat in banks" and "digital currency on-chain" convert and complete payments seamlessly.
Top-tier stablecoin issuers all want to build their own "highways." Circle has Arc; Tether also has Stable and Plasma. Only by mastering the underlying Layer 1 can one achieve autonomous gas fees (paying directly with USDC), fully controllable compliance, and absolute sovereignty over asset settlement.
The ceiling for Circle's valuation has been opened. Considering the liquidity from the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, the imminent passage of the Clarity Act, the popularity of the Polymarket prediction market brought by the World Cup, and Meta restarting its stablecoin business... the current stock price is just the starting point. Circle's future is "the stars and the sea."
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In the future, will stablecoins drift further away from cryptocurrencies, or will they continue to drive cryptocurrencies upward?
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Can we still chase the rally after Circle's surge? Or take profits now?
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After BTC's recent rebound, will there be a larger decline or continued bottoming?
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More importantly, Circle is evolving beyond reliance on Coinbase and positioning itself as infrastructure. Arc and its payments network show it wants to own the pipes between banks and blockchain — that’s where the long-term moat lies.
As for strategy, I’m not blindly chasing after such a sharp spike, but I’m also not rushing to take profits if the thesis is strengthening. Stablecoins, in my view, remain the liquidity engine for assets like Bitcoin. Near term, I expect consolidation; structurally, I stay constructive.
@TigerStars @TigerClub @Tiger_comments
While they are becoming more distinct as a "safe-haven" and payment utility, they remain a primary source of liquidity that drives broader cryptocurrency rallies.
The relationship between stablecoins and volatile assets like Bitcoin is shifting toward a complementary but distinct market structure.
我倾向于“短期脱钩、长期共振”。监管清晰后，稳定币会先成为支付层基础设施，但流动性最终仍会回流风险资产。
2️⃣ 股价还能追吗
情绪面已极热，35%跳涨后更像估值重定价而非趋势起点。若是中长期逻辑投资，可以等回撤；短线追高性价比不高。
3️⃣ BTC走势
当前更像流动性驱动的修复行情，在 Federal Reserve 路径未明前，大概率维持震荡筑底，而不是单边行情。
2. Circle’s surge is at a time cryptocoin values have fallen. The catalyst for price growth in cryptocoins is not known at this time with the market in long term decline.
3. $BTC Digital(BTCT)$ is in a long term bear trend which is primed for a rebound to new highs due to increased interest in cryptocoins and high prices for alternatives in gold