To The Moon

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 29Jun2026)

China and Global Manufacturing Signals

China’s manufacturing PMI for June is expected at 50.2, indicating a modest expansion. Beyond China’s domestic manufacturing outlook, this release will also be watched as a signal for broader global demand and market sentiment.

US Manufacturing and Inflation Indicators

· Chicago PMI for June is forecast at 60.0, pointing to strong expansion.

· S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for June is expected at 55.7, also suggesting continued growth.

· ISM Manufacturing PMI for June is forecast at 53.7, reinforcing the growth outlook for the sector.

· ISM Manufacturing Prices for June are expected at 79.0, highlighting persistent inflationary pressure that could be passed on to consumers through product pricing.

US Labour Market Data

· JOLTS job openings are expected at 7.28 million, down from the previous 7.6 million. This will be an important input for the Federal Reserve as it assesses labour market conditions ahead of future interest rate decisions.

· ADP nonfarm employment change for June is forecast at 118,000 jobs.

· Nonfarm payrolls for June are forecast at 114,000 jobs.

· The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%.

· Average hourly earnings are expected to increase by 0.3%.

· Initial jobless claims are forecast at 220,000, providing another labour market data point for the Federal Reserve to consider.

Consumer Confidence

CB Consumer Confidence for June is forecast at 94.2, suggesting a softer outlook among consumers. This release will be closely watched for signs of weakening sentiment and its potential impact on spending trends.

Market Holidays

· Hong Kong markets will be closed on 1 July for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day.

· US markets will be closed on 3 July ahead of Independence Day on 4 July.

Energy Market Indicators

Crude oil inventory data will also be released in the coming week. This will provide a useful reference point for how oil majors and market participants are assessing consumption trends and demand conditions.

Earnings Calendar (29Jun2026)

I am interested in the earnings of Nike, MSC and FactSet in the coming week.

Nike Earnings Preview

Nike’s share price has fallen by more than 43% over the past year. From a technical analysts, the stock is currently rated as a “strong sell”. Analyst sentiment is more constructive, with a “buy” recommendation, an average price target of $55.38, and implied upside of more than 35%.

Income Statement Trends

Total annual revenue increased slightly from $44.5 billion in 2021 to $46.3 billion in 2025. However, revenue exceeded $51 billion in both 2023 and 2024, which suggests a recent pullback in demand.

Gross profit declined modestly from $20.0 billion in 2021 to $19.7 billion in 2025. Nike’s highest gross profit during the period was $22.9 billion in 2024.

Operating income fell sharply from $7.2 billion in 2021 to $3.7 billion in 2025, highlighting meaningful pressure on profitability.

Net income followed a similar pattern, declining from $5.7 billion in 2021 to $3.2 billion in 2025. Nike’s strongest year for net income during this period was 2022.

Balance Sheet Trends

Between 2021 and 2025, Nike’s total assets declined from $37.7 billion to $36.5 billion. The company recorded its highest asset base during this period in 2022, at $40.3 billion. On the liabilities side, Nike reduced total liabilities from $24.9 billion in 2021 to $23.3 billion in 2025. Total debt also moved lower, falling from $12.8 billion to $11.0 billion over the same period.

Cash Flow Trends

Cash flow from operations is a key area to watch. It declined from $6.6 billion in 2021 to $3.6 billion in 2025, although Nike generated its strongest operating cash flow during the period in 2024, at $7.4 billion.

Nike news from Q1/2026 (from Gemini)

Nike’s Q1 2026 performance highlights a cautious turnaround under CEO Elliott Hill, driven by the “Sport Offence” strategy to prioritise performance innovation and repair retail partnerships.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: Flat at $11.3B–$11.7B (down 1%–3% in constant currency).

• Earnings: EPS hit $0.35, beating Wall Street consensus by ~24%.

• Margins: Gross margin compressed to 42.2% due to promotional markdowns and heavy inventory liquidation.

Strategic Pivots

• Wholesale Resurgence: Wholesale revenue grew 5%–7% as Nike reclaimed shelf space at Dick’s and Foot Locker. Conversely, DTC sales fell 4%, led by a 12% drop in digital channels.

• Category Performance: Nike Running surged over 20%, serving as a blueprint for recovery. However, Greater China sales tumbled 10%, and Converse revenue plummeted 27%.

While North American operations are stabilising and $714 million was returned to shareholders, Nike warns that global recovery remains highly uneven.

EARNINGS

The forecast of EPS and revenue for Nike’s coming earnings are $0.119 and $10.85B.

Given the above, I prefer to monitor Nike stock for now.

Market Outlook of S&P500 (29Jun2026)

Technical Analysis Overview

MACD Indicator

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 is on a downtrend.

Chaikin Money Flow

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stands at -0.13, indicating the market has more selling momentum than buying.

Moving Averages

Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows the last candlestick has been above the 50-day moving average (MA50) and the 200-day moving average (MA200). This pattern indicates a bullish shift in both the short and long term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have begun to trend upwards, which indicates a bullish outlook in both the short and long term.

Exponential Moving Averages

The exponential moving average (EMA) lines are showing a bearish outlook.

Other Technical Analysis

Using “Daily” intervals, the technical indicators are showing a “Strong Sell” rating. 6 indicators have a “Buy” rating and 16 indicators have a “Sell” rating.

CNN Fear & Greed Index

The market fell into the “Extreme Fear” zone with a score of 25.

Weekly Outlook

Based on the above, the S&P500 should be Bearish entering the new week.

News and my thoughts from the past week (29Jun2026)

On June 25 data: BlackRock IBIT ~$266M outflow, but Fidelity FBTC had even larger ~$275M outflow same day. Total US BTC ETF net outflow exceeded $690M. GBTC flat. Broader June has seen heavy redemptions overall. Institutions appear cautious, but BTC has shown resilience so far. Context: macro factors + typical summer dynamics at play. - Grok

CNBC just admitted AI demand is falling and that's why SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI are rushing to go public. - X user Financelot

My Investing Muse (29Jun2026)

Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies

The software and cloud computing firm says it had around 141,000 full-time employees as of 31 May 2026, down from about 162,000 workers at the same time last year. The "deployment of AI technologies across our operations has resulted, and may continue to result, in reductions to our workforce," the report says. - BBC

Summary of layoffs by Gemini

The final week of June 2026 saw major workforce reductions driven by aggressive shifts toward AI automation and cooling global consumer demand.

• Automotive: Volkswagen is planning an overhaul that could cut up to 100,000 global jobs. Porsche raised its planned cuts to 3,900 due to crashing margins in China, and Lucid Motors shed 18% (~1,500 roles) to match slumping EV demand.

• Tech & Crypto: Oracle revealed an annual downsizing of 21,000 positions (~13%) as AI automates legacy backend roles. ServiceNow cut hundreds of staff, while Web3 entities Ethereum Foundation and BitGo trimmed 20% and 15% respectively to pivot capital.

• Brands & Gaming: In e-commerce, Lazada laid off 5% of staff to optimise regional margins. In gaming, Bungie slashed 50% of its workforce (400 jobs), and Ubisoft cut 380 roles. Global spirits giant Diageo cut over 300 positions, while Papa John’s trimmed 7% of corporate staff.

While big brands execute massive structural overhauls, broader labour markets remain surprisingly tight, evidenced by US weekly jobless claims dropping lower than expected during the same period.

My muse

Tech leaders like Elon and Tim Cook are highlighting the inflationary pressures that are coming. Given the recent ISM manufacturing price forecast, this is happening in both the short and medium term. Is this temporal?

With the Chinese AI models gaining traction, will the American models lose more market share to the Chinese models? America continues to see more companies using Chinese models. This affects both the costs and the training of the models.

A recent interview with Jeremy Grantham has brought some concerns as he provided a warning about a coming crash and exiting of the markets.

There seems to be more of such warnings i, including Bank of America and JP Morgan. Let us do our own due diligence.

Financial Strategy and Outlook

Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings and divest from businesses losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.

As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

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$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$