To The Moon

Semis have started their journey downhill and I expect 15-20% decline before next rally.

The semiconductor selloff is a wake up call for investors.  Option B: Higher yields require further valuation adjustment is the absolute core driver.  You cannot look at the tech stocks valuation in a vacuum. With the US 30 year Treasury Bond yield blasting to a 19 year high of 5.33%, paying extreme premium for future unproven tech earnings does not make sense.  Higher yields from the US bonds is like a vacuum cleaner, sucking the speculative liquidity out of high beta tech stocks. The selloff isn't happening because AI demand died.  It is happening because macro physics are forcing a standard valuation reset across the entire sector. While Option B tells you why the market is dropping, Option E is the ultimate strategy for turning that red ink into long term wealth. B

I view it as A&E (Accident & Emergency 🦺) [LOL] [LOL] [LOL].... Wait for the set-up to Buy the Deep [Evil] @Aqa @DiAngel @JC888 @Barcode @Shyon @koolgal @Shernice軒嬣 2000

NVIDIA Drops 2.3% Before Earnings — I’m Still Bullish 🚀 NVIDIA just gave investors a better entry point. Shares fell 2.3% Tuesday, as the entire semiconductor complex sold off, with NVDA now sitting around the $225 area ahead of its Aug. 26 earnings. The market is suddenly questioning whether AI spending has gone too far, whether NVIDIA is financing its own demand, and whether challengers like Cerebras and Groq can finally take share. My take? The market is focusing on the wrong risk. I’m bullish into earnings. 1. The fundamental numbers are still extremely hard to ignore NVIDIA’s last quarter was not a company showing signs of slowing down. Q1 FY27 revenue hit $81.6B, +85% YoY, while Data Center revenue reached $75.2B, +92% YoY. Even more important: NVIDIA guided Q2 revenue to approximate

I’m leaning toward A — normal profit-taking, with the AI hardware trend still intact. Tuesday’s semiconductor selloff looks more like a valuation reset than a fundamental breakdown. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell about 5%, while memory and optical names such as SNDK, MU and CRDO were hit much harder than Nvidia. The key issue is macro: the 30-year Treasury yield recently reached its highest level since 2007, while Brent crude moved above $90. That combination naturally pressures high-multiple growth stocks. But AI infrastructure demand has not suddenly disappeared. Memory, storage, networking and GPU demand remain tied to massive data-center investment. So I wouldn’t call this an AI-cycle reversal yet. Instead, I’d watch whether SNDK and MU stabilize and reclaim key moving aver

I see Tuesday’s semiconductor selloff as normal profit-taking and valuation compression rather than a fundamental breakdown. Higher Treasury yields, oil above $90 and crowded AI trades created the perfect setup for a sharp pullback, especially after the strong recent rally in memory and optical stocks. For me, the key point is that AI demand, memory pricing and data-center CapEx remain intact. I’ll be watching the 50-day moving averages, particularly for $Micron Technology(MU)$ and $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ , to see whether the sector can stabilize and reclaim key levels. Personally, I’m leaning toward A + E: normal profit-taking and an opportunity to accumulate in stages. I wouldn’t rush in after one red day

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 5% on Tuesday, with memory, storage and optical-networking stocks leading the decline. There was no clear deterioration in industry fundamentals. Rising Treasury yields, higher oil prices and profit-taking in crowded AI trades combined to trigger a sharp valuation reset. 1. Semiconductor Sentiment Reversed in One Session On Monday, AI storage was one of the strongest areas of the market: SanDisk gained 8.9% Micron rose 4.1% Western Digital, Seagate and optical-networking stocks also advanced One day later, the trade reversed sharply. Stock Tuesday Segment SNDK −9.0% NAND and enterprise SSDs WDC −7.4% Data-center HDDs MU −7.0% DRAM and HBM AMD −4.3% AI processors AVGO −3.2% Custom chips and networking NVDA −2.3% AI GPUs COHR −12.8% Optical networkin

Hello. Three companies reported on Tuesday. Put the three side by side and no order makes sense. $Fabrinet(FN)$ beat on revenue by about 3.1 per cent and on earnings per share by about 7.5 per cent, both records — and closed down 19.38 per cent at US$482.59. $Home Depot(HD)$ beat on both lines, posted net sales of about US$47.9 billion and its best comparable sales since 2022, and reaffirmed full-year guidance — and closed down 0.12 per cent. $BIDU-SW(09888)$ missed on both revenue and profit, with earnings per share about 22.7 per cent short — and closed down 12.73 per cent. Full marks fell 19 per cent, a pass fell 0.

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$’s agreement to support a vast OpenAI data-centre project demonstrates the extraordinary scale of AI infrastructure demand. It also deepens a question investors can no longer ignore: how much future demand is being enabled financially by the company that ultimately expects to sell the chips? Nvidia announced on August 17 that it would invest $1.5 billion in SoftBank-backed SB Energy and provide up to $105 billion of financial guarantees connected with an Ohio data-centre campus leased by OpenAI. The site is intended to reach as much as eight gigawatts, with an initial 800 megawatts expected in 2028. OpenAI’s lease runs for 20 years, and Nvidia will supply the project’s accelerators. Reuters’ August 17 report describes the financing s

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ is slated to report its Q2 2026 earnings on Wed, 26 Aug 2026. Is it timely to take a closer look at the stock prior to its earnings release ? I think so, especially if there is a chance to take a position before a potential rally. According to Investor’s Business Daily (IBD), the AI chip giant is (currently), holding just above a short handle entry. Near Buy Point ? Last week, shares of the AI chipmaker edged up a fraction, coming in at +0.64%, for the week, enough to put it just -4.8% below a $236.54 buy point from a cup-shape base. Interestingly, NVDA already offered an early entry from a short handle, with the 7 Aug 2026 high of $224.76 marking the exact buy point. The Relative Strength line for the AI chip stock is rising,

What deserves the most attention in the U.S. equity market this week is not the movement of the S&P 500 Index itself, but rather the structural changes taking place within the index. From a valuation perspective, the S&P 500’s overall price-to-earnings ratio remains at a relatively elevated level. Valuations in information technology, real estate, industrials, health care, and other sectors are all materially above the broader market, indicating that U.S. equities as a whole still lack a clear valuation cushion. From a fund-flow perspective, SPY has recorded cumulative net inflows of approximately USD 21.6 billion since July, but fund-flow divergence across sectors has become increasingly pronounced. Capital is not simply leaving the equity market; rather, it is being reallocated a

Hello hope your doing well 

Societe Generale's newly launched 5x Long and -5x Short DLCs on the individual Magnificent 7 U.S. stocks have started trading on Wednesday, 12 August. This expansion to 5x U.S. Stock DLCs complements the existing 3x U.S. Stock DLCs range to offer investors more choices in terms of leverage factors. With up to 5x leveraged and inverse exposure to the individual Magnificent 7 stocks' daily percentage performance, investors can express their bullish or bearish views to capture opportunities in both directions of the market. Similar to all the U.S. underlying DLCs, the new 5x DLCs on the Magnificent 7 stocks offer investors a new trading window during SGX market hours when the US market is closed, allowing them to respond to market-moving news during Asian hours. However, investors should note

NVIDIA's $500B AI Deal: The Market May Be Reading It Backwards $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ came under pressure after announcing MOUs with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR to mobilize $500 billion+ of third-party capital for AI infrastructure. The headline sounds like NVIDIA is taking on another huge financing commitment, and Nvidia's 5Y CDS jumps by almost 6 bps after the news. The $500B Is Mainly Someone Else's Capital The key distinction is between stimulating demand and funding demand with NVIDIA’s own balance sheet. NVIDIA has already invested heavily across its ecosystem, including AI labs, neoclouds and infrastructure partners. That raised a legitimate concern: if NVIDIA increasingly has to finance its own customers, AI demand becomes more circular and more of

$GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF(NVDL)$ call got assigned. Would have gotten higher if sell voluntarily. But oh well. Premium did provided some profit too

Avoided the Avalanche in July to maintain 60% return this year. Thanks to $NVIDIA(NVDA)$  $VanEck Gold Miners ETF(GDX)$  

The divergence between $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Nvidia (NVDA) and $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ AMD during recent semiconductor market swings highlights how Wall Street is treating the primary AI market leader versus its closest challenger. Market Dynamics: Leader Search vs. Margin Corrections 1. The Market Is Re-Affirming Nvidia’s Dominant Leadership Hyperscaler CapEx Concentration: Earnings reports from big tech cloud providers (Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon) re-confirmed that AI capital expenditure remains aggressive. Nvidia continues to capture the vast majority of this infrastructure spending due to its integrated hardware-software ecosystem (CUDA) and sold-out 2026 Blackwell GPU capacity. The "Whisper Bar" Diffe

Better than $Western Digital(WDC)$

Sandisk’s FY2026 Q4 results were exceptional. The stock still fell about 3% after hours because FY2027 Q1 revenue guidance missed elevated expectations. How's Q4? Q4 revenue reached $8.97B, up 51% QoQ and 372% YoY. It beat the $8.71B consensus and Goldman Sachs’ $8.84B estimate. Non-GAAP gross margin was 84.6%, versus 83.6% consensus, while adjusted EPS of $39.25 beat consensus by 10.7%. The operating leverage was unusually strong. Revenue rose from roughly $1.9B a year ago to almost $9B, while cost of revenue stayed near $1.38B. Operating expenses increased only about 20%, driving operating income above $7B. Adjusted free cash flow reached $5.04B, equal to 56% of revenue. Data centre demand drove the quarter. Segment revenue reached $2.98B, about 14 times the prior-year level. Edge remain

Just this past Monday, the S&P 500 index successfully broke through its 20-day moving average, while the Nasdaq index solidly reclaimed its 20-week moving average. According to the technical rules I outlined previously, when these two critical indicators are breached simultaneously, we should pivot our stance to the upside in alignment with the trend. Sure enough, within just one day, both major indices surged another few percentage points, and the S&P 500 even came close to returning to its previous high, right where the initial drop began. Looking at this price action, I believe many are already declaring "the return of the king" for US equities, assuming the market has completely finished its shakeout and re-entered a primary uptrend. However, I must issue a warning: the current

NVIDIA Drops 2.3% Before Earnings — I’m Still Bullish 🚀 NVIDIA just gave investors a better entry point. Shares fell 2.3% Tuesday, as the entire semiconductor complex sold off, with NVDA now sitting around the $225 area ahead of its Aug. 26 earnings. The market is suddenly questioning whether AI spending has gone too far, whether NVIDIA is financing its own demand, and whether challengers like Cerebras and Groq can finally take share. My take? The market is focusing on the wrong risk. I’m bullish into earnings. 1. The fundamental numbers are still extremely hard to ignore NVIDIA’s last quarter was not a company showing signs of slowing down. Q1 FY27 revenue hit $81.6B, +85% YoY, while Data Center revenue reached $75.2B, +92% YoY. Even more important: NVIDIA guided Q2 revenue to approximate

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 5% on Tuesday, with memory, storage and optical-networking stocks leading the decline. There was no clear deterioration in industry fundamentals. Rising Treasury yields, higher oil prices and profit-taking in crowded AI trades combined to trigger a sharp valuation reset. 1. Semiconductor Sentiment Reversed in One Session On Monday, AI storage was one of the strongest areas of the market: SanDisk gained 8.9% Micron rose 4.1% Western Digital, Seagate and optical-networking stocks also advanced One day later, the trade reversed sharply. Stock Tuesday Segment SNDK −9.0% NAND and enterprise SSDs WDC −7.4% Data-center HDDs MU −7.0% DRAM and HBM AMD −4.3% AI processors AVGO −3.2% Custom chips and networking NVDA −2.3% AI GPUs COHR −12.8% Optical networkin

Hello. Three companies reported on Tuesday. Put the three side by side and no order makes sense. $Fabrinet(FN)$ beat on revenue by about 3.1 per cent and on earnings per share by about 7.5 per cent, both records — and closed down 19.38 per cent at US$482.59. $Home Depot(HD)$ beat on both lines, posted net sales of about US$47.9 billion and its best comparable sales since 2022, and reaffirmed full-year guidance — and closed down 0.12 per cent. $BIDU-SW(09888)$ missed on both revenue and profit, with earnings per share about 22.7 per cent short — and closed down 12.73 per cent. Full marks fell 19 per cent, a pass fell 0.

The semiconductor selloff is a wake up call for investors.  Option B: Higher yields require further valuation adjustment is the absolute core driver.  You cannot look at the tech stocks valuation in a vacuum. With the US 30 year Treasury Bond yield blasting to a 19 year high of 5.33%, paying extreme premium for future unproven tech earnings does not make sense.  Higher yields from the US bonds is like a vacuum cleaner, sucking the speculative liquidity out of high beta tech stocks. The selloff isn't happening because AI demand died.  It is happening because macro physics are forcing a standard valuation reset across the entire sector. While Option B tells you why the market is dropping, Option E is the ultimate strategy for turning that red ink into long term wealth. B

Semis have started their journey downhill and I expect 15-20% decline before next rally.

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ is slated to report its Q2 2026 earnings on Wed, 26 Aug 2026. Is it timely to take a closer look at the stock prior to its earnings release ? I think so, especially if there is a chance to take a position before a potential rally. According to Investor’s Business Daily (IBD), the AI chip giant is (currently), holding just above a short handle entry. Near Buy Point ? Last week, shares of the AI chipmaker edged up a fraction, coming in at +0.64%, for the week, enough to put it just -4.8% below a $236.54 buy point from a cup-shape base. Interestingly, NVDA already offered an early entry from a short handle, with the 7 Aug 2026 high of $224.76 marking the exact buy point. The Relative Strength line for the AI chip stock is rising,

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$’s agreement to support a vast OpenAI data-centre project demonstrates the extraordinary scale of AI infrastructure demand. It also deepens a question investors can no longer ignore: how much future demand is being enabled financially by the company that ultimately expects to sell the chips? Nvidia announced on August 17 that it would invest $1.5 billion in SoftBank-backed SB Energy and provide up to $105 billion of financial guarantees connected with an Ohio data-centre campus leased by OpenAI. The site is intended to reach as much as eight gigawatts, with an initial 800 megawatts expected in 2028. OpenAI’s lease runs for 20 years, and Nvidia will supply the project’s accelerators. Reuters’ August 17 report describes the financing s

I see Tuesday’s semiconductor selloff as normal profit-taking and valuation compression rather than a fundamental breakdown. Higher Treasury yields, oil above $90 and crowded AI trades created the perfect setup for a sharp pullback, especially after the strong recent rally in memory and optical stocks. For me, the key point is that AI demand, memory pricing and data-center CapEx remain intact. I’ll be watching the 50-day moving averages, particularly for $Micron Technology(MU)$ and $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ , to see whether the sector can stabilize and reclaim key levels. Personally, I’m leaning toward A + E: normal profit-taking and an opportunity to accumulate in stages. I wouldn’t rush in after one red day

I’m leaning toward A — normal profit-taking, with the AI hardware trend still intact. Tuesday’s semiconductor selloff looks more like a valuation reset than a fundamental breakdown. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell about 5%, while memory and optical names such as SNDK, MU and CRDO were hit much harder than Nvidia. The key issue is macro: the 30-year Treasury yield recently reached its highest level since 2007, while Brent crude moved above $90. That combination naturally pressures high-multiple growth stocks. But AI infrastructure demand has not suddenly disappeared. Memory, storage, networking and GPU demand remain tied to massive data-center investment. So I wouldn’t call this an AI-cycle reversal yet. Instead, I’d watch whether SNDK and MU stabilize and reclaim key moving aver

I view it as A&E (Accident & Emergency 🦺) [LOL] [LOL] [LOL].... Wait for the set-up to Buy the Deep [Evil] @Aqa @DiAngel @JC888 @Barcode @Shyon @koolgal @Shernice軒嬣 2000

What deserves the most attention in the U.S. equity market this week is not the movement of the S&P 500 Index itself, but rather the structural changes taking place within the index. From a valuation perspective, the S&P 500’s overall price-to-earnings ratio remains at a relatively elevated level. Valuations in information technology, real estate, industrials, health care, and other sectors are all materially above the broader market, indicating that U.S. equities as a whole still lack a clear valuation cushion. From a fund-flow perspective, SPY has recorded cumulative net inflows of approximately USD 21.6 billion since July, but fund-flow divergence across sectors has become increasingly pronounced. Capital is not simply leaving the equity market; rather, it is being reallocated a

NVIDIA's $500B AI Deal: The Market May Be Reading It Backwards $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ came under pressure after announcing MOUs with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR to mobilize $500 billion+ of third-party capital for AI infrastructure. The headline sounds like NVIDIA is taking on another huge financing commitment, and Nvidia's 5Y CDS jumps by almost 6 bps after the news. The $500B Is Mainly Someone Else's Capital The key distinction is between stimulating demand and funding demand with NVIDIA’s own balance sheet. NVIDIA has already invested heavily across its ecosystem, including AI labs, neoclouds and infrastructure partners. That raised a legitimate concern: if NVIDIA increasingly has to finance its own customers, AI demand becomes more circular and more of

The divergence between $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Nvidia (NVDA) and $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ AMD during recent semiconductor market swings highlights how Wall Street is treating the primary AI market leader versus its closest challenger. Market Dynamics: Leader Search vs. Margin Corrections 1. The Market Is Re-Affirming Nvidia’s Dominant Leadership Hyperscaler CapEx Concentration: Earnings reports from big tech cloud providers (Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon) re-confirmed that AI capital expenditure remains aggressive. Nvidia continues to capture the vast majority of this infrastructure spending due to its integrated hardware-software ecosystem (CUDA) and sold-out 2026 Blackwell GPU capacity. The "Whisper Bar" Diffe

Just this past Monday, the S&P 500 index successfully broke through its 20-day moving average, while the Nasdaq index solidly reclaimed its 20-week moving average. According to the technical rules I outlined previously, when these two critical indicators are breached simultaneously, we should pivot our stance to the upside in alignment with the trend. Sure enough, within just one day, both major indices surged another few percentage points, and the S&P 500 even came close to returning to its previous high, right where the initial drop began. Looking at this price action, I believe many are already declaring "the return of the king" for US equities, assuming the market has completely finished its shakeout and re-entered a primary uptrend. However, I must issue a warning: the current

Sandisk’s FY2026 Q4 results were exceptional. The stock still fell about 3% after hours because FY2027 Q1 revenue guidance missed elevated expectations. How's Q4? Q4 revenue reached $8.97B, up 51% QoQ and 372% YoY. It beat the $8.71B consensus and Goldman Sachs’ $8.84B estimate. Non-GAAP gross margin was 84.6%, versus 83.6% consensus, while adjusted EPS of $39.25 beat consensus by 10.7%. The operating leverage was unusually strong. Revenue rose from roughly $1.9B a year ago to almost $9B, while cost of revenue stayed near $1.38B. Operating expenses increased only about 20%, driving operating income above $7B. Adjusted free cash flow reached $5.04B, equal to 56% of revenue. Data centre demand drove the quarter. Segment revenue reached $2.98B, about 14 times the prior-year level. Edge remain

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$’s recent trading action highlights a tug-of-war between strong underlying AI chip demand and growing structural concerns surrounding market valuation, financing, and macroeconomic headwinds. 1. Top Market Cap Spot: Apple Reclaims #1 $Apple(AAPL)$ recently overtook Nvidia for the world’s most valuable public company. The CapEx Divergence: Apple’s strategy of leveraging light capital expenditure—renting cloud compute and utilizing its massive installed device base—is being rewarded as high-margin free cash flow. Valuation Pressure on NVDA: While Apple is up roughly 24% year-to-date, Nvidia has lagged with modest mid-single-digit gains. Investors have grown uneasy over reports regarding Nvidia

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$’s proposed involvement in financing an enormous OpenAI data centre represents a significant change in its risk profile. Supplying AI chips is highly profitable; guaranteeing financing that enables customers to purchase those chips potentially exposes Nvidia to the financial risk behind the demand. The Wall Street Journal reported on July 26 that Nvidia was discussing approximately $250 billion of financing guarantees for an OpenAI-led, 10-gigawatt data-centre project in Ohio. Nvidia was also reportedly considering financing as much as $350 billion of OpenAI chip purchases. The entire project could cost more than $500 billion. Neither arrangement had been finalized at the research cut-off. Reuters’ report on the financing discussions

Societe Generale's newly launched 5x Long and -5x Short DLCs on the individual Magnificent 7 U.S. stocks have started trading on Wednesday, 12 August. This expansion to 5x U.S. Stock DLCs complements the existing 3x U.S. Stock DLCs range to offer investors more choices in terms of leverage factors. With up to 5x leveraged and inverse exposure to the individual Magnificent 7 stocks' daily percentage performance, investors can express their bullish or bearish views to capture opportunities in both directions of the market. Similar to all the U.S. underlying DLCs, the new 5x DLCs on the Magnificent 7 stocks offer investors a new trading window during SGX market hours when the US market is closed, allowing them to respond to market-moving news during Asian hours. However, investors should note

Following last week's historic sell-off, the U.S. stock market—particularly the semiconductor sector—is standing at an extremely critical crossroads. It is no exaggeration to say that if the market takes even one more step downward, it will likely trigger a substantial, weekly-level decline. However, if the market can hold its ground against the current downtrend and stabilize, a phased recovery is not far out of reach, especially if tensions in the US-Iran conflict continue to cool. Therefore, this week's price action is of paramount importance to U.S. equities. At this critical juncture, since we cannot precisely forecast geopolitical developments, relying on technical analysis and real capital flow data to gauge market sentiment becomes essential. Today, Owen's analysis will delve deep

"Buy the rumor, sell the news" describes a trading adage where stock prices climb based on speculation before an event, then drop once the official news breaks. Because markets are forward looking, investors buy early on anticipation. When the announcement happens, these buyers take their profits, causing the price to fall as selling outweighs new demand. With that let me share the rumours on $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ for your considerations. The Peak. NVDA hit an all-time high (ATH) on 14 May 2026 at $235.74 per share. Since then, it has lost roughly $1 trillion in market value. (see below) The stock is down about -10.92% from that peak, trading around $210 (as of Fri, 10 Jul 2026), while the broader market has mostly moved higher. For investors who bought