To The Moon

Hello everyone. Today, I'd like to use the Ctrip stock crash incident to discuss managing short put positions.What Happened:💡 Cause: On January 14th, based on China's Anti-Monopoly Law, the State Administration for Market Regulation formally launched an investigation into Ctrip for suspected abuse of market dominance.💡 Impact on Stock Price: Ctrip's US-listed stock (Ticker: TCOM) closed at $75.68 on January 13th and plummeted 17% to close at $62.78 on January 14th. Ctrip's Hong Kong-listed stock (Ticker: 09961) closed at HKD 569 on January 14th and fell sharply intraday, down 20% to HKD 452 on January 15th.💡 Impact on Business: Ctrip issued an announcement stating that all company operations are normal and that the investigation has not yet had a material impact on its business.Changes in

$SPY$Pressure on the broad market remains significant ahead of the January 16th monthly options expiration, exerting a dampening effect across various sectors. Overall, the outlook remains bullish after this week. However, this week SPY is likely to pull back towards 680, probably closing within the 680-690 range.Notably, during Tuesday's session, someone opened a large position buying 20,000 contracts of the January 23rd expiry VXX 30.5 call $VXX 20260123 30.5 CALL$ , with a notional value of approximately $700,000. The timing of the order was exceptionally precise.$NVDA$I'm now convinced that the volatility during the January monthly options expiration week is more unpredictable than during a regular triple witching week

$NVDA$A large block trade sold the 220 call $NVDA 20260220 220.0 CALL$ , opening 39,000 contracts. The expiry date chosen is one week before earnings. While selling deep out-of-the-money to capture time value, it shows extreme caution.I've observed something different in bullish openings this year. Sequential, sizeable single-leg openings are occurring in expiring week options, seemingly betting with market makers on the possibility of an extreme short squeeze. However, I expect this week to mirror last week—all these positions will likely expire worthless, with the stock price closing between 170 and 180.That said, I don't believe NVIDIA won't rise. The current US market resembles the A-share market, both experiencing r

$MARA 20260116 9.0 PUT$ One of the most risk-free trade!🥳

$NVDA$This Friday, January 16th, is the monthly options expiration, with a massive number of contracts expiring. Following the principle of "pinning to max pain" based on the largest open interest concentrations for calls and puts, NVIDIA's stock price is expected to gravitate towards a pullback, currently targeting around 170.Institutions' arbitrage strategy this week involves selling the 188 call $NVDA 20260116 188.0 CALL$  and hedging by buying the 193 call $NVDA 20260116 193.0 CALL$ .The lowest expected pullback price is seen around 150. I've considered this; it might be due to DeepSeek potentially releasing its V4 version around the Chinese New Ye

$GOOGL$ $GOOG$Google is currently the company with the most large bullish orders observed, potentially the Q1 leader among the MAGA7 stocks.Large buy call orders include the purchase of June 18th expiry 430 calls: $GOOGL 20260618 430.0 CALL$ .Large sell put orders include selling the 330 put $GOOG 20260918 330.0 PUT$  and selling the 310 put $GOOGL 20260320 310.0 PUT$ .$AMZN$Amazon also has large buy call orders $AMZN 20260618 310.0 CALL$ . It's worth noting that half the position was reduced the day after the trad

$NVDA$There is renewed heavy call option buying concentrated in the 187.5 to 202.5 strikes expiring this week, increasing the likelihood of a short squeeze.For selling puts, consider raising the strike price to 185. $NVDA 20260109 185.0 PUT$ $MU$Micron currently faces a similar issue as silver—it's difficult to pinpoint where the top might be. Bears have opened puts expiring this week, aiming to trigger a pullback to 320. It's uncertain if they'll succeed, but selling the 310 put this week seems relatively safe.I have a theory: by referencing options trading volume, Micron might be nearing a top when its volume approaches that of the silver ETF SLV. That could signal the FOMO (fear of missing out) buying is exhausting its

$TSLA$Key News:Analyst New Street raised Tesla's target price to $600 (from $520), maintaining a Buy rating, expected to boost the stock price.Tesla stock fell 4.14% to $432.96, primarily due to BYD outselling Tesla in two major European markets (Germany) (BYD surged to 23,306 units, Tesla declined to 19,390 units), sparking market concerns.Options Analysis:Current Implied Volatility (IV) is very high, indicating market expectation for sharp price swings. Sentiment is slightly bullish, but institutions have already bought large put options for hedging, increasing volatility risk.This Week (1/9): Expected to swing widely within $425 - $450.Next Week (1/16): The range may widen to $420 - $460.Key Support: $420 - $430. $430 is this week's key support; $420 is a dense defensive line for next w

$09988$Important News:Zheshang Securities maintains a "Buy" rating on Alibaba-W (09988) with a target price of HKD 189.09, optimistic about the growth of its AI cloud platform business and potential for margin improvement.Options Analysis:Current Implied Volatility (IV) is moderate, indicating market expectation for some price movement. Options trading volume suggests cautious, slightly bearish sentiment.This Week (1/9): Expected to fluctuate within HKD 137 - 154.Next Week (1/16): The range may widen to HKD 135 - 158.Key Support: HKD 144-145. HKD 144 is the recent monthly technical low; HKD 145 is a concentration area for put option (PUT) open interest.Key Resistance: HKD 150-154. HKD 150 is a dense resistance area for call option (CALL) open interest; HKD 154 is the upper bound of this we

$KWEB$A relatively rare scenario has emerged: large orders chasing a rally, with a massive temporary addition of long call options, betting KWEB will rise to 40.The main large bullish orders include:$KWEB 20260821 40.0 CALL$ : August 21st expiry 40 calls, 92,000 contracts opened, direction buy, notional value approximately over $23 million.$KWEB 20260320 40.0 CALL$ : March 20th expiry 40 calls, 36,000 contracts opened, direction buy, notional value approximately over $3 million.$KWEB 20260220 37.0 CALL$ : February 20th expiry 37 calls, 9,876 contracts opened, direction buy.100,000 contr

$GOOGL$The past two months have been a consolidation phase. Trading in this environment can be tricky, but seeing this large order might clarify things:Sell Put 310 $GOOGL 20260220 310.0 PUT$ , 9,684 contracts opened.Sell Put 310 $GOOGL 20260206 310.0 PUT$ , 10,000 contracts opened.The message is: don't overcomplicate. Sell puts on dips; don't chase rallies. If you accidentally sell puts at a high level, don't panic and close for a loss immediately. Consider whether you're willing to take assignment—the price might rebound after you do.$NVDA$Institutions' primary bullish spread strategy for shorting is focused on the 192.5–197.5 range

$NVDA$For January, the most reliable sell put strike is undoubtedly still 160. A large block trade opened, selling the January 30th 160 put $NVDA 20260130 160.0 PUT$ , with 36.9k contracts opened.On the call side, the January 16th 190 call $NVDA 20260116 190.0 CALL$  saw 30k contracts added in new opens, leaning towards the sell side, bringing total open interest to 100k contracts. The market message is that it will be difficult for the price to break above 190 before January 16th.However, referencing last January's price action, if the broader market does not correct after the New Year but maintains its current consolidation, given the scale of open in

$SPY$Theoretically, the market should consolidate sideways this week, then correct after positive news from the CES conference is digested.However, a large bearish spread order was opened on SPY: buying the 684 put and selling the 672 put $SPY 20260102 684.0 PUT$  $SPY 20260102 672.0 PUT$ . This implies a potential pullback to around 680 this week.Currently, the source disrupting market rhythm could potentially be precious metals.$SLV$Options activity on the Silver ETF suggests a clear short squeeze scenario. Front-month call options are being closed continuously, while front-month put options are seeing significant additions. However, a squeeze-driven ral

$SPY$It seems just one step away from 7000 points. The market continues its upward consolidation tonight. Based on options opening positions, 7000 points are not tonight's target, but we can hope for next week.Tonight's likely range is between 690 and 695. After rising to 700 next week, a pullback is possible.$NVDA$Institutions are selling the 192.5 call expiring next week $NVDA 20260102 192.5 CALL$  and buying the 197.5 call for hedging/arbitrage $NVDA 20260102 197.5 CALL$ . This suggests the stock price is expected to be below 192.5 next week.Overall long (call) opening data indicates a potential return to around 200 soon, especially with the CES con

$TSLA$Key News:Tesla Model 3 is under investigation by U.S. regulators for emergency door defects, which could lead to recall risks and impact short-term stock price.FSD v14 system passes the physical Turing test, indicating progress in autonomous driving technology.Options Analysis:Current Implied Volatility (IV) is at historically extreme lows, suggesting the market expects very stable price movement. Call option trading is active, indicating positive sentiment.This Week (12/26): Expected to trade within a mild range of $475 - $495.Next Week (1/2): The range may widen slightly to $480 - $500.Key Support: $480. This is a recent technical low and a key defensive line for short-term bulls.Key Resistance: $490 - $495. $490 is a concentration area for call option (CALL) open interest; $495 is

$TSLA$Key News:Analyst Canaccord Genuity raised Tesla's target price to $551 (from $482). FactSet survey shows average rating "Hold," average target $421.59.Stock up 28% since November lows, driven by CEO compensation plan reinstatement and autonomous driving progress.Options Analysis:Current IV is extremely high, indicating expectations for sharp price swings. Sentiment leans bullish, but institutions have hedged at key levels.This Week (Dec 26): Expected high-volatility range: $475–$500.Next Week (Jan 2): Range may expand to $470–$510.Key Support: $480–$485 – $480 is recent technical support; $485 is a massive Put OI zone, forming a key defense line.Key Resistance: $500 – a crucial psychological and historical high, with institutional sell call blocks creating strong resistance.Strategy

$NVDA$For some reason, institutions have modest expectations for NVIDIA's Q1 performance. Long calls were rolled ahead of the CES conference:Closed 50,000 contracts of the Feb 170 call $NVDA 20260220 170.0 CALL$  and rolled into buying 50,000 contracts of the Mar 160 call $NVDA 20260320 160.0 CALL$ .Not only is the strike price lower, but the expiration is also extended. The only plausible reason seems to be a clear market aversion to the supply chain closely tied to OpenAI.The Jan 185 call $NVDA 20260116 185.0 CALL$  saw 45,000 contracts opened, with mixed buy/sell flow.During the s

$NVDA$Expected to trade within the $170–185 range this week. After breaking above $180 on positive news, $185 will likely remain a tough resistance. Consider selling calls: $NVDA 20251226 187.5 CALL$ . A pullback to $175 is possible; consider selling puts on the dip: $NVDA 20251226 170.0 PUT$ .There's market chatter that NVDA is currently "cheap." Cheap it may be, but the persistent put openings still seem to harbor hopes of a drop to $160, suggesting ongoing consolidation and position-clearing.$TSLA$Given Tesla's price action and Musk's known tendencies around holidays, I suspect a push to $500 on the 24th or 26th, followed by a pullback—with the 24th

$CRWV$Insider block buying continues with 23,000 contracts opened, pushing total open interest to 100,000 contracts $CRWV 20260320 100.0 CALL$ . News-wise, CRWV has been selected for the US Department of Energy's "Project Genesis" to support national-level AI research. The block buying preceded the news.Another stock with massive block opening is APLD, with 65,300 contracts of the 2028 8 call $APLD 20280121 8.0 CALL$  traded, with a total premium value of $119 million.$ORCL$The news of TikTok landing on Oracle has relieved the market, easing concerns about who would pick up the cloud services pieces if OpenAI were to collapse.The bullish expectation is f

$BABA-W(09988)$ Key News:Guosen Securities maintains a "Buy" rating on Alibaba, optimistic about the commercialization prospects of its AI large models in e-commerce, cloud services, and other sectors.Options Analysis:Current Implied Volatility (IV) is at historical extremes (low), indicating expectations for very stable prices. Option volume suggests cautious sentiment with institutional hedging.This Week (Dec 19): Expected narrow range: HKD 142–148.Next Week (Dec 24): Range may expand slightly to HKD 140–150.Key Support: HKD 140–142 – HKD 140 is the maximum Put OI support; HKD 142 is the lower bound this week.Key Resistance: HKD 148–150 – HKD 148 is the upper limit this week; HKD 150 is next week's Call resistance.Strategy Idea: Sell Call Sprea

Hello everyone. Today, I'd like to use the Ctrip stock crash incident to discuss managing short put positions.What Happened:💡 Cause: On January 14th, based on China's Anti-Monopoly Law, the State Administration for Market Regulation formally launched an investigation into Ctrip for suspected abuse of market dominance.💡 Impact on Stock Price: Ctrip's US-listed stock (Ticker: TCOM) closed at $75.68 on January 13th and plummeted 17% to close at $62.78 on January 14th. Ctrip's Hong Kong-listed stock (Ticker: 09961) closed at HKD 569 on January 14th and fell sharply intraday, down 20% to HKD 452 on January 15th.💡 Impact on Business: Ctrip issued an announcement stating that all company operations are normal and that the investigation has not yet had a material impact on its business.Changes in

$SPY$Pressure on the broad market remains significant ahead of the January 16th monthly options expiration, exerting a dampening effect across various sectors. Overall, the outlook remains bullish after this week. However, this week SPY is likely to pull back towards 680, probably closing within the 680-690 range.Notably, during Tuesday's session, someone opened a large position buying 20,000 contracts of the January 23rd expiry VXX 30.5 call $VXX 20260123 30.5 CALL$ , with a notional value of approximately $700,000. The timing of the order was exceptionally precise.$NVDA$I'm now convinced that the volatility during the January monthly options expiration week is more unpredictable than during a regular triple witching week

$NVDA$A large block trade sold the 220 call $NVDA 20260220 220.0 CALL$ , opening 39,000 contracts. The expiry date chosen is one week before earnings. While selling deep out-of-the-money to capture time value, it shows extreme caution.I've observed something different in bullish openings this year. Sequential, sizeable single-leg openings are occurring in expiring week options, seemingly betting with market makers on the possibility of an extreme short squeeze. However, I expect this week to mirror last week—all these positions will likely expire worthless, with the stock price closing between 170 and 180.That said, I don't believe NVIDIA won't rise. The current US market resembles the A-share market, both experiencing r

$NVDA$This Friday, January 16th, is the monthly options expiration, with a massive number of contracts expiring. Following the principle of "pinning to max pain" based on the largest open interest concentrations for calls and puts, NVIDIA's stock price is expected to gravitate towards a pullback, currently targeting around 170.Institutions' arbitrage strategy this week involves selling the 188 call $NVDA 20260116 188.0 CALL$  and hedging by buying the 193 call $NVDA 20260116 193.0 CALL$ .The lowest expected pullback price is seen around 150. I've considered this; it might be due to DeepSeek potentially releasing its V4 version around the Chinese New Ye

$MARA 20260116 9.0 PUT$ One of the most risk-free trade!🥳

$GOOGL$ $GOOG$Google is currently the company with the most large bullish orders observed, potentially the Q1 leader among the MAGA7 stocks.Large buy call orders include the purchase of June 18th expiry 430 calls: $GOOGL 20260618 430.0 CALL$ .Large sell put orders include selling the 330 put $GOOG 20260918 330.0 PUT$  and selling the 310 put $GOOGL 20260320 310.0 PUT$ .$AMZN$Amazon also has large buy call orders $AMZN 20260618 310.0 CALL$ . It's worth noting that half the position was reduced the day after the trad

$GOOGL$The past two months have been a consolidation phase. Trading in this environment can be tricky, but seeing this large order might clarify things:Sell Put 310 $GOOGL 20260220 310.0 PUT$ , 9,684 contracts opened.Sell Put 310 $GOOGL 20260206 310.0 PUT$ , 10,000 contracts opened.The message is: don't overcomplicate. Sell puts on dips; don't chase rallies. If you accidentally sell puts at a high level, don't panic and close for a loss immediately. Consider whether you're willing to take assignment—the price might rebound after you do.$NVDA$Institutions' primary bullish spread strategy for shorting is focused on the 192.5–197.5 range

$KWEB$A relatively rare scenario has emerged: large orders chasing a rally, with a massive temporary addition of long call options, betting KWEB will rise to 40.The main large bullish orders include:$KWEB 20260821 40.0 CALL$ : August 21st expiry 40 calls, 92,000 contracts opened, direction buy, notional value approximately over $23 million.$KWEB 20260320 40.0 CALL$ : March 20th expiry 40 calls, 36,000 contracts opened, direction buy, notional value approximately over $3 million.$KWEB 20260220 37.0 CALL$ : February 20th expiry 37 calls, 9,876 contracts opened, direction buy.100,000 contr

$TSLA$Key News:Analyst New Street raised Tesla's target price to $600 (from $520), maintaining a Buy rating, expected to boost the stock price.Tesla stock fell 4.14% to $432.96, primarily due to BYD outselling Tesla in two major European markets (Germany) (BYD surged to 23,306 units, Tesla declined to 19,390 units), sparking market concerns.Options Analysis:Current Implied Volatility (IV) is very high, indicating market expectation for sharp price swings. Sentiment is slightly bullish, but institutions have already bought large put options for hedging, increasing volatility risk.This Week (1/9): Expected to swing widely within $425 - $450.Next Week (1/16): The range may widen to $420 - $460.Key Support: $420 - $430. $430 is this week's key support; $420 is a dense defensive line for next w

$09988$Important News:Zheshang Securities maintains a "Buy" rating on Alibaba-W (09988) with a target price of HKD 189.09, optimistic about the growth of its AI cloud platform business and potential for margin improvement.Options Analysis:Current Implied Volatility (IV) is moderate, indicating market expectation for some price movement. Options trading volume suggests cautious, slightly bearish sentiment.This Week (1/9): Expected to fluctuate within HKD 137 - 154.Next Week (1/16): The range may widen to HKD 135 - 158.Key Support: HKD 144-145. HKD 144 is the recent monthly technical low; HKD 145 is a concentration area for put option (PUT) open interest.Key Resistance: HKD 150-154. HKD 150 is a dense resistance area for call option (CALL) open interest; HKD 154 is the upper bound of this we

$TSLA$Key News:Analyst Canaccord Genuity raised Tesla's target price to $551 (from $482). FactSet survey shows average rating "Hold," average target $421.59.Stock up 28% since November lows, driven by CEO compensation plan reinstatement and autonomous driving progress.Options Analysis:Current IV is extremely high, indicating expectations for sharp price swings. Sentiment leans bullish, but institutions have hedged at key levels.This Week (Dec 26): Expected high-volatility range: $475–$500.Next Week (Jan 2): Range may expand to $470–$510.Key Support: $480–$485 – $480 is recent technical support; $485 is a massive Put OI zone, forming a key defense line.Key Resistance: $500 – a crucial psychological and historical high, with institutional sell call blocks creating strong resistance.Strategy

$SPY$Theoretically, the market should consolidate sideways this week, then correct after positive news from the CES conference is digested.However, a large bearish spread order was opened on SPY: buying the 684 put and selling the 672 put $SPY 20260102 684.0 PUT$  $SPY 20260102 672.0 PUT$ . This implies a potential pullback to around 680 this week.Currently, the source disrupting market rhythm could potentially be precious metals.$SLV$Options activity on the Silver ETF suggests a clear short squeeze scenario. Front-month call options are being closed continuously, while front-month put options are seeing significant additions. However, a squeeze-driven ral

$NVDA$For January, the most reliable sell put strike is undoubtedly still 160. A large block trade opened, selling the January 30th 160 put $NVDA 20260130 160.0 PUT$ , with 36.9k contracts opened.On the call side, the January 16th 190 call $NVDA 20260116 190.0 CALL$  saw 30k contracts added in new opens, leaning towards the sell side, bringing total open interest to 100k contracts. The market message is that it will be difficult for the price to break above 190 before January 16th.However, referencing last January's price action, if the broader market does not correct after the New Year but maintains its current consolidation, given the scale of open in

$MU$Despite Micron's strong earnings and disciplined capital expenditure, the core issue remains: capital still believes AI monetization can't keep up with the burn rate and is beginning to exit revenue-less projects, curbing overheated market sentiment.The impact of $OWL$ withdrawing support for $ORCL$ project financing is significant. For a $10B project to be abandoned just like that, the investors must have seen something.Coupled with the fact that $FRMI$ lost a major client last week, causing its stock to halve, even the least sensitive observer should sense that something is amiss.So, while Micron claims its future performance will continue to be AI-driven, whether that driving force will accelerate expansion or stagnate and contract is anyone's guess.However, Micron's 2026 capacity i

$TSLA$Key News:Tesla Model 3 is under investigation by U.S. regulators for emergency door defects, which could lead to recall risks and impact short-term stock price.FSD v14 system passes the physical Turing test, indicating progress in autonomous driving technology.Options Analysis:Current Implied Volatility (IV) is at historically extreme lows, suggesting the market expects very stable price movement. Call option trading is active, indicating positive sentiment.This Week (12/26): Expected to trade within a mild range of $475 - $495.Next Week (1/2): The range may widen slightly to $480 - $500.Key Support: $480. This is a recent technical low and a key defensive line for short-term bulls.Key Resistance: $490 - $495. $490 is a concentration area for call option (CALL) open interest; $495 is

$SPY$It seems just one step away from 7000 points. The market continues its upward consolidation tonight. Based on options opening positions, 7000 points are not tonight's target, but we can hope for next week.Tonight's likely range is between 690 and 695. After rising to 700 next week, a pullback is possible.$NVDA$Institutions are selling the 192.5 call expiring next week $NVDA 20260102 192.5 CALL$  and buying the 197.5 call for hedging/arbitrage $NVDA 20260102 197.5 CALL$ . This suggests the stock price is expected to be below 192.5 next week.Overall long (call) opening data indicates a potential return to around 200 soon, especially with the CES con

$CRWV$Insider block buying continues with 23,000 contracts opened, pushing total open interest to 100,000 contracts $CRWV 20260320 100.0 CALL$ . News-wise, CRWV has been selected for the US Department of Energy's "Project Genesis" to support national-level AI research. The block buying preceded the news.Another stock with massive block opening is APLD, with 65,300 contracts of the 2028 8 call $APLD 20280121 8.0 CALL$  traded, with a total premium value of $119 million.$ORCL$The news of TikTok landing on Oracle has relieved the market, easing concerns about who would pick up the cloud services pieces if OpenAI were to collapse.The bullish expectation is f

$NVDA$There is renewed heavy call option buying concentrated in the 187.5 to 202.5 strikes expiring this week, increasing the likelihood of a short squeeze.For selling puts, consider raising the strike price to 185. $NVDA 20260109 185.0 PUT$ $MU$Micron currently faces a similar issue as silver—it's difficult to pinpoint where the top might be. Bears have opened puts expiring this week, aiming to trigger a pullback to 320. It's uncertain if they'll succeed, but selling the 310 put this week seems relatively safe.I have a theory: by referencing options trading volume, Micron might be nearing a top when its volume approaches that of the silver ETF SLV. That could signal the FOMO (fear of missing out) buying is exhausting its

$NVDA$For some reason, institutions have modest expectations for NVIDIA's Q1 performance. Long calls were rolled ahead of the CES conference:Closed 50,000 contracts of the Feb 170 call $NVDA 20260220 170.0 CALL$  and rolled into buying 50,000 contracts of the Mar 160 call $NVDA 20260320 160.0 CALL$ .Not only is the strike price lower, but the expiration is also extended. The only plausible reason seems to be a clear market aversion to the supply chain closely tied to OpenAI.The Jan 185 call $NVDA 20260116 185.0 CALL$  saw 45,000 contracts opened, with mixed buy/sell flow.During the s

$BABA-W(09988)$ Key News:Guosen Securities maintains a "Buy" rating on Alibaba, optimistic about the commercialization prospects of its AI large models in e-commerce, cloud services, and other sectors.Options Analysis:Current Implied Volatility (IV) is at historical extremes (low), indicating expectations for very stable prices. Option volume suggests cautious sentiment with institutional hedging.This Week (Dec 19): Expected narrow range: HKD 142–148.Next Week (Dec 24): Range may expand slightly to HKD 140–150.Key Support: HKD 140–142 – HKD 140 is the maximum Put OI support; HKD 142 is the lower bound this week.Key Resistance: HKD 148–150 – HKD 148 is the upper limit this week; HKD 150 is next week's Call resistance.Strategy Idea: Sell Call Sprea