To The Moon

The stock/bond ratio is something investors the world over pay attention to because it both represents the most important relative performance line for asset allocators and gives clues on the path of the two main public market asset classes.The Australian stock/bond ratio stands out for a few reasons.Technicals: while there is a fairly clear and strong uptrend in progress the Australian stock/bond ratio is looking very stretched vs trend (we’ve seen this indicator peak in the past when it surged to similar extremes).Valuations: the latest monthly pack shows Australian stocks slightly expensive, and Australian government bonds very cheap. So from a relative value standpoint bonds have the advantage.Macro: that said, as discussed in a recent note on the US Stock/Bond Ratio, for the stock/bon

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ dipped below key support at the channel floor and 50DMA, but reclaimed both into the close.While that reclaim is short-term bullish and should drive a bounce toward 6749–6844 (Daily iFVG resistance), that move likely forms a bearish 2nd wave — a setup to sell into, targeting the major pivot/support at 6550.Below 6550 → begins the Wave 4 pullback targeting 6150.Daily close above 6788 → would reduce bearish confidence. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2512(ESmain)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2512(NQmain)$

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $243.04 (−2.86%): Post-earnings fade from highs; buyers defend EMAs—watch 242/250 (range 238–258)Market Recap (today): Amazon slipped to $243.04, down −2.86%, on a $242.17–$250.38 range with volume ~43.1M vs ~45.7M avg. Shares sit ~6.0% below the 52-week high ($258.60). Drivers: (1) Post-earnings digestion after the late-October beat; (2) broad mega-cap risk-off rotation; (3) profit-taking near the $250 handle after a fast two-week run. Price remains above 20-EMA $232.68 and 50-EMA $227.59, keeping the uptrend intact despite the cooling.Indicators & 1-week view: MACD(12,26,9) is positive and widening with a rising histogram—momentum still constructive, but today’s red candle tempers pace. RSI(14) ~60 stays bullish-neutral (n

$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ $40.34 (−4.03%): EMA breakdown extends slide; sellers press $40—watch 38/42 (range 36–45)Market Recap (today): Super Micro Computer closed at $40.34, off −4.03%, trading $40.30–$42.82 on ~31.8M shares vs ~30.5M avg (~1.04×). Price sits ~39% below the 52-week high ($66.44). Drivers: (1) Ongoing risk-off in AI hardware after a weak tape in semis/servers; (2) post-earnings hangover as guidance reset keeps buyers cautious; (3) a decisive close beneath 20/50-EMA ($49.35/$49.22), flipping trend to defense.Indicators & 1-week view: MACD(12,26,9) is negative and below signal (MACD ≈ −1.39 < signal 0.05; hist −1.44), confirming downside momentum; RSI(14) ≈ 31.7 approaches oversold—bounce risk rises but trend still do

$Shopify(SHOP)$ $156.05 (−4.22%): 20-EMA lost; 50-EMA test sparks caution—watch 155/160 (range guard 150–165)Market Recap (today): Shopify fell to $156.05, down −4.22%, on a $155.78–$163.09 range with ~9.63M shares vs ~7.68M avg (~1.25×). Shares sit about 14.3% below the 52-week high ($182.19). Drivers: (1) Post-earnings digestion (Nov-4) after a sharp run-up; (2) risk-off in software/e-commerce weighing on high-beta names; (3) sellers faded the $170s supply zone, pulling price back to the 50-day trend line.Indicators & 1-week view: On TradingView, MACD(12,26,9) shows MACD ~3.08 < signal ~4.97 with a negative histogram (~−1.90)—bearish momentum rollover. RSI(14) ~43 slips toward neutral-weak. Volume expanded on the down day, confirming supp