I’m leaning toward Option B — the Fed keeps rates unchanged through year-end. The 9–3 vote shows growing concern about inflation, but higher Treasury yields are already tightening financial conditions. Unless inflation picks up again, I think the Fed will wait for more data. I’m watching core PCE, CPI, and the labor market most closely. If inflation continues to cool and job growth slows gradually, another rate hike becomes less likely. However, persistent oil-price strength could keep inflation sticky and delay any policy easing. For investing, I expect high-growth stocks to stay volatile while yields remain elevated, whereas energy stocks could benefit from firm oil prices. I’m staying selective and focusing on companies with strong earnings rather than reacting to short-term market mov
$Apple(AAPL)$ Apple's warning matters because it comes from demand exceeding available components rather than weakening consumer demand. If memory constraints are temporary, investors may look through one or two quarters, especially given Apple's balance sheet and ability to secure supply ahead of rivals. However, if shortages persist, they can delay product shipments, pressure margins through higher procurement costs, and slow services growth by limiting new device sales. A 5% to 6% after-hours move suggests the market has already repriced much of the near-term risk. The next key question is whether suppliers such as SK Hynix, Micron and Samsung can expand advanced memory output quickly enough. If supply normalises, this is likely to be vie
July 2026 Portfolio Update: Channeling "Berkshire Time"
July 2036 portfolio gained SGD45000 or 8.3%. Dividend collection is SGD14000 year to date. During the dot-com crash of 2000, Berkshire Hathaway surged over 26% while the tech-heavy NASDAQ plummeted nearly 40%. This period perfectly illustrates "Berkshire Time"—a phenomenon where conservative, value-driven strategies shine while speculative markets crumble. My core portfolio mirrors this defensive philosophy, focusing heavily on Singapore (SG) and Hong Kong (HK) dividend-paying blue chips. To add a bit of growth potential, I maintain a smaller satellite portfolio dedicated to deeply discounted Hang Seng TECH (HS Tech) stocks. While this value-and-yield approach frequently lags behind during aggressive, growth-fueled market rallies, it proved its worth this month by successfully beating the
After Four Earnings Reports, SNDK’s Real Test Is How Big the Beat Can Be
These four earnings reports did not prove that the storage cycle is ending. If anything, they confirmed the opposite: AI data-center orders remain strong, storage prices are still rising, and supply remains tight. What has changed is the market’s scoring system. Previously, revenue growth and record profits were enough to push a stock higher. Now, even the strongest results in a company’s history can trigger a selloff if they fail to beat already-extreme consensus expectations. That is also how I view the upcoming earnings report from $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ The results will probably be very strong. The problem is that “very strong” may no longer be enough. CompanyActual ResultsVersus ExpectationsMy View
SpaceX is a lottery ticket kind of stock. It defies almost every principle of sound fundamental investing. First, the valuation is always a stretch. Same story with Tesla, priced wildly above its competitors. I accept that a market leader deserves a premium, but the gap suggests something more than that. There is an Elon Musk premium embedded in the share price, and it is substantial. Second, much of what you are buying sits in the future. Colonising Mars or the Moon, data centres in space, humanoid robots. None of it is commercialised. Yet it is priced today as though it already is. That is not valuation. That is buying into a vision. So if you want to invest in Musk’s companies, you cannot use the conventional lens. Which is exactly why these stocks are so divisive. On one side, the nays
Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 is the next Chinese name to make a splash in Western media. It ranks alongside the frontier models from Claude and ChatGPT, and that alone is a feat. The naysayers say it was achieved through distillation and the like. Maybe. But if it were that easy, every lab would be doing it and every model would be frontier class.Being frontier is one thing. Cost is another. Claude is known to be expensive. ChatGPT has managed to bring its costs down. Kimi K3 still comes in more than 50% cheaper than ChatGPT. As good as the West, at a fraction of the price. For cost conscious users, that is reason enough to switch.It also remains a few years behind its U.S. and Korean peers technologically. Strict export controls mean it cannot easily acquire extreme ultraviolet lithography equip
RZLV at $2.30: Revenue Up 20x. Stock Down 20% YTD. Something Doesn't Add Up.
$Rezolve AI(RZLV)$ That disconnect is the entire RZLV story in one sentence. Rezolve AI just reported preliminary H1 2026 revenue of $127 million, nearly 20 times higher than H1 2025. It has reaffirmed full-year guidance of $360 million. It has partnerships with TCS, Microsoft Foundry, and Zilch. Six analysts have a Strong Buy consensus with an average price target of $10.75. The stock is sitting at approximately $2.30, down 20% year to date and down 78% over three years. Either the analysts are wrong, or the market is pricing something the analysts are not. Understanding which is the only question worth answering. What Rezolve Actually Is Rezolve AI builds AI-powered commerce infrastructure. Not a chatbot. Not a search tool. The specific p
BYND at $0.56: This Is Not an Investment. It Is a Trade With a Three-Day Fuse.
$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$ At 56 cents, Beyond Meat has a market cap under $70 million, is trading 93% below its 52-week high of $7.69, is below the Nasdaq $1.00 minimum bid requirement with an August 31 delisting deadline, and reports Q2 earnings on August 5. That is three days away. The fundamentals are a disaster. The setup is genuinely interesting. Why the Business Case Is Not the Thesis Q1 2026 revenue fell 15.3% year on year to $58.2 million. Gross margin slipped from 12.8% to 10.8%. The company is burning cash with no profitability path visible through 2028 according to analyst models. The $1.1 billion in convertible notes against a sub-$70 million market cap is the structural landmine that makes this un
AXTI’s 164% Revenue Explosion: Is This the End of the "AI Bubble" Myth?
After a 100x surge in just one year, $AXT Inc(AXTI)$ reached its all-time high of $143. Barely a few months later, it had fallen back to around $60 — a maximum drawdown of over 56%. A lot of people started saying “AI is done” and “the bubble is bursting,” so of course optical names had to crash with it. But has the AI bubble actually burst? I think it’s way too early to call that. Most of the current judgment is pure emotion, completely detached from fundamentals. Everyone’s just arguing their own narrative.The real questions we should be asking are: Why did money rush for the exits right now? And more importantly for AXTI — is this just collateral damage, or is it actually a chance to reassess real value?Why did AXTI drop more than 70% whil
When the Whales Own the Pond: Bitcoin’s Liquidity Question
Bitcoin has always sold itself as digital gold for the masses. Open to anyone. Unstoppable. Owned by the people. Yet look at the numbers and a different picture emerges. Roughly twenty thousand addresses control about sixty-two percent of the supply. The biggest of those often belong to exchanges, ETF custodians, and a handful of corporations. Still, the concentration is real. And that raises an old question Warren Buffett has asked in different words for years: if only a few large holders matter, who is left to buy when they decide to sell? The optimistic case starts with market structure. Bitcoin trades around the clock on dozens of exchanges. Spot volumes still run into the billions most days, even if they have cooled from earlier peaks. Order books on the bigger platforms can absorb mi
(Part 3 of 5) Market Outlook of S&P500 (03Aug2026) > McDonald's?
Market Outlook of S&P500 (03Aug2026) Technical Analysis Overview Source: Yahoo Finance dated 02Aug2026 MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 is on a downtrend. Moving Averages Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows that the last candlestick has been above the 200-day (MA200) moving average but cut the 50-day (MA50) moving average. This pattern indicates a bullish shift in the long term and uncertain in the short term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have continued to trend upward, indicating a bullish outlook in both the short and long term. Exponential Moving Averages This is showing a bearish trend. Chaikin Money Flow The CMF index shows a score of 0.09, indicating more buying momentum than sell
My Investing Muse (03Aug2026) Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies Between July 27 and August 2, 2026, the tide of restructuring swept through industries with quiet force, as Porsche sealed an agreement to shed five thousand more roles toward a nine-thousand total by 2035 amid fading demand. Yet several claimed cuts fell just before the window: Centrica’s thirteen hundred, Telefónica Germany’s eleven hundred store-closing plan, K&L Gates’ ten-percent non-lawyer trim, and Amazon’s cloud software reductions had already echoed days earlier, while Intel’s Data Center moves and Magic Leap’s nearly two-hundred waveguide pivot gained only confirmatory notes within the week. Fresh waves arrived nonetheless—BMW offering voluntary exits for up to eight thousand German administrative and research
From Penniless to Powerhouse: Can Forrest Li's 3 Headed Dragon Launch SEA Ltd to New Heights?
🌟🌟🌟 $Sea Ltd(SE)$ $Sea US SDR 50to1(UGGD.SI)$ upcoming earnings report on August 11 2026 is the ultimate make or break moment for South East Asia's biggest tech juggernaut. Wall Street is buzzing with anticipation. The stock is currently marked as a Moderate Buy and analysts are projecting a massive 45% upside with a Target Price of USD 155.54. At the heart of this empire is a captivating story of visionary ambition, led by Founder and CEO Forrest Li. Forrest Li was once an ordinary graduate who arrived in Singapore with a substantial student debt and just a few dollars in his pocket. He named himself "Forrest" after watching Forres
U.S. Market Overview: Late-July Performance, Sector Rotations, August Outlook, and Bull Put Spread Options Strategies for Tech Stocks
The final week of July 2026 provided a classic "re-anchoring" phase for Wall Street. Mega-cap tech earnings, macro disinflation signals, and shifting geopolitical risks led to sharper sector divergence and a reset in options volatility. U.S. Market Performance (Last Week of July) After multi-week chops and divergence, major indexes staged a rebound to cap off July, led by large-cap tech and AI infrastructure names. Tech Rebound: Mega-cap technology and cloud infrastructure regained momentum as corporate earnings confirmed strong, continued capital expenditures (CapEx) in AI infrastructure. Macro Backdrop: Cooling inflation figures (both CPI and wholesale data) provided relief to interest rate expectations, keeping short-term Treasury yields in check. Market Breadth: While cap-weighted inde
AstraZeneca-BMY Mega-Merger Rumors: How Options Traders Can Capitalize
AstraZeneca is in preliminary talks to acquire $Bristol-Myers Squibb(BMY)$ in a potential $400 billion mega-merger. While unconfirmed talks spark immediate speculative upside for BMY, regulatory scrutiny over overlapping oncology pipelines means traders should expect elevated volatility rather than a guaranteed buyout. Thank you for your LIKE and FOLLOW. I heard you, TIGERSSS. Option Comm Free Vouchers are available for you. Contact me before it ends. IF YOU ALREADY OWN THE SHARES If you hold 100 or more shares of BMY, you can consider selling covered calls (selling the right for someone else to buy your shares at a specified target price to collect upfront income) out-of-the-money. With BMY trading near $65.31 and underlying implied volatility (IV
🐶☀️ Options Puppy Morning Market: OCBC Bank Trade Ideas Share Link
Good morning everyone! I hope everyone had a great night’s rest and is ready for another exciting trading day. As always, today’s watchlist starts with one of Singapore’s strongest blue-chip banks – OCBC Bank. Whether I decide to trade today or simply observe the market, having a clear plan before the opening bell helps me stay disciplined and avoid emotional decisions. Today, I am looking at OCBC because it continues to be one of my favourite Singapore stocks for both investing and short-term swing trading. With strong earnings, attractive dividends and relatively stable price movements, OCBC provides opportunities for both long-term investors and traders looking for small, consistent profits. ⸻ 🏦 Why I Continue Watching OCBC OCBC has built a reputation as one of Singapore’s most resilien
$Merck(MRK)$ is set to report its fiscal second-quarter 2026 financial results on Tuesday, August 4, 2026, before the market opens (with the investor call scheduled for 9:00 AM ET). Earnings Snapshot & Headline Estimates Consensus Revenue Estimate: ~$16.33 billion to $16.35 billion (representing ~2%–4% YoY growth). Consensus EPS Estimate: Loss of ($0.26) per share. Note on Earnings: The headline EPS reflects the impact of a ~$5.8 billion (~$2.35/share) upfront charge associated with Merck's acquisition of Terns Pharmaceuticals, which closed in May 2026. Full-Year 2026 Guidance: Prior FY26 adjusted EPS guidance was $5.04–$5.16. Investors will watch for updates reflecting recent M&A accounting adjustments. Merck & Co. (MRK) reported fisca
Why Uber’s Earnings Will Test Whether Robotaxis Strengthen or Threaten Its Platform
$Uber(UBER)$’s second-quarter report on August 5 will arrive as autonomous ride-hailing moves from experimental pilots toward commercial service. The strategic question is whether Uber becomes the neutral marketplace connecting riders with many robotaxi fleets or whether vehicle developers eventually bypass it. Uber’s first quarter, ended March 31 and reported May 6, showed strong platform momentum. Trips increased 20% year over year to 3.64 billion, monthly active consumers grew 17%, and gross bookings rose 25% to $53.72 billion. Revenue increased 14% to $13.20 billion, operating income rose 57% to $1.92 billion and free cash flow reached $2.29 billion. For the second quarter, management forecast gross bookings of $56.25–$57.75 billion and non-GA
Why Eli Lilly’s Earnings Are Now a Test of Manufacturing Capacity
Not Just Drug Demand $Eli Lilly(LLY)$’s August 5 report arrives with little doubt that demand for its diabetes and obesity medicines is strong. The harder question is whether production, pricing and access can turn that demand into sustainable earnings at a valuation that already anticipates exceptional growth. Lilly reported its first quarter on April 30. Revenue increased 56% year over year to $19.8 billion, primarily because of higher Mounjaro and Zepbound volume, partly offset by lower realised prices. Key-product revenue reached $13.4 billion, and reported earnings increased 170% to $8.26 per share. Mounjaro and Zepbound together represented 65% of quarterly revenue, demonstrating both extraordinary momentum and material concentration. Lilly’s
Why AMD Must Prove That Its AI Infrastructure Deals Are Producing Chip Revenue
$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ enters its August 4 earnings report with unusually high expectations. The company has moved beyond being primarily a challenger in personal-computer processors: data centres are now its largest growth engine, and investors want evidence that large AI deployment announcements are converting into accelerator revenue, margins and cash flow. AMD’s first quarter, ended March 28 and reported May 5, was strong. Revenue increased 38% year over year to $10.25 billion, while Data Center revenue rose 57% to $5.8 billion. Non-GAAP operating income increased 43% to $2.54 billion. Management guided for second-quarter revenue of approximately $11.2 billion, plus or minus $300 million, implying 46% growth at the midpoint, and projecte