Morgan Stanley paints a clean macro runway for 2026 with supportive policy, strong earnings and resilient growth. But markets rarely follow the script. The biggest risk is the assumption that all risk assets will rise together. The next cycle will reward precision, not passive optimism. 1. The Prediction Most Likely to Fail: A Smooth Macro and Even Rally Across Risk Assets The idea that everything will move up in harmony is the weakest point. Bond markets are already signalling stress, supply chains look vulnerable, and geopolitical catalysts can flip risk sentiment quickly. Tech valuations sit at premium levels, and any slowdown in cloud spending or AI hardware demand will hit megacaps first. The soft landing story can wobble if inflation stays sticky or if the Federal Reserve pivots too
Which 2026 Prediction Do You Think Is Most Likely to Fail?
Morgan Stanley recently released its 2026 outlook. Policy support and strong corporate earnings are expected to continue. Risk assets are set to lead, driven by micro factors (AI-related capex), a supportive policy mix (fiscal, monetary, and deregulation), and U.S. economic resilience. The U.S. remains the primary driver of global growth and market returns, What is your view on the predictions for 2026? Which do you think is most likely to come true, and which is most likely to fail?
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