Which 2026 Prediction Do You Think Is Most Likely to Fail?

Morgan Stanley recently released its 2026 outlook. Policy support and strong corporate earnings are expected to continue. Risk assets are set to lead, driven by micro factors (AI-related capex), a supportive policy mix (fiscal, monetary, and deregulation), and U.S. economic resilience. The U.S. remains the primary driver of global growth and market returns, What is your view on the predictions for 2026? Which do you think is most likely to come true, and which is most likely to fail?

avatarShyon
12-12 08:25
For me, 2025 was the year I finally stepped into options trading—and I’m glad I started. I’m still a beginner, but my first trade, a PLTR call, ended with a small profit and gave me the confidence to explore options. Even so, I still trade mostly the underlying stocks because I’m not fully comfortable with the complexities of options yet. I prefer to take things slow while I learn about strike selection, expiration management, and position sizing, so sticking with shares kept my portfolio steady through the year’s volatility. AI was the biggest driver of my portfolio in 2025, and starting my options journey with Palantir felt fitting. The sector’s strength carried my performance, and I’m looking forward to building on what I learned as I continue improving my option strategies in 2026. I’
avatarECLC
12-12
Either huge win or huge loss, too much for weak heart. Options are tough.
So as you can see by the screen shot below, this year has been a roller coaster. Coming out on top with a 46% return, but a few days back it was only 26% YTD. I think many other tigers may have similar stories, I'd love to here yours.  I'm not big on listening to market predictions, they are generally wrong. I suppose the biggest one is the Ai bubble. I think those that are predicting a major crash in Ai in 2006 are full of shite. I certainly will not be going out and buying more speculative Ai or chip stocks. But I'll continue buying $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ , $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ , and $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$. Just DCA into what's the cheapest eve
If you’re considering buying the dip in NVIDIA (NVDA) or Amazon (AMZN), it really comes down to your risk tolerance and investment goals. NVIDIA is a leader in GPUs and AI chips, with enormous growth potential due to the AI boom, but its stock is highly volatile and priced for high growth, meaning it can swing dramatically on earnings or news. Amazon, on the other hand, is a more diversified and stable company, dominant in e-commerce and cloud computing (AWS). While its growth is slower than NVIDIA’s, its stock tends to be steadier and less susceptible to extreme swings. Essentially, NVDA offers higher potential upside but comes with higher risk, whereas AMZN provides steadier growth with moderate risk. For many investors, a balanced approach—buying smaller amounts of both—can capture grow
The idea that Bitcoin reaches $300k by 2026 seems the most likely to fail. Without a major global liquidity cycle or new institutional wave, that level is too aggressive.”
avatarxc__
12-01

Morgan Stanley's 2026 Bull Trap: S&P to 7,800 Glory or Tariff-Fueled Trainwreck? 🚀📉💥

Wall Street's crystal ball is gleaming again – Morgan Stanley's fresh 2026 outlook paints a sun-kissed paradise where U.S. stocks reign supreme, the S&P 500 catapults 14% to 7,800, and a dream-team policy cocktail of fiscal fireworks, Fed easing, and deregulation turbocharges AI capex into a $3 trillion beast. Corporate earnings? Set to explode 17% with EPS hitting $317, inflation melts to 2.1%, and the dollar's gentle dip to 94 unleashes global risk-on rapture. Sounds like a holiday gift-wrapped rally, right? But peel back the tinsel, and cracks emerge: Tariff tsunamis could swamp that "resilient" U.S. engine, AI productivity might fizzle like a dud sparkler, and overvalued mega-caps could drag the "other 493" into the ditch. As December 1, 2025, dawns with QT's curtain call flooding
Morgan Stanley's 2026 Bull Trap: S&P to 7,800 Glory or Tariff-Fueled Trainwreck? 🚀📉💥
avatarMy1
12-01
I think US equities will rise in 2026, and global EV and AI stocks as well.
If Nvidia disappeared tomorrow, Google would be fine. The same can’t be said for others. Google’s built its own parallel universe to Nvidia’s hardware stack. That said, I’m not saying Nvidia is obsolete or in danger. Nvidia is still very much in the AI race, and Google won’t stop buying its chips. Why? Because Google Cloud needs to capture market share. Clients still want torent Nvidia chips for AI compute. If Google Cloud only offered TPUs, clients would leave for AWS or Azure. Google isn’t going to let that happen. Nvidia’s dominance isn’t going anywhere soon. Companies still want Nvidia chips because they’re still the most powerful AI chips on Earth. Google’s TPUs are designed for cost-efficiency, not raw power. Depending on the task—if you need the absolute fastest training time possib
avatarSPOT_ON
12-01
nobody can predict if what is going to happen in future... take it with a spoonful of salt
I think Energy stocks will outperform. AI needs energy.
avatarIsleigh
12-01

2026 Outlook: Which Prediction Breaks First, and What Actually Happens Next?

Morgan Stanley paints a clean macro runway for 2026 with supportive policy, strong earnings and resilient growth. But markets rarely follow the script. The biggest risk is the assumption that all risk assets will rise together. The next cycle will reward precision, not passive optimism. 1. The Prediction Most Likely to Fail: A Smooth Macro and Even Rally Across Risk Assets The idea that everything will move up in harmony is the weakest point. Bond markets are already signalling stress, supply chains look vulnerable, and geopolitical catalysts can flip risk sentiment quickly. Tech valuations sit at premium levels, and any slowdown in cloud spending or AI hardware demand will hit megacaps first. The soft landing story can wobble if inflation stays sticky or if the Federal Reserve pivots too
2026 Outlook: Which Prediction Breaks First, and What Actually Happens Next?
avatarKekemon
12-01
1. Too bullish. 2. Item 8. 3. Item 5.
avatarSpiders
11-30

Which 2026 Prediction Do You Think Is Most Likely to Fail?

I used to think predictions worked like train schedules—delayed sometimes, but ultimately arriving on the same track. The last few years cured me of that illusion. I’ve spent enough time pacing at the metaphorical platform, clutching my bearish ticket, waiting for the Recession Express that was “definitely” arriving in 2023… or 2024… or, surely, 2025. Yet here we are, drifting toward 2026, and the train still hasn’t appeared. Instead, the markets whistle cheerfully past, as if to mock the bond ETFs I bought—TLT, TLH—waiting patiently in my portfolio like umbrellas I insist on carrying despite the endlessly sunny weather. iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLH) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) S&P 500 (.SPX) Still, the financial world often produces its prophecies, thick with
Which 2026 Prediction Do You Think Is Most Likely to Fail?
avatarEDK57
11-30
Prediction 1: US market will dip about 15% in 2026. Due to tariffs and inflation going up in the US. Predication 2: Stock market crash in 2027.( 1987, 1997,2007,2017)
I personally feel these predictions are slanted more on the bullish side - perhaps even turbo-bullish in some respects like fixed income staying attractive coupled with high equity growth. For this to happen, we would need all three to materialise: Favorable Policy Mix, Corporate Earnings Growth & Improved Domestic Demand & Supply too. The forecast most likely to come true is the continued investment and productivity gains related to AI. The forecast that could be wrong is of sustained, moderate global economic growth and gradual disinflation - with Trump around, we can guarantee this won't happen easily.
avatarFTGR
11-30
2026 shall continue to rise..
Overall reading of the 2026 projections Morgan Stanley’s thesis is built on three pillars: continued policy accommodation, sustained earnings strength, and a supportive micro backdrop driven by AI-related capital expenditure. Broadly, these elements are plausible given current structural trends. However, the degree of certainty implied by such forecasts should always be treated with caution, especially once the horizon extends beyond twelve months. --- What is most likely to come true 1. AI-related capital expenditure will remain a dominant force This is the most credible component. Demand for compute, model training, data infrastructure and edge deployment is likely to continue. Cloud hyperscalers, semiconductor firms, network providers and AI-driven software ecosystems are still in the e
my thinking is that most will still be risk averse, the status quo of small gains over time acting as stability will win out. ai is still on baby steps a paradigm shift in computing is imminent as always but this may upset all our predictions hoping we all see the opportunities and avoid fomo⭐🐯
avatarWeChats
11-29
🚨 2026 Outlook: Which Prediction Will Break First? Is Morgan Stanley Too Confident? Morgan Stanley just dropped its 2026 outlook — and at first glance, it looks polished, optimistic, and almost too neatly packaged. Strong policy support. Resilient U.S. economy. AI-driven capex leading risk assets. Corporate earnings staying solid. But if you’ve survived more than one market cycle, you know this: Long-term forecasts rarely break at the strongest link — they break at the weakest one. And in this outlook… there are several weak links hiding beneath the surface. Let’s break it down — with clarity, skepticism, and realism. --- 1️⃣ Policy Support: The Most Overstated “Positive” in the Report Morgan Stanley assumes policy stability lasting through 2026. But look at the real world: • Global sovere
avatarECLC
11-29
Think the strategy report is too optimistic. Risks assets expected to lead but there are many uncertainties that market fear.