To The Moon

Global investors and American voters may now regret elevating Trump—a leader whose erratic nature has repeatedly pushed financial markets to "witness history" within days. While Trump insists these developments are part of his grand plan, feedback from China and Europe clearly indicates his bluffing strategies have backfired. At this point, figuring out a graceful way to step back has become the most urgent task.Previously, we discussed how the new president would need to trigger a correction in overvalued assets while fostering his own leading stocks. However, the real challenge lies in managing the market disruption caused by these operational adjustments. The last double-digit weekly drop in U.S. equities happened five years ago during Trump's presidency, though this time, there's no ex

During phases of temporary market adjustments, the intensity and duration of such trends often surpass expectations. These circumstances can lead many investors to either hesitate in buying the dip or surrender their positions amid repeated fluctuations and reversals. This phenomenon is one of the underlying reasons for the common saying: "Holding onto losses stubbornly, but hesitating to hold onto profits." If your investment strategy is guided by the mindset of "breaking even is earning," then quick trading with low risk is a reasonable approach. However, for those seeking above-average returns, attempting to buy during uncertain or potentially risky market turning points becomes an essential skill.Currently, Bitcoin presents itself in a similar situation. On one hand, the market previou

At the latest Federal Reserve meeting last week, policymakers unsurprisingly chose to maintain the status quo on interest rates. The relatively dovish tone of the communication improved market sentiment slightly, yet significant uncertainty remains over the future trajectory of monetary policy. Opinions are split: some believe that former President Trump's anti-globalization policies might lead to inflation or stagflation, preventing the Fed from cutting rates, while others anticipate that recession risks will compel the Fed to implement aggressive monetary easing to stabilize the economy. Examining bond market data can help determine which of these scenarios is more plausible.Recent Trends in 10-Year Treasury YieldsSince peaking at over 5% during the previous U.S. rate-hiking cycle, the 1

After recognizing the mistake and previously being bullish on gold, its price has continued to rise with little resistance, recently surpassing the $3,000 milestone. With this milestone achieved, investors are concerned about how far this gold bull market can go and whether a correction or reversal might occur soon. This outlook explores these questions briefly.Firstly, regarding the bullish target, we previously discussed that once the triangular formation ended, new upside potential opened up, with the target for a bullish rally pointing towards the $3,300 resistance area. Based on current prices, there's roughly a 10% upside potential left in the medium term. Considering gold's historical volatility and its low points at the beginning of the year, this target aligns with past patterns.

The US stock market has experienced a continuous decline over the past three weeks, with an overall drop of around 5%. From the perspective of market trends over the past year and a half, this three-week period often marks an important node, indicating either the end of an adjustment or the conclusion of a phase. Therefore, whether the market can stabilize this week will have significant reference value.Using the S&P 500 as a reference, every adjustment since the middle of last year has lasted about three weeks, followed by a resumption of the upward trend. Even in slightly longer-term market trends with more weekly adjustments, there usually is a small rebound or correction after three weeks. If history repeats itself or if trends need to continue, the US stock market should not exper

Last night, former President Donald Trump made a statement indicating plans to include multiple cryptocurrencies as part of the reserve system. This announcement sparked a surge in the cryptocurrency market. However, despite the short-term boost, we believe the broader market trend will remain unaffected by such political moves. After the initial excitement subsides, the market is likely to return to its original rhythm and structure.Recent Trading Opportunities and Market MovementsFor some time, we have been positioning ourselves to capitalize on the buying opportunity around the 85,000-86,000 range. Following entry, prices unexpectedly dipped further, with last week’s price bottoming out at approximately 78,000. However, Friday's significant lower shadow and the support at the previous g

Last Friday, U.S. stock markets experienced a broad decline, with the Nasdaq dropping over 2% in a single day. This resulted in a clear bearish weekly candlestick pattern. Combined with similar performances from the other two major indices, concerns have arisen about whether the prolonged inability to reach new highs might lead to a sustained correction.The majority of the Nasdaq's losses last week were concentrated on Friday. While the market remains in a consolidation phase at high levels and there are no apparent adverse developments in market sentiment or themes, auxiliary indicators suggest caution regarding a potential pullback. At the current level, chasing highs is not advisable. Whether it is feasible to attempt short positions depends on how the next one to two weeks play out aro

In the past one to two weeks, various asset classes have shown slight divergences in their movements. Notably, the U.S. dollar, influenced by Trump's tariff-related discussions, experienced a pronounced spike followed by a pullback, with short-term corrections continuing. Although the market’s broader retracement is not yet over, the U.S. dollar remains one of the strongest currencies in the medium term. Therefore, when prices are favorable, trading the dollar with a focus on wealth management and systematic investment remains a viable option. Comparatively, the dollar is not ideal for speculative trading, as achieving excess returns in this asset class is more challenging.Advantages of the U.S. DollarThe dollar holds several notable advantages, as previously discussed. Here, we will brief

The inflationary pressures arising from former President Donald Trump's anti-globalization policies, particularly tariff hikes, and the Federal Reserve's subsequent monetary policy adjustments have become critical focal points for medium-term market direction. While these variables and their interplay make it challenging to predict exact outcomes, traders can gain an edge by closely monitoring changes in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield—a key indicator that often moves ahead of major market news.The Significance of Long-Term Treasury YieldsThe 10-year Treasury yield serves multiple purposes, but most notably, it reflects expectations about the future trajectory of U.S. interest rates. For example, during the last Federal Reserve rate hike cycle, the 10-year yield peaked at over 5%, coincidi

During the Spring Festival holiday, although the domestic market was closed, overseas products continued to trade as usual, and some varieties even reached new highs. This means that we need to re-evaluate these new changes, and adjust the incorrect calculations or judgments. Now, let's take a look at which varieties deserve special attention after the holiday.GoldFirst and foremost, gold has hit a new all-time high. Previously, I thought that gold had peaked at around $2,800. But now it seems that this judgment might have been hasty. Although the top area is still very close, there is still room for one last upward push in the current market. Clearly, the previous triangle consolidation has now disproven the top. It also indicates that the secondary low point, which started at around $2,6