To The Moon

Still holding the view from earlier this week: SPY has more downside. Next week's risk remains elevated. Buy Puts: NVDA weekly 170 put closed, rolled to $NVDA 20260313 167.5 PUT$  — delta 0.14, 126k opened.$SMH 20260313 362.5 PUT$  — delta -0.124, 52k opened.$MU 20260313 340.0 PUT$  — delta 0.112, 19k opened. Sell Puts: $AMD 20260313 170.0 PUT$  — delta -0.065, 57k opened. Direction Unknown: $TSM 20260313 327.5 PUT$  — delta -0.166, 20k opened. Summary: in

$MSFT$ The most striking move: 150k call contracts printed on Wednesday — 100k bought in the 575 strike, 50k in the 625 strike. Another 100k short on the 675 call. $MSFT 20270115 575.0 CALL$  — 100k opened$MSFT 20270115 625.0 CALL$  — 50k opened$MSFT 20270115 675.0 CALL$  — 50k opened$MSFT 20261218 675.0 CALL$  — 50k opened Not much fundamental support for a run to new highs right now. That said, the stock looks washed out — solid candidate for selling puts. $SPY$ One clean short-vol collar: sell 710 call

SPY has hit the first pullback target at 670. Whether it continues down to 650 next is anyone's guess. The Israel-Iran conflict could still escalate — or de-escalate. De-escalation leads to a bounce. Escalation leads to more downside. Trying to predict the trajectory of a chaotic event like this is a fool's game. But one thing's clear: downside feels easier than upside right now. Tail risk is getting priced in big time. Volatility is spiking. Puts are expensive. Look at SPY flows — traders are leaning into 0DTE and weekly puts to hedge crash risk. Short-dated, sharp, directional. This environment? Not ideal for the usual sell-put routine. Probably stays that way through mid-April — about 4–5 weeks, per Trump's own estimate. Options price risk. When risk stops behaving within a normal range

First, let's look at this week's large orders from the "Put Buyer." Sell Puts: $ORCL 20260306 116.0 PUT$ : 85,000 contracts sold to open $SMH 20260306 350.0 PUT$ : 26,000 contracts sold to open However, the play on AMD was different — Buy Puts: $AMD 20260306 160.0 PUT$ : 42,000 contracts bought to open Implied volatility (IV) on out-of-the-money semiconductor puts remains extremely elevated. This isn't due to bearish AI commentary, but rather the macroeconomic risk-off sentiment stemming from the Israel-Iran war, fueling expectations of a broad market pullback. It's crucial to note that t

$NVDA$ First glance at the flows and one thing's clear — 170 is the line. The 170 put for March 6 expiry just printed 238k contracts. At this size, whether buy or sell, it's gonna act as a magnet. But it also means breaking below 170 is gonna be tough. So back to the usual: 170–195 chop. Next week's institutional call spread? Sell 192.5 $NVDA 20260306 192.5 CALL$ , hedge with 200 $NVDA 20260306 200.0 CALL$ . And the put sales keep stacking: $ORCL 20260306 130.0 PUT$  — 48k opened$SMH 20260306 355.0 PUT$  — 62k opened<

NVDA's earnings event was priced like a macro print — and it traded like one too. FOMC-style: sell the headline, maybe bounce the next day. NVDA? We'll see. Early flow doesn’t look great. A bearish position opened: 10k April 2nd 160 puts $NVDA 20260402 160.0 PUT$ . Notional: ~$2M. April 2nd rings a bell. Last year’s tariff shock. This trade might not just be about earnings — macro’s in the driver’s seat. Iran, tariffs, China. Any of these could move markets. Even with macro hanging overhead, I still think NVDA is a sell-the-dip name. Could be a chop year. Range still looks 170–195. Unless Trump does something stupid — then all bets are off. This year is setup for a brutal bull-bear fight. Core question: where does the mon

Checking today's option flows — another wave of massive weekly put sales across chips: $AMD 20260227 192.5 PUT$  — 70k opened$AVGO 20260227 285.0 PUT$  — 20k opened$ORCL 20260227 131.0 PUT$  — 15k opened$SMH 20260227 390.0 PUT$  — 13k opened$TSM 20260227 360.0 PUT$  — 13k opened This has the same vibe as pre-holiday put sales back in Jan. But here's the twist: this time delta is below 0.08 — way lower than the 0.13–0.18 range from before. Dig deeper and

$NVDA$ The bull-bear battle this year has never been more intense. Just when I thought this week's NVDA earnings were a foregone conclusion, this order hit the tape: Buy Call $NVDA 20260320 205.0 CALL$  Block print: 29k contracts opened. Estimated notional: $13M+. Meanwhile, the weekly call spread camp is running: Sell Call 195 $NVDA 20260227 195.0 CALL$  / Buy Call 202.5 $NVDA 20260227 202.5 CALL$ . Translation: this week, 195 likely caps. And looking at put flow, downside could stretch below 180. But here’s the twist — call strikes below 200 are thinning out. Totally different from

Checking the option flow today, I ran into a familiar sight — a wave of deep OUTM put sales across major chip names. Last seen on Jan 26. Flashback to Jan 22: $NVDA 20260220 175.0 PUT$  — 109.8k opened$AMD 20260220 187.5 PUT$  — 74.9k opened$ORCL 20260220 137.0 PUT$  — 56.8k opened$SMH 20260220 380.0 PUT$  — 43.4k opened$AVGO 20260220 305.0 PUT$  — 41.0k opened$MU 20260220 362.5 PUT$  —

$NVDA$ Barring any surprises, NVIDIA looks set to continue grinding between 170 and 200 through the first half of the year—a sweet spot for option sellers. I came across 10k contracts opened on the $NVDA 20260618 220.0 CALL$ . Nothing flagged as a block trade, but digging into the fills shows the orders were chopped up into tiny pieces. The screenshot says it all. Most of the flow? Sell-side. Not a coincidence—Broadcom showed the exact same footprint. $AVGO 20260618 400.0 CALL$  also saw around 10k contracts, finely sliced, same direction: sells. Why the cloak-and-dagger? Likely to avoid getting front-run. Both are ~0.35 delta. If the stock runs the wr