To The Moon

On Wednesday, a series of bafflingly large bearish orders emerged targeting the AI sector. The scale of these new put option purchases was astonishing, reaching tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars, with a timeframe pointing to before the Lunar New Year.The underlying assets involved include TSMC, Oracle, Broadcom, and the semiconductor ETF SOXX:$TSM 20260220 330.0 PUT$ $TSM 20260220 320.0 PUT$ $ORCL 20260213 160.0 PUT$ $AVGO 20260320 240.0 PUT$ $SOXX 20

$SPY$Pressure on the broad market remains significant ahead of the January 16th monthly options expiration, exerting a dampening effect across various sectors. Overall, the outlook remains bullish after this week. However, this week SPY is likely to pull back towards 680, probably closing within the 680-690 range.Notably, during Tuesday's session, someone opened a large position buying 20,000 contracts of the January 23rd expiry VXX 30.5 call $VXX 20260123 30.5 CALL$ , with a notional value of approximately $700,000. The timing of the order was exceptionally precise.$NVDA$I'm now convinced that the volatility during the January monthly options expiration week is more unpredictable than during a regular triple witching week

$NVDA$A large block trade sold the 220 call $NVDA 20260220 220.0 CALL$ , opening 39,000 contracts. The expiry date chosen is one week before earnings. While selling deep out-of-the-money to capture time value, it shows extreme caution.I've observed something different in bullish openings this year. Sequential, sizeable single-leg openings are occurring in expiring week options, seemingly betting with market makers on the possibility of an extreme short squeeze. However, I expect this week to mirror last week—all these positions will likely expire worthless, with the stock price closing between 170 and 180.That said, I don't believe NVIDIA won't rise. The current US market resembles the A-share market, both experiencing r

$NVDA$This Friday, January 16th, is the monthly options expiration, with a massive number of contracts expiring. Following the principle of "pinning to max pain" based on the largest open interest concentrations for calls and puts, NVIDIA's stock price is expected to gravitate towards a pullback, currently targeting around 170.Institutions' arbitrage strategy this week involves selling the 188 call $NVDA 20260116 188.0 CALL$  and hedging by buying the 193 call $NVDA 20260116 193.0 CALL$ .The lowest expected pullback price is seen around 150. I've considered this; it might be due to DeepSeek potentially releasing its V4 version around the Chinese New Ye

$GOOGL$ $GOOG$Google is currently the company with the most large bullish orders observed, potentially the Q1 leader among the MAGA7 stocks.Large buy call orders include the purchase of June 18th expiry 430 calls: $GOOGL 20260618 430.0 CALL$ .Large sell put orders include selling the 330 put $GOOG 20260918 330.0 PUT$  and selling the 310 put $GOOGL 20260320 310.0 PUT$ .$AMZN$Amazon also has large buy call orders $AMZN 20260618 310.0 CALL$ . It's worth noting that half the position was reduced the day after the trad

$NVDA$There is renewed heavy call option buying concentrated in the 187.5 to 202.5 strikes expiring this week, increasing the likelihood of a short squeeze.For selling puts, consider raising the strike price to 185. $NVDA 20260109 185.0 PUT$ $MU$Micron currently faces a similar issue as silver—it's difficult to pinpoint where the top might be. Bears have opened puts expiring this week, aiming to trigger a pullback to 320. It's uncertain if they'll succeed, but selling the 310 put this week seems relatively safe.I have a theory: by referencing options trading volume, Micron might be nearing a top when its volume approaches that of the silver ETF SLV. That could signal the FOMO (fear of missing out) buying is exhausting its

$KWEB$A relatively rare scenario has emerged: large orders chasing a rally, with a massive temporary addition of long call options, betting KWEB will rise to 40.The main large bullish orders include:$KWEB 20260821 40.0 CALL$ : August 21st expiry 40 calls, 92,000 contracts opened, direction buy, notional value approximately over $23 million.$KWEB 20260320 40.0 CALL$ : March 20th expiry 40 calls, 36,000 contracts opened, direction buy, notional value approximately over $3 million.$KWEB 20260220 37.0 CALL$ : February 20th expiry 37 calls, 9,876 contracts opened, direction buy.100,000 contr

$GOOGL$The past two months have been a consolidation phase. Trading in this environment can be tricky, but seeing this large order might clarify things:Sell Put 310 $GOOGL 20260220 310.0 PUT$ , 9,684 contracts opened.Sell Put 310 $GOOGL 20260206 310.0 PUT$ , 10,000 contracts opened.The message is: don't overcomplicate. Sell puts on dips; don't chase rallies. If you accidentally sell puts at a high level, don't panic and close for a loss immediately. Consider whether you're willing to take assignment—the price might rebound after you do.$NVDA$Institutions' primary bullish spread strategy for shorting is focused on the 192.5–197.5 range

$NVDA$For January, the most reliable sell put strike is undoubtedly still 160. A large block trade opened, selling the January 30th 160 put $NVDA 20260130 160.0 PUT$ , with 36.9k contracts opened.On the call side, the January 16th 190 call $NVDA 20260116 190.0 CALL$  saw 30k contracts added in new opens, leaning towards the sell side, bringing total open interest to 100k contracts. The market message is that it will be difficult for the price to break above 190 before January 16th.However, referencing last January's price action, if the broader market does not correct after the New Year but maintains its current consolidation, given the scale of open in

$SPY$Theoretically, the market should consolidate sideways this week, then correct after positive news from the CES conference is digested.However, a large bearish spread order was opened on SPY: buying the 684 put and selling the 672 put $SPY 20260102 684.0 PUT$  $SPY 20260102 672.0 PUT$ . This implies a potential pullback to around 680 this week.Currently, the source disrupting market rhythm could potentially be precious metals.$SLV$Options activity on the Silver ETF suggests a clear short squeeze scenario. Front-month call options are being closed continuously, while front-month put options are seeing significant additions. However, a squeeze-driven ral