$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ The market's script over the past two days is almost identical to last month's — a rally in the first few days of the month, led by NVIDIA. The only question is whether the consolidation and pullback that followed will also be the same. If that's the playbook, then after tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls data is released, the market will gap up and sell off. The expected minimum pullback level over the next two weeks is 755 $SPY 20260911 755.0 PUT$$SPY 20260915 755.0 PUT$. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Although I don't think September is a good time to buy calls,
$Apple(AAPL)$ I previously thought that even though Apple is a top-tier contrarian stock, it would at least need to show some pullback given the magnitude of macro rate hikes. But I forgot about Apple's new CEO taking over — his first public appearance is on September 10. Before that, the stock absolutely cannot fall — how would that look? Wall Street these days can't even let the market drop on July 4th, so you really have to appreciate the unwritten rules of the game. In any case, although there is a 340 Sell Call block trade on September 9 $AAPL 20270115 355.0 CALL$ that makes it hard for the stock to break out significantly, I have no doubt that Apple won't fall before next we
The next month is going to be a chess match of mind games between the Fed, Wall Street, Trump, the shorts, and the bulls — all trying to figure out whether the other side has anticipated their anticipation. So my predictions below may not be right either. Fed representative Warsh gave his first Jackson Hole speech on Friday, causing major market turbulence. What did Warsh say? He said he is firmly committed to bringing inflation down to 2%, so the Fed still has a lot of work to do. He didn't mention rate hikes, but since the Fed's "work" is ambiguous, the market and some media outlets automatically added rate-hike expectations into their messaging. Maybe Warsh can bring down inflation through other means, or maybe this month's nonfarm payrolls and CPI will both come in below expectations.
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ With this earnings report, NVIDIA has cemented its status as the Federal Reserve of the AI world. Going forward, its earnings releases will be roughly equivalent to macroeconomic data releases. I haven't figured out the full implications yet, but one thing is clear: the nature of the company has changed. Wednesday's largest block trade combo was Sell Put 200 + Buy Call 220 + Sell Call 230. As today's opening showed — opening at 222, hitting 225 intraday — it was remarkably precise. Next week, there's no need to look at open interest data or GEX analysis. Just reference today's intraday block trade: the September 4-expiry 235 Put $NVDA 20260904 235.0 PUT$ — volume 9,1
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ A knockout move. Someone opened a 100,000-contract call combo with a notional value of nearly $10 million — buying 100,000 contracts of this week's 230 call$NVDA 20260828 230.0 CALL$ while selling this week's 240 call$NVDA 20260828 240.0 CALL$. Ten million dollars on weekly options — is this just throwing money around, or do they actually know something? Either way, if NVIDIA's stock rallies to 230 after tomorrow's earnings, it would give the U.S. stock market a serious boost ju
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ NVIDIA's post-earnings data on Wednesday was good, but it had little impact on the stock price. The real driver is the September 18 Triple Witching open interest settlement: the top Calls and top Puts will be max-pained, pinning the stock in the $200–210 range. So it's hard to see a directional trend before Triple Witching. Take Pelosi buying the dip on INTC — before Triple Witching, INTC will struggle to break above 110, and it's also hard to break above 100. If you hold the underlying stock, consider selling the 100 call $INTC 20260918 100.0 CALL$ to just ride it out through early September. It's worth noting that large block trades can have reverse effects. Earli
Just now, news broke that Pelosi disclosed buying the dip on $Intel(INTC)$$Bloom Energy Corp(BE)$ — purchasing 15,000 shares of BE, 10,000 shares of INTC, as well as 500 BE LEAPS calls $BE 20270617 100.0 CALL$ and 500k worth of INTC LEAPS calls $INTC 20270617 50.0 CALL$. Using deep ITM LEAPS calls to buy the dip has many advantages: you only need half the capital to gain exposure equivalent to 100 shares of the underlying stock. Deep ITM calls are resistant to downside moves and can be exercised. The only drawback is that leverage is lower than OTM calls. BE was once a cor
$iShares Bitcoin Trust(IBIT)$ It's Bitcoin's shorts' turn to get squeezed. This is quite instructive — so what other products out there currently have high short interest? Speaking of which, I saw a large 100,000-contract bearish block trade a few days ago $IBIT 20281215 20.0 PUT$ , with notional volume of roughly $30+ million. Although it hasn't been closed yet, it's currently down 15%. Fortunately, it's a long-dated put, which is more resistant to downward moves — a near-term put would probably be down 50% by now. Bullish call block trades are the 39.5 call and 45 call $IBIT 20260925 39.5 CALL$
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ There's really not much point in looking at SPY's options activity anymore — it's really hard to make it drop. If it does drop, just sell puts. The Trump Account is basically a cheat code for the S&P 500. It indirectly turns every oversold trillion-dollar stock into a market-lifting reserve. So don't be fooled by AVGO getting hammered — it's a bear trap, storing up fuel for the broader market rally. A block trade opened 10,000 contracts of the 355 Sell Put $AVGO 20260831 355.0 PUT$ — the trader is definitely betting on this dynamic. The only thing is, Trump isn't entirely satisfied with the current account registration numbers yet, so he's stepp