To The Moon

The much-anticipated Federal Reserve decision came and went last week, with the 25-basis-point move ultimately causing little market disruption. Following the intraday and weekly tug-of-war between bulls and bears, the short-term outlook has become broadly clear: risk assets are likely to maintain their current choppy upward trend over the next one to two months. Whether it is gold, where our order narrowly missed being filled by just a few dollars, or U.S. equity indices, which remain near their highs, pullbacks should continue to offer opportunities to buy in the near term. $Gold - main 2612(GCmain)$ $E-Micro Gold - Dec 2026(MGC2612)$

This week’s macro focus was the Fed’s September meeting. On September 16, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, its first hike in more than three years, after markets had priced in more than 92% odds. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly hit 5.0266%, widening the 10-year/3-month spread to 89 basis points. Meanwhile, escalating Middle East tensions lifted Brent above $109 a barrel and drove WTI up about 9.6% for the week. Higher yields and geopolitical risk weighed on U.S. equities, with the Dow down 1.56% and the S&P 500 off 0.78%. Commodities diverged: crude gained nearly 10%, while copper and aluminum each fell about 1%. Gold lost 1.4% and silver fell more than 5%, extending precious metals’ losing streak to three weeks. As of the close on September 16, 2026, the week

Disclaimer: The views expressed below are personal opinions only and do not constitute investment advice. They are provided for informational purposes only. Last night, I shared my views in Tiger’s futures livestream following the Federal Reserve’s overnight rate hike. With the decision now behind us, markets have entered a critical phase of testing whether the negative catalyst has been fully priced in. The discussion covered the real drivers behind the rate decision, the outlook for future policy, long-dated U.S. Treasury yields as the key market gauge, and trading views on crypto assets, gold, U.S. equities, crude oil, and foreign exchange. For those who missed the session, the replay is available>>

After holding the positions for more than two months, our long EUR and WTI crude oil trades both generated positive returns last week. With a Federal Reserve rate hike drawing near, new trade setups may emerge at any time. Many investors still have questions about several key issues. This week, we will use the current market backdrop to review the main considerations and provide a practical framework. Managing Futures Contract Rollovers One of the most common questions concerns futures contract rollovers. Because we frequently run swing trades and some positions are held for relatively long periods, changes in the front-month or most-active contract are sometimes unavoidable. Since physical delivery is generally not a practical option, the choices are usually limited to the following: Sett

Last week’s CPI release brought market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike into much sharper alignment. Following the euro area’s earlier rate increase and a 0.3% month-over-month rise in core CPI, markets are now pricing in roughly a 90% probability that the Fed will raise rates in September. Although core CPI came in marginally above expectations, the overall reading was not excessively strong. In particular, core CPI has not accelerated significantly even with oil prices approaching USD 100 per barrel. The market also generally expects the Fed’s tightening path to remain relatively gradual. As a result, a rate hike this week is largely priced in. Conversely, if the Fed unexpectedly leaves rates unchanged, the decision could be interpreted as a positive surprise and potentially

Last week’s note highlighted the need for caution around the nonfarm payrolls report. The data had become more difficult to forecast than usual because payroll figures have been revised frequently in recent years, increasing the likelihood of surprises and larger market swings. The result was indeed a blowout: U.S. Department of Labor data showed that nonfarm employment surged by 162,000 in August, far exceeding the market expectation of 55,000. This exceptionally strong report once again disrupted the market’s expectations for Federal Reserve policy. The market had previously scaled back expectations of a September rate hike, but the release put rate-hike expectations back in the driver’s seat. The probability of a Fed rate increase in September has now returned to roughly a 60/40 split.

Recently, the broader market and most asset classes have remained locked in a relatively measured, range-bound tug-of-war. Inflation and rate-hike discussions have driven short-term volatility, but they have not triggered any meaningful change in the overall trend. Meanwhile, in a less closely watched corner of the market, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has gradually climbed back toward the highs of the previous tightening cycle. If bond prices lose further control from here, both the Federal Reserve and the market itself could face significant challenges. In theory, changes in U.S. interest rates drive fluctuations in Treasury prices and, in turn, movements in Treasury yields. In other words, policy rates should serve as the anchor. This year, however, long-dated Treasury yields have cle

Last night, I hosted a live session on Tiger’s futures platform titled Global Multi-Asset Allocation Strategy. The session covered global macro conditions, U.S. equities, gold, and Bitcoin, with a focus on the market’s key tensions, potential risks, and corresponding trading ideas. For those who were unable to attend the live session, the replay is available here >>> U.S. Stocks: Will Semis Drag Markets Lower Again? Bitcoin: Escape Hatch or Bomb? Below, I have organized the key information and trading-related views from the session to help readers who did not have time to attend quickly understand my current market perspective. Before that, let me briefly introduce my background. I am currently a contracte

As of the close on August 28, 2026, this report examines the interaction among interest-rate expectations, the U.S. dollar, inventory data, fund flows, and speculative positioning across gold, silver, crude oil, copper, and aluminum. Market Overview U.S. July PCE inflation rose 3.7% year over year, while core PCE inflation increased 3.3%; both remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. At the Jackson Hole meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh stated explicitly that “if inflation does not decline meaningfully, further rate hikes may be necessary,” significantly increasing market expectations for a September rate hike. Against this backdrop, the commodity market featured precious metals consolidating at elevated levels before pulling back, crude oil retreating as its geopolitical p

Find out more here:Tiger BOSS Debit Card Epic Rewards Refer More Earn More!

Rising oil prices are no longer just an energy-sector story. They are pushing Treasury yields higher through inflation expectations, raising the probability of a Fed rate hike in September, and compressing valuations across the rest of the market—the September 1 selloff in U.S. equities was the result of this entire chain being repriced at once. On Tuesday, September 1, all four major U.S. indexes closed lower. The S&P 500 fell 0.71% to 7,631.47, the Dow dropped 419.02 points to 52,766.88, the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.03% to 26,099.77, and the Russell 2000 fell 1.23% to 2,920. The real driver on the day came from the Middle East. U.S. forces launched a new round of strikes against Iranian targets around the Strait of Hormuz, after two oil tankers had been attacked in the waterway. T

Late August is typically when the world’s central banks hold a major annual gathering. The Federal Reserve—the “central bank of the world,” as it is sometimes described—is the central figure at the event, and remarks from the Fed Chair are often viewed as a briefing to central banks around the world on the Fed’s policy path. At present, the financial market’s primary concern is whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates and, if so, when. That is why Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish remarks last week had a significant impact on market expectations. The most direct result was that, following Warsh’s speech in Jackson Hole on August 28, 2026, the interest-rate futures-implied probability of a September rate hike rose from approximately 35% the previous day to nearly 60%. A rate hike

Find out more here:Tiger BOSS Debit Card Epic Rewards Refer More Earn More!

Mastering SGX's Newest High Leverage Gold & Silver DLCs 🌟🌟🌟Welcome to the ultimate precision toolset for macro scalpers.  The launch of Societe Generale's first ever Gold and Silver Daily Leverage Certificates or DLCs on the SGX represents a massive structural upgrade for directional traders across Asia. By tracking the world's most liquid precious metals ETFs $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$  and $iShares Silver Trust(SLV)$  with a near perfect 0.98 correlation to spot prices, you no longer have to navigate chunky futures contracts, overnight currency friction or complex margin calls.  Trading with fixed leverage factors of 3x for Si

Building a 10–15% core allocation in gold or liquid proxies (GLD) protects against long-term sovereign debt dynamics, but tactical traders should wait for real yields to stabilize before aggressively chasing equity miners at multi-month highs.

Ray Dalio’s call for a 10–15% allocation to gold aligns cleanly with current structural debt dynamics, but taking a full 15% position today overlooks the macro friction created by short-term real rates. While spot gold pushing to $4,647 reflects growing market concern over long-term fiscal sustainability and currency debasement, the move remains a tactical recovery below January's $5,608 peak rather than an unconstrained breakout—especially with hawkish central bank commentary and sticky inflation threatening to lift real yields. Rather than over-allocating upfront, building a 5–10% core hedge via GLD combined with selective exposure to operational leverage through gold miners like Newmont offers the optimal balance between long-term macro protection and downside risk management.

I’m leaning cautiously bullish on gold here, but I wouldn’t chase it aggressively. The Treasury buyback is a positive liquidity signal, but compared with the overall Treasury market, the scale is still relatively small and very different from QE. For me, the bigger drivers are still long-term: elevated U.S. debt, currency concerns, inflation uncertainty and the possibility of lower rates. Gold moving first makes sense, but I’d rather wait for confirmation from Treasury yields and broader macro data before adding heavily. If long-term yields remain above 5%, that could still pressure gold in the short term. Overall, I think gold still has room to run, but the path won’t be straight. I’d prefer to use pullbacks to build exposure gradually rather than buying after a sharp rally, especially w

I remain cautiously bullish on gold. Treasury buybacks are a meaningful liquidity signal, but their size is still too small to solve America’s deeper fiscal problems. The bigger story remains huge debt, persistent deficits, inflation risks and elevated long-term yields. Gold’s quick reaction shows investors are becoming more sensitive to fiscal and liquidity signals. But this doesn’t automatically make the rally sustainable. If yields rebound or the dollar strengthens, gold could face sharp profit-taking. My view: gold still has room to run, especially if real yields decline, but chasing every spike is dangerous. I’d rather buy pullbacks and watch Treasury yields, the dollar and inflation expectations for confirmation. @WallStreet_Tiger

In my limited understanding the following will decide the flow. 1. Treasury Intervention:  U.S. govt's buyback of long-dated bonds to cool yields raised market concerns over currency debasement. 2. Debasement Trade Resumes: major investors heavily buying gold to hedge against a compounding $40 trillion national debt and fiat dilution. 3. Geopolitics: Ongoing conflicts in the ME and global trade sanctions further driving safe-haven demand into gold. 4. Strong Institutional Backing: Major firms  maintain structural long-term targets pointing toward the $6,000 mark by year-end. 5. Crtical near-term Catalysts: sustainability of rally rests on upcoming PCE inflation data and the Fed’s policy tone. Till then happy investing.

Hi Tigers 🐯, Welcome to "What the Tigers Say." 👋 Last week, market attention shifted from the Fed to the Treasury after expanded long-term Treasury buybacks sparked fresh debate across $Gold.com(GOLD)$, crypto, and equities. While gold responded quickly to the liquidity signal, three Tigers looked deeper into whether the move represents a sustainable opportunity or a temporary market reaction. Before the market made its next move, the community had already broken down the key questions. Let’s revisit three perspectives from @Ivan_Gan, @程俊Dream, and

The much-anticipated Federal Reserve decision came and went last week, with the 25-basis-point move ultimately causing little market disruption. Following the intraday and weekly tug-of-war between bulls and bears, the short-term outlook has become broadly clear: risk assets are likely to maintain their current choppy upward trend over the next one to two months. Whether it is gold, where our order narrowly missed being filled by just a few dollars, or U.S. equity indices, which remain near their highs, pullbacks should continue to offer opportunities to buy in the near term. $Gold - main 2612(GCmain)$ $E-Micro Gold - Dec 2026(MGC2612)$

This week’s macro focus was the Fed’s September meeting. On September 16, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, its first hike in more than three years, after markets had priced in more than 92% odds. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly hit 5.0266%, widening the 10-year/3-month spread to 89 basis points. Meanwhile, escalating Middle East tensions lifted Brent above $109 a barrel and drove WTI up about 9.6% for the week. Higher yields and geopolitical risk weighed on U.S. equities, with the Dow down 1.56% and the S&P 500 off 0.78%. Commodities diverged: crude gained nearly 10%, while copper and aluminum each fell about 1%. Gold lost 1.4% and silver fell more than 5%, extending precious metals’ losing streak to three weeks. As of the close on September 16, 2026, the week

Disclaimer: The views expressed below are personal opinions only and do not constitute investment advice. They are provided for informational purposes only. Last night, I shared my views in Tiger’s futures livestream following the Federal Reserve’s overnight rate hike. With the decision now behind us, markets have entered a critical phase of testing whether the negative catalyst has been fully priced in. The discussion covered the real drivers behind the rate decision, the outlook for future policy, long-dated U.S. Treasury yields as the key market gauge, and trading views on crypto assets, gold, U.S. equities, crude oil, and foreign exchange. For those who missed the session, the replay is available>>

Last week’s CPI release brought market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike into much sharper alignment. Following the euro area’s earlier rate increase and a 0.3% month-over-month rise in core CPI, markets are now pricing in roughly a 90% probability that the Fed will raise rates in September. Although core CPI came in marginally above expectations, the overall reading was not excessively strong. In particular, core CPI has not accelerated significantly even with oil prices approaching USD 100 per barrel. The market also generally expects the Fed’s tightening path to remain relatively gradual. As a result, a rate hike this week is largely priced in. Conversely, if the Fed unexpectedly leaves rates unchanged, the decision could be interpreted as a positive surprise and potentially

After holding the positions for more than two months, our long EUR and WTI crude oil trades both generated positive returns last week. With a Federal Reserve rate hike drawing near, new trade setups may emerge at any time. Many investors still have questions about several key issues. This week, we will use the current market backdrop to review the main considerations and provide a practical framework. Managing Futures Contract Rollovers One of the most common questions concerns futures contract rollovers. Because we frequently run swing trades and some positions are held for relatively long periods, changes in the front-month or most-active contract are sometimes unavoidable. Since physical delivery is generally not a practical option, the choices are usually limited to the following: Sett

Last night, I hosted a live session on Tiger’s futures platform titled Global Multi-Asset Allocation Strategy. The session covered global macro conditions, U.S. equities, gold, and Bitcoin, with a focus on the market’s key tensions, potential risks, and corresponding trading ideas. For those who were unable to attend the live session, the replay is available here >>> U.S. Stocks: Will Semis Drag Markets Lower Again? Bitcoin: Escape Hatch or Bomb? Below, I have organized the key information and trading-related views from the session to help readers who did not have time to attend quickly understand my current market perspective. Before that, let me briefly introduce my background. I am currently a contracte

As of the close on August 28, 2026, this report examines the interaction among interest-rate expectations, the U.S. dollar, inventory data, fund flows, and speculative positioning across gold, silver, crude oil, copper, and aluminum. Market Overview U.S. July PCE inflation rose 3.7% year over year, while core PCE inflation increased 3.3%; both remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. At the Jackson Hole meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh stated explicitly that “if inflation does not decline meaningfully, further rate hikes may be necessary,” significantly increasing market expectations for a September rate hike. Against this backdrop, the commodity market featured precious metals consolidating at elevated levels before pulling back, crude oil retreating as its geopolitical p

Last week’s note highlighted the need for caution around the nonfarm payrolls report. The data had become more difficult to forecast than usual because payroll figures have been revised frequently in recent years, increasing the likelihood of surprises and larger market swings. The result was indeed a blowout: U.S. Department of Labor data showed that nonfarm employment surged by 162,000 in August, far exceeding the market expectation of 55,000. This exceptionally strong report once again disrupted the market’s expectations for Federal Reserve policy. The market had previously scaled back expectations of a September rate hike, but the release put rate-hike expectations back in the driver’s seat. The probability of a Fed rate increase in September has now returned to roughly a 60/40 split.

Recently, the broader market and most asset classes have remained locked in a relatively measured, range-bound tug-of-war. Inflation and rate-hike discussions have driven short-term volatility, but they have not triggered any meaningful change in the overall trend. Meanwhile, in a less closely watched corner of the market, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has gradually climbed back toward the highs of the previous tightening cycle. If bond prices lose further control from here, both the Federal Reserve and the market itself could face significant challenges. In theory, changes in U.S. interest rates drive fluctuations in Treasury prices and, in turn, movements in Treasury yields. In other words, policy rates should serve as the anchor. This year, however, long-dated Treasury yields have cle

Rising oil prices are no longer just an energy-sector story. They are pushing Treasury yields higher through inflation expectations, raising the probability of a Fed rate hike in September, and compressing valuations across the rest of the market—the September 1 selloff in U.S. equities was the result of this entire chain being repriced at once. On Tuesday, September 1, all four major U.S. indexes closed lower. The S&P 500 fell 0.71% to 7,631.47, the Dow dropped 419.02 points to 52,766.88, the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.03% to 26,099.77, and the Russell 2000 fell 1.23% to 2,920. The real driver on the day came from the Middle East. U.S. forces launched a new round of strikes against Iranian targets around the Strait of Hormuz, after two oil tankers had been attacked in the waterway. T

Late August is typically when the world’s central banks hold a major annual gathering. The Federal Reserve—the “central bank of the world,” as it is sometimes described—is the central figure at the event, and remarks from the Fed Chair are often viewed as a briefing to central banks around the world on the Fed’s policy path. At present, the financial market’s primary concern is whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates and, if so, when. That is why Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish remarks last week had a significant impact on market expectations. The most direct result was that, following Warsh’s speech in Jackson Hole on August 28, 2026, the interest-rate futures-implied probability of a September rate hike rose from approximately 35% the previous day to nearly 60%. A rate hike

This Week’s Highlights 1. The U.S. Treasury will at least double the size of its liquidity-support buybacks for Treasury securities maturing in 10 to 30 years, raising the cap per operation from USD 2 billion to at least USD 4 billion. This measure may help stabilize the long-term bond market temporarily and suggests that the Treasury may be seeking to keep long-term yields near 5%. However, Treasury buybacks are not equivalent to the Federal Reserve purchasing bonds with newly created money through quantitative easing. They more closely resemble replacing long-term debt with short-term debt, and therefore cannot fundamentally eliminate the pressure from high deficits, elevated interest costs, and excessive long-term bond supply. If the market instead questions the government’s ability to

I believe most market participants currently recognize that U.S. equities are at an extremely delicate point of equilibrium. Technically, the S&P 500 has already fallen below its 20-day moving average, and bearish sentiment has intensified sharply. At the fundamental level, however, the fragile balance among U.S. Treasuries, U.S. equities, confidence in the U.S. dollar, and inflation expectations remains unchanged. The Treasury’s expansion of its long-term Treasury buyback program may appear to stabilize the market, but in the face of rapidly rising debt and elevated interest costs, the measure looks more like an attempt to buy time than to solve the underlying problem. $标普500(.SPX)$

Mastering SGX's Newest High Leverage Gold & Silver DLCs 🌟🌟🌟Welcome to the ultimate precision toolset for macro scalpers.  The launch of Societe Generale's first ever Gold and Silver Daily Leverage Certificates or DLCs on the SGX represents a massive structural upgrade for directional traders across Asia. By tracking the world's most liquid precious metals ETFs $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$  and $iShares Silver Trust(SLV)$  with a near perfect 0.98 correlation to spot prices, you no longer have to navigate chunky futures contracts, overnight currency friction or complex margin calls.  Trading with fixed leverage factors of 3x for Si

Hi Tigers 🐯, Welcome to "What the Tigers Say." 👋 Last week, market attention shifted from the Fed to the Treasury after expanded long-term Treasury buybacks sparked fresh debate across $Gold.com(GOLD)$, crypto, and equities. While gold responded quickly to the liquidity signal, three Tigers looked deeper into whether the move represents a sustainable opportunity or a temporary market reaction. Before the market made its next move, the community had already broken down the key questions. Let’s revisit three perspectives from @Ivan_Gan, @程俊Dream, and

As gold prices press into historic high territory, global investors face a structural turning point in asset allocation. Driven by persistent central bank demand, expanding sovereign debt, inflation tail-risks, and heightened geopolitical friction, bullion has reaffirmed its role as the premier non-fiat store of value. Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, advocates for a 10% to 15% portfolio allocation to gold as a structural hedge against fiat debasement, monetary disorder, and geopolitical stress. In this article, we would like to share our detailed analysis of whether retail and institutional investors should emulate Dalio’s model, how to execute exposure efficiently, and the critical trade-offs between physical gold vehicles and gold mining equities. 1. Introduction: The Macro

Weekly Outlook Summary The central view this week is as follows: After weaker U.S. employment data, expectations for further rate hikes eased, temporarily supporting U.S. equities and risk assets. However, the rebound in oil prices, the renewed repricing of inflation, and rising Treasury yields are weakening the fundamental support for further gains in high-valuation U.S. equities. In the near term, the market may again become range-bound. The strategic focus should therefore shift from outright directional positioning toward capturing a rebound in volatility, collecting option time value, and implementing strict risk controls. Policy expectations remain the primary market driver. Following the release of the nonfarm payrolls report, market expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hik

While the market remained focused on the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike, the U.S. Treasury released a surprising announcement last week. The Treasury announced that it would “at least double” the size of its liquidity-support buyback operations for Treasury securities maturing in 10 to 30 years, raising the cap for each buyback from USD 2 billion to at least USD 4 billion. Relative to the USD 31 trillion U.S. Treasury market, this buyback volume is negligible. Nevertheless, the Treasury’s move conveyed several messages to the market. First, long-term bond yields are too high, and the Treasury intends to exert some control over them. Second, Treasury yields around 5% may represent a psychological threshold for the U.S. Treasury; if yields deviate too far from that level, more fo

The market did not take long to choose a short- to medium-term direction. Last week, gold and crypto assets both surged, making it clear that the market had entered a new phase of rebound. The previous trading logic can therefore be carried forward naturally, and risk assets are expected to remain resilient through the period before the fourth quarter. The only factor requiring particular caution is the speed of the advance. The logic chain of crypto assets—gold—risk assets changed slightly during last week’s trading. Following the news that the U.S. Treasury would purchase bonds, gold reacted most quickly. However, in terms of both absolute gains and the pace of appreciation, Bitcoin and Ethereum—whose volatility is inherently higher—soon staged a catch-up move and outperformed the earlie

Over the past week, the core narrative shaping global asset pricing revolved around two themes. On the geopolitical front, negotiations between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz reached an impasse, with both sides engaging in heated exchanges and refusing to yield. According to Bloomberg tanker-tracking data, Middle Eastern crude oil loadings fell from 20 million barrels per day in early July to 12 million barrels per day by the end of July, with the supply disruption shifting from a “risk premium” into a “physical supply shortfall.” On the macroeconomic front, U.S. headline CPI rose 3.4% year over year in July, while core CPI increased 2.5%; month-over-month growth resumed. PPI rose 4.7% year over year, while nonfarm payroll employment unexpectedly declined by 23,000 in