To The Moon

Fear of war risk and market is sensitive to news regarding oil price and inflation. Expect short-term to be volatile and range-bound.

Whatever Trump tweet, is all manipulating The market to his advantage   The attack of Iran is the best way he can enhance his wealth along with his puppet masters   The outcome of the attack is of no importance   As one can see the given 'deadline' kept pushed back  When he buy times market will either stalled or rebound   Then he will tweet again of further attack to bring oil price up and the cycle goes on  

Last Week's Recap 1. U.S. Market Summary: Stocks Snap 5-Week Slide as Oil Surges to $112 Relief rally: Major U.S. indexes gained 3–4% last week, snapping a five-week losing streak. Resurgent oil: U.S. crude climbed to ~$112/barrel Friday—highest since mid-2022—amid escalating Strait of Hormuz tensions. Golden rebound: $Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$ recovered March losses, rising nearly 4% to trade around $4,700 on last friday. Yields reverse course: Treasury yields slipped after four weeks of gains that pushed 10-year rates to eight-month highs. March decline: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ fell ~5% in March for back-to-back monthly losses;

Trump is rightly nicknamed TACO and is making loud calls. The 48 hours threat has no meaning for Iran. Iran is now targeting Israel and US assets deployed in Gulf with resounding success. World economy is highly stressed due to cascading impact of fuel prices. Inflation will continue to rise. Investors will be reluctant to invest but there could be opportunities for picking up bargains in shares like MSFT, Google and PANW.

The question now is really about oil, war risk, and market timing, so we need to separate two things: 1. Will oil make new highs 2. Whether this is a good time to buy stocks --- Will oil set a new high? Short answer: Yes, there is a real possibility, but it depends on whether energy infrastructure or the Strait of Hormuz is affected. Historically, oil spikes when: Supply disruption Tanker routes blocked Energy infrastructure bombed War spreads regionally If Iran oil exports or Strait of Hormuz shipping is disrupted: Oil can spike very fast Prices can overshoot fundamentals Then crash later when fear fades Rough scenario framework: No supply disruption → Oil $95–110 Limited infrastructure strikes → $110–130 Strait of Hormuz disruption → $130–180 spike possible Full regional war → temporary

Despite Trump claiming “victory” in the conflict with Iran, the situation remains far from resolved, with ongoing military activity, no confirmed ceasefire, and continued tensions in the region. His statements are widely seen as political messaging rather than a signal that the war has ended, as both sides are still capable of escalation and there is no clear agreement in place. As a result, the risk of the conflict “kicking back” or intensifying again remains high, which is why global markets are reacting cautiously rather than treating the situation as fully stabilised.

Go Get Your Own Oil On March 31, 2026, the President of the United States told countries like the UK to go to the Strait of Hormuz and “just take” fuel. He said Iran had been “essentially, decimated” and the hard part was done. He told allies who “refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran” that America wouldn’t be there to help anymore. Then he offered to sell them jet fuel. This was posted on Truth Social. Not in a diplomatic cable. Not through back channels. On social media, like it was a product launch. Five thousand kilometres away, government workers in Thailand were told to take the stairs instead of the elevator to save energy. Vietnam scrapped import duties on petroleum to prevent shortages. The Philippines declared a national energy emergency and moved to a four-day work

Trump’s "Victory" Triggers an Oil Spike — Is Geopolitical Risk the New VIX? Donald Trump just claimed an “overwhelming victory” in the ongoing US-Iran conflict, but if you look at the tape, the market is pricing in anything but peace. By threatening two to three more weeks of "extremely hard" strikes explicitly targeting Iranian energy and infrastructure, he instantly dashed hopes of a quick de-escalation. The result? Brent crude violently spiked back above $109, WTI surged, and US stock futures took a heavy hit. The geopolitical risk premium didn’t just return—it took the steering wheel. Here is why this escalation matters for your portfolio and why the “buy the dip” crowd might be misreading the macro setup. 1️⃣ The "Victory" Disconnect & The Oil Shock Retail traders often look at po

There is a Chinese saying - yue miao yue hei (see above) when translated literally it means “the more you try to explain or touch up a matter, the darker it becomes". Actual meaning suggests - attempting to justify a mistake only makes it more obvious or creates further misunderstanding, similar to "making matters worse" or a cover-up. That was exactly when transpired on 01 April 2026 at 9pm ET (or 02 Apr 2026, 9am Singapore time) when Trump addressed US citizens about Iran invasion. Evening Address - Overall. Instead of providing clear answers, Trump’s speech made investors more worried about the risks of war, causing markets to drop in response. As of 02 Apr 2026 - 5pm Singapore time Oil spiked, Asian equities fell, and US futures for the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq all turned lower as

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anyone who believes this  would be a short war has rocks in their head, like the Commander and Chief. as for shorting the market, I think it is a very good idea. or have a delta neutral strategy. from what I can tell  the bull market has paused for the foreseeable future. at the very least

The "Stone Age" Fallout: Vanguard VT ETF is My Global Anchor 🌟🌟🌟 The "Peace Rally" of earlier this week has officially been replaced by a "Stone Age" reality check.  After Trump's prime address on Wednesday night where he claimed military goals were nearly met but vowed to hit Iran extremely hard for another 2 to 3 weeks to "finish the job", global markets took a beating. The Stone Age Fallout  Oil's Vertical Climb Brent Crude futures surged over 6% to USD 107.49, while US WTI jumped more than 10% to top USD 111 per barrel.  This price spike was triggered by Trump's renewed threats to hit Iranian infrastructure and his lack of clear plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Stocks in Retreat  The optimism that fueled nearly 3% gain in the S&P500 on Tuesday has evapo

TACO again x2? LOL hahahaha

I believe trump will follow the history of Bush on Iraq invasion. it will be highly likely that the war will end in few weeks time

A Geopolitical Supply Shock Spurs 20% Sector Weekly Rally Executive Summary for SG Investors The U.S. aluminum sector has emerged as the top-performing industry cluster this week, with the five primary listed names gaining +37.6% sector-wide year-to-date. The catalyst: a perfect storm of Middle East supply disruptions (Iranian missile strikes on GCC smelters) and aggressive U.S. tariff protectionism creating a structural deficit in global aluminum markets. Key Catalysts Driving the Rally 1. Middle East Supply Crisis (Primary Driver) On March 28, 2026, Iranian missile strikes targeted the Gulf's largest aluminum smelters—UAE's Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) and Bahrain's Alba—causing "significant damage" and operational halts. Supply Impact: Regional Risk: The Middle East accounts for ~9%

U. S. President Donald Trump delivered a national televised address on the evening of April 1, unilaterally claiming a "swift, decisive, and overwhelming victory" in military operations against Iran. He also stated that the U.S. will continue to heavily strike Iran over the next "two to three weeks," while negotiations with Iran are simultaneously proceeding. His remarks have utterly shattered the market's expectations that the "U.S.-Iran war" could end in the short term. Moreover, his approach of negotiating while launching military strikes strongly highlights an anxious state within the Trump administration: attempting to stabilize oil prices and inflation while being unable to conclude the war quickly, essentially being dragged down by Iran. The situation has clearly spiraled out of con

He flip flops, causing volatility in the market 

Holding positions over this weekend is becoming a dangerous gamble Last week's rebound in risk assets was a flash in the pan, with equities and other long positions facing a renewed wave of downward pressure. As Trump's April 6 ultimatum approaches, the Middle East will soon deliver a short-term answer—whether it's a diplomatic agreement or a massive military deployment. Most assets are expected to choose their direction by late this week or early next, and investors must be particularly hyper-aware of the gap risks heading into the weekend. If the situation remains unresolved by Friday's close, holding positions over the weekend becomes incredibly risky.   $NQ100指数主连 2606(NQmain)$ $SP500指数主连 260

The portfolio saw a decline of SGD 26,000 this month, representing a 4.5% loss. Despite this monthly setback, year-to-date dividends have accumulated to SGD 13,000. Market volatility in March was driven largely by escalating conflicts between the US and Iran. I viewed this as an opportunity and increased my positions during the downturn. Following a review of the 2025 financial results, I remain generally satisfied; my portfolio holdings showed high resilience with minimal changes following the earnings announcements. $NikkoAM-STC Asia REIT(CFA.SI)$  $BOC HONG KONG(02388)$   $BABA-W(09988)$  

This past weekend was actually the calmest in recent weeks. Markets had expected the U.S. to deploy ground forces to seize Iran’s Kharg Island, but aside from strikes on Iranian steel plants, there was little major action. Overall, it was relatively quiet compared to prior weeks. However, actions of this scale alone by the U.S. and Israel are not enough to resolve the current blockade of the strait. The real turning point will come when the strait is reopened—that’s when a fundamental shift occurs. At present, the Pentagon appears to be aiming to replicate the rapid success seen during the 1990 Gulf War, hoping to quickly resolve the blockade within one to three months. Whether that is realistic remains to be seen, and only actual deployment will provide answers. But if even U.S. ground fo

Last Week's Recap 1. U.S. Market Summary: Stocks Snap 5-Week Slide as Oil Surges to $112 Relief rally: Major U.S. indexes gained 3–4% last week, snapping a five-week losing streak. Resurgent oil: U.S. crude climbed to ~$112/barrel Friday—highest since mid-2022—amid escalating Strait of Hormuz tensions. Golden rebound: $Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$ recovered March losses, rising nearly 4% to trade around $4,700 on last friday. Yields reverse course: Treasury yields slipped after four weeks of gains that pushed 10-year rates to eight-month highs. March decline: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ fell ~5% in March for back-to-back monthly losses;

Fear of war risk and market is sensitive to news regarding oil price and inflation. Expect short-term to be volatile and range-bound.

Whatever Trump tweet, is all manipulating The market to his advantage   The attack of Iran is the best way he can enhance his wealth along with his puppet masters   The outcome of the attack is of no importance   As one can see the given 'deadline' kept pushed back  When he buy times market will either stalled or rebound   Then he will tweet again of further attack to bring oil price up and the cycle goes on  

There is a Chinese saying - yue miao yue hei (see above) when translated literally it means “the more you try to explain or touch up a matter, the darker it becomes". Actual meaning suggests - attempting to justify a mistake only makes it more obvious or creates further misunderstanding, similar to "making matters worse" or a cover-up. That was exactly when transpired on 01 April 2026 at 9pm ET (or 02 Apr 2026, 9am Singapore time) when Trump addressed US citizens about Iran invasion. Evening Address - Overall. Instead of providing clear answers, Trump’s speech made investors more worried about the risks of war, causing markets to drop in response. As of 02 Apr 2026 - 5pm Singapore time Oil spiked, Asian equities fell, and US futures for the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq all turned lower as

Go Get Your Own Oil On March 31, 2026, the President of the United States told countries like the UK to go to the Strait of Hormuz and “just take” fuel. He said Iran had been “essentially, decimated” and the hard part was done. He told allies who “refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran” that America wouldn’t be there to help anymore. Then he offered to sell them jet fuel. This was posted on Truth Social. Not in a diplomatic cable. Not through back channels. On social media, like it was a product launch. Five thousand kilometres away, government workers in Thailand were told to take the stairs instead of the elevator to save energy. Vietnam scrapped import duties on petroleum to prevent shortages. The Philippines declared a national energy emergency and moved to a four-day work

Trump’s "Victory" Triggers an Oil Spike — Is Geopolitical Risk the New VIX? Donald Trump just claimed an “overwhelming victory” in the ongoing US-Iran conflict, but if you look at the tape, the market is pricing in anything but peace. By threatening two to three more weeks of "extremely hard" strikes explicitly targeting Iranian energy and infrastructure, he instantly dashed hopes of a quick de-escalation. The result? Brent crude violently spiked back above $109, WTI surged, and US stock futures took a heavy hit. The geopolitical risk premium didn’t just return—it took the steering wheel. Here is why this escalation matters for your portfolio and why the “buy the dip” crowd might be misreading the macro setup. 1️⃣ The "Victory" Disconnect & The Oil Shock Retail traders often look at po

The question now is really about oil, war risk, and market timing, so we need to separate two things: 1. Will oil make new highs 2. Whether this is a good time to buy stocks --- Will oil set a new high? Short answer: Yes, there is a real possibility, but it depends on whether energy infrastructure or the Strait of Hormuz is affected. Historically, oil spikes when: Supply disruption Tanker routes blocked Energy infrastructure bombed War spreads regionally If Iran oil exports or Strait of Hormuz shipping is disrupted: Oil can spike very fast Prices can overshoot fundamentals Then crash later when fear fades Rough scenario framework: No supply disruption → Oil $95–110 Limited infrastructure strikes → $110–130 Strait of Hormuz disruption → $130–180 spike possible Full regional war → temporary

A Geopolitical Supply Shock Spurs 20% Sector Weekly Rally Executive Summary for SG Investors The U.S. aluminum sector has emerged as the top-performing industry cluster this week, with the five primary listed names gaining +37.6% sector-wide year-to-date. The catalyst: a perfect storm of Middle East supply disruptions (Iranian missile strikes on GCC smelters) and aggressive U.S. tariff protectionism creating a structural deficit in global aluminum markets. Key Catalysts Driving the Rally 1. Middle East Supply Crisis (Primary Driver) On March 28, 2026, Iranian missile strikes targeted the Gulf's largest aluminum smelters—UAE's Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) and Bahrain's Alba—causing "significant damage" and operational halts. Supply Impact: Regional Risk: The Middle East accounts for ~9%

U. S. President Donald Trump delivered a national televised address on the evening of April 1, unilaterally claiming a "swift, decisive, and overwhelming victory" in military operations against Iran. He also stated that the U.S. will continue to heavily strike Iran over the next "two to three weeks," while negotiations with Iran are simultaneously proceeding. His remarks have utterly shattered the market's expectations that the "U.S.-Iran war" could end in the short term. Moreover, his approach of negotiating while launching military strikes strongly highlights an anxious state within the Trump administration: attempting to stabilize oil prices and inflation while being unable to conclude the war quickly, essentially being dragged down by Iran. The situation has clearly spiraled out of con

The "Stone Age" Fallout: Vanguard VT ETF is My Global Anchor 🌟🌟🌟 The "Peace Rally" of earlier this week has officially been replaced by a "Stone Age" reality check.  After Trump's prime address on Wednesday night where he claimed military goals were nearly met but vowed to hit Iran extremely hard for another 2 to 3 weeks to "finish the job", global markets took a beating. The Stone Age Fallout  Oil's Vertical Climb Brent Crude futures surged over 6% to USD 107.49, while US WTI jumped more than 10% to top USD 111 per barrel.  This price spike was triggered by Trump's renewed threats to hit Iranian infrastructure and his lack of clear plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Stocks in Retreat  The optimism that fueled nearly 3% gain in the S&P500 on Tuesday has evapo

Trump is rightly nicknamed TACO and is making loud calls. The 48 hours threat has no meaning for Iran. Iran is now targeting Israel and US assets deployed in Gulf with resounding success. World economy is highly stressed due to cascading impact of fuel prices. Inflation will continue to rise. Investors will be reluctant to invest but there could be opportunities for picking up bargains in shares like MSFT, Google and PANW.

Despite Trump claiming “victory” in the conflict with Iran, the situation remains far from resolved, with ongoing military activity, no confirmed ceasefire, and continued tensions in the region. His statements are widely seen as political messaging rather than a signal that the war has ended, as both sides are still capable of escalation and there is no clear agreement in place. As a result, the risk of the conflict “kicking back” or intensifying again remains high, which is why global markets are reacting cautiously rather than treating the situation as fully stabilised.

Holding positions over this weekend is becoming a dangerous gamble Last week's rebound in risk assets was a flash in the pan, with equities and other long positions facing a renewed wave of downward pressure. As Trump's April 6 ultimatum approaches, the Middle East will soon deliver a short-term answer—whether it's a diplomatic agreement or a massive military deployment. Most assets are expected to choose their direction by late this week or early next, and investors must be particularly hyper-aware of the gap risks heading into the weekend. If the situation remains unresolved by Friday's close, holding positions over the weekend becomes incredibly risky.   $NQ100指数主连 2606(NQmain)$ $SP500指数主连 260

This past weekend was actually the calmest in recent weeks. Markets had expected the U.S. to deploy ground forces to seize Iran’s Kharg Island, but aside from strikes on Iranian steel plants, there was little major action. Overall, it was relatively quiet compared to prior weeks. However, actions of this scale alone by the U.S. and Israel are not enough to resolve the current blockade of the strait. The real turning point will come when the strait is reopened—that’s when a fundamental shift occurs. At present, the Pentagon appears to be aiming to replicate the rapid success seen during the 1990 Gulf War, hoping to quickly resolve the blockade within one to three months. Whether that is realistic remains to be seen, and only actual deployment will provide answers. But if even U.S. ground fo

🚨 US-IRAN CONFLICT: THE $150 OIL QUESTION — AND THE CLOCK IS TICKING April 6 is 5 days away. Here’s everything you need to know before the world changes. ⏳ 🌊 The Strait That’s Holding The World Hostage This is no longer just a Middle East conflict. This is a global energy crisis in real time. Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which roughly one-fifth of ALL the world’s traded oil and natural gas flows — has virtually ground to a halt since the US and Israel launched strikes against Iran on February 28. Iran retaliated by targeting vessels trying to pass through, and in a stunning move, began charging ships for “safe passage” in what Lloyd’s List Intelligence called a “de facto toll booth regime” — collecting fees in Chinese yuan. 🛳️💸 The result? Bre

1. US Equities Outlook $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2606(NQmain)$ $Micro E-Mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2606(MNQmain)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(ESmain)$ $Micro E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(MESmain)$I undoubtedly remain bearish on the current trajectory of US equity indices. However, for those holding naked short positions or buying the VIX on dips,

First, let's take a step back: why did precious metals suddenly plunge? most people in the market see three main explanations for the sharp drop in gold and silver: Logic 1: Global central banks have turned more hawkish, and higher interest rates effectively raise the cost of holding precious metals. Logic 2: The Middle East conflict has created an oil shortage, and energy has replaced precious metals as the “hard currency” of choice. Logic 3: Gold and silver were heavily crowded trades, and profittaking on stretched long positions has triggered a selling spiral. But I’m not really convinced by any of the three explanations above I broke these three arguments down in detail and leaned more toward a different interpretation: gold and silver are being sold as assets to raise cash, wh

# Go Get Your Own Oil On March 31, 2026, the President of the United States told countries like the UK to go to the Strait of Hormuz and “just take” fuel. He said Iran had been “essentially, decimated” and the hard part was done. He told allies who “refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran” that America wouldn’t be there to help anymore. Then he offered to sell them jet fuel. This was posted on Truth Social. Not in a diplomatic cable. Not through back channels. On social media, like it was a product launch. Five thousand kilometres away, government workers in Thailand were told to take the stairs instead of the elevator to save energy. Vietnam scrapped import duties on petroleum to prevent shortages. The Philippines declared a national energy emergency and moved to a four-day wo

South Korea’s stock market remains under pressure. The KOSPI index has fallen to around 5,052, dropping 4.3% in a single day. Over the past month, it has declined nearly 19%, marking the largest monthly drop since October 2008, and has pulled back more than 20% from its February high. From the perspective of daily performance, Korea-related ETFs broadly came under pressure. Among broad-based products, $韩国ETF-iShares MSCI(EWY)$ and $Franklin FTSE South Korea ETF(FLKR)$ both fell about 3.8%, largely reflecting the decline of the overall market. The actively managed $Matthews Korea Active ETF(MKOR)$ dropped a smaller 3.13%, showing relative resilience. The defense-th

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