In the latest week, US-Iran negotiations remained deadlocked. On May 18, Trump said that the military action against Iran originally scheduled for May 19 would be postponed, indicating that the US-Iran standoff did not escalate further this week. At the same time, the US publicly stated that the talks with Iran had made “significant progress,” while also saying that a “Plan B” was already prepared, which suggests that the substantive differences between the two sides have not been resolved. In addition to the ongoing market pricing of disruptions stemming from the Middle East situation, investors are also closely watching the progress of SpaceX, Elon Musk’s space company, which could potentially stage the “largest IPO in history.” As of 3:00 p.m. on May 21, 2026, the weekly performance of

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$   U.S. - Iran War News An official statement from Centcom detailed that Iran's offensive against three U.S. warships utilized "multiple missiles, drones, and small boats," but confirmed that "no U.S. assets were struck." The statement further explained that U.S. forces "neutralized incoming threats and struck Iranian military facilities responsible for the attacks, including missile and drone launch sites, command and control locations, and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance nodes." The specific targets of the American strikes were not disclosed. The military command emphasized that it "does not seek escalation but remains positioned and ready to protect American forces

In my previous post, I reminded everyone to pay attention to the short-term trading opportunity at the bottom of VIX, as well as the still-bullish opportunity in short-term crude oil deferred-month contracts, namely the September WTI crude oil contract. A week has passed, and both of those calls have played out: VIX has already bottomed and turned higher: The September crude oil futures contract has rebounded continuously from the bottom, already rising 17 points from its low: This time, let’s talk about the warning I have been repeatedly giving everyone: the issue of a medium- to short-term phased pullback in U.S. stocks. As the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields have both moved higher recently, global bond yields have broadly risen, and a pullback in global risk assets, character

What you are describing is a classic compression phase, not necessarily the end of the trend. When long-end yields spike to multi-decade highs, the immediate effect is mechanical. Discount rates rise, so long-duration assets, especially high-growth tech, get repriced down. That is why the Nasdaq Composite weakens even when fundamentals have not yet deteriorated. But the more important layer is positioning. If hedge funds are already deleveraging and short interest is rising, a fair amount of risk has already been taken out before the event. That changes the payoff structure around NVIDIA earnings. So where does the AI rally “breathe” if both yields stay high and NVDA disappoints? There are three realistic pressure valves: 1. Rotation within the AI stack If NVDA guidance underwhelms, capita

Over the last 40 years, Wall Street has maintained a brutal tradition: giving every incoming Federal Reserve Chair a violent "Welcome to the Market" hazing ritual. ​Let’s look at the tape: ​1. Paul Volcker (Aug 1979) ​Backdrop: The U.S. was facing historically terrifying inflation. ​The Hazing: Volcker came in swinging with an iron-fisted, hawkish approach, hiking rates aggressively. From his start in August to November, the S&P 500 dropped ~10%. It was short-term pain, but he eventually slayed the inflation dragon. ​2. Alan Greenspan (Aug 1987) ​Backdrop: An extended bull market with stretched valuations and the rise of algorithmic trading. ​The Hazing: The most brutal baptism of fire in history. Just two months after he took the keys to the money printer, "Black Monday" hit. On Oct 1

On 11 May 2026, I have presented a summary of all the Jobs reports out the week before (click here ! for the details) and wondered aloud how the inflation reports will affect US market. The week has come and gone, and I think most of us know what has happened. Here’s my recap, along with new developments that may affect the US market, going forward. US Consumer Inflation (April 2026.) April’s inflation data set the stage for the week ending Sat, 16 May 2026. The April 2026 CPI report from US Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) revealed a hotter-than-expected inflation picture. (see below) (a) Consumer Price Index (CPI). Headline monthly CPI was : +

$Strategy(MSTR)$   Strategy (MSTR) is the Monster Stock to Buy for Late 2026 For the points, this stock will rebound a couple of times to $230 in the next 3 months. 2026 has hardly brought any respite to the Strategy (Nasdaq: MSTR), formerly known as MicroStrategy, stock. Even though the stock is up nearly 10% this year, the performance has been rather flat over the last month. Even then, an analyst has raised its price target on the Strategy stock due to two reasons. Strategy's quarterly loss prompts possible strategy shift Founded as a software company in 1989, the Michael Saylor-led company turned to Bitcoin amid the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. It now holds 843,738 BTC on its balance sheet, consolidating i

Monday: $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ -8%, $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ -11%, $Lumentum(LITE)$ -9.3%, $Corning(GLW)$ -8.1% — AI photonics and storage getting hit. $NVDA$ pulled back from the $235 high to $222.32, extending lower pre-market to $220.98. Three variables are hanging over the market simultaneously this week: the Sell in May narrative is playing out, a new Fed chair just took office, and NVDA reports tomorrow night. What is Monday's selloff telling us? May is structurally a high-pressure month — end-of-quarter repositioning, late earnings season, summer liquidity compression. The "Sell in May" narrative tends to self-fulfill. But in

Warsh Takes the Wheel, Tech Bleeds: Is the AI Deleveraging a Trap or a Buy-the-Dip Gift? The Powell era is officially over. With Jerome Powell stepping down on May 15th and Kevin Warsh sworn in as the new Fed Chair, the market reacted exactly how you’d expect during a major regime change: with absolute violence. U.S. equities faced a sharp, broad-based liquidation on Monday, with high-beta tech, AI-photonics, and memory chips taking the brunt of the damage. But this wasn't just a regular red day—under the hood, both hedge funds and asset managers recorded simultaneous net selling, pushing macro short positions to a two-month high. The institutional smart money is actively de-risking. The question for retail now is simple: do you blindly buy this tech dip, or is this the start of a much dee

The Great Capital Migration: Why Rising Bond Yields and Geopolitical Chaos Require An Immediate Pivot to XLP, XLE and IAU ETFs  🌟🌟🌟The global financial order has just experienced a profound macro economic systemic break.  With the exit of Jerome Powell and the hawkish transition to Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair, there is much uncertainty in the markets.  On top of that, the fragile US Iran war truce threatens to completely fall apart. US Bond Sell Off The financial reality we are facing now is a severe systemic global bond sell off, where dropping bond prices are forcing yields vertically higher. The 30 year US Treasury Bond yield is currently sitting at a near 20 year high of 5.13%.  The 10 Year benchmark yield has rocketed to a 16 month high of 4.60%.  This is

This is no longer just an earnings story. It is a liquidity and duration problem colliding with a crowded narrative. When 30Y yields push toward cycle highs, three things happen simultaneously: Discount rates rise → long-duration assets like AI stocks compress Equity risk premium becomes less attractive → rotation out of high-multiple names Leverage gets unwound → hedge funds reduce gross exposure, especially in winners That is exactly what you are seeing: AI is not being abandoned, it is being de-risked. So where does the rally breathe if NVDA disappoints? 1. Earnings must shift from “hype” to “cash flow clarity” If NVDA shows not just demand but visible monetisation (margins, backlog quality, pricing power), it can offset yield pressure. Without that, multiples compress. 2. Rotation with

Expecting high volatility,  ponder "buy the rumour, sell the news".

🌟🌟🌟Sell in May and Go Away?  I don't think so.  Not when $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ is reporting its latest quarterly report today!  The global markets are holding their breath to see if Jensen Huang can single handedly ignite another massive technology supercycle or send everyone running for safety. Adding rocket to the fuel is Kevin Warsh, the new Fed Chair.  He takes the wheel at a time where the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sent energy prices spiralling, resulting in high inflation. Add or Trim NVIDIA?  I vote ADD.  Why? 3 reasons: Blackwell & Rubin Supercycles.  Jensen said that NVIDIA has locked in at least USD 1 Trillion in orders for both chips, through to end of 2027. Big Tech Capex: Hyperscalers are ac

$Strategy(MSTR)$   Analysts at TD Cowen think shares in Bitcoin treasury firm Strategy (MSTR) could jump as much as 139% to $400 per share in the next 12 months. The new forecast reflects a $5 per share bump, up from the analysts’ previous $395 price target. TD Cowen’s bullish update comes one day after the company announced it added $2 billion worth of Bitcoin over the previous week. “Strategy’s treasury operations continue to exceed expectations, with faster-than-anticipated Bitcoin accumulation and accretive balance sheet actions driving higher BTC per share and improved financial flexibility,” TD Cowen analysts wrote.  

$Strategy(MSTR)$   Analysts at TD Cowen think shares in Bitcoin treasury firm Strategy (MSTR) could jump as much as 139% to $400 per share in the next 12 months. The new forecast reflects a $5 per share bump, up from the analysts’ previous $395 price target. TD Cowen’s bullish update comes one day after the company announced it added $2 billion worth of Bitcoin over the previous week. “Strategy’s treasury operations continue to exceed expectations, with faster-than-anticipated Bitcoin accumulation and accretive balance sheet actions driving higher BTC per share and improved financial flexibility,” TD Cowen analysts wrote.  

Every year the same old phrase about selling in May and walking away, but blindly following a historical trend may not be the best idea this year. The reality of today's market is built on completely different engines than the past, and there are incredibly solid reasons why a sell in May isn't as likely or not to that extend this year. For a start, looking at corporate spending, the largest tech hyperscalers have collectively locked in nearly seven hundred billion dollars in infrastructure budgets for this year alone, and roughly three-quarters of that is tied directly to physical AI buildouts. This are massive, contracted physical infrastructure that doesn't just stop because the calendar turned to May.The race to AI supremacy is real. On top of that, look at the corporate receipts. Ear

Monday’s selloff looks more like positioning and seasonal pressure (“Sell in May”) than a breakdown in the AI trend. With AI names already stretched into $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ earnings, I’m not panicking, but I do expect continued volatility in high-beta stocks like $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ , $Lumentum(LITE)$ , and $Corning(GLW)$ . On the Fed side, I think the removal of forward guidance under Kevin Walsh increases uncertainty rather than reducing it. I’m staying more selective with sizing and holding some dry powder, since policy-driven volatility could rise through the summer. For NVDA, I’m still long-term constructive but aware e

I would not over-interpret a single session selloff as a regime shift. Positioning had become crowded, so a sharp unwind was overdue regardless of the leadership change. The transition from Jerome Powell to Kevin Warsh does matter, but mainly through uncertainty. Markets dislike losing a predictable policy anchor. That raises volatility, not necessarily changes the trend immediately. On adding exposure, I would be selective rather than aggressive: I would not deploy all cash here. Macro shorts rising suggests this could extend. I would start scaling in gradually, especially into quality names that corrected on positioning rather than fundamentals. For AI/semis, I would wait until after NVIDIA earnings. That event will likely set near-term direction for the entire complex. If NVDA holds up