My Investing Muse (26Oct2026) Waiting for the AI bank run An “AI bank run” is a possible risk, not a reported event [scenario]. In a bank run, withdrawals outpace repayment. Here, lenders and investors could withdraw funding faster than AI projects can replace it or renew debt. The risk is in credit markets, not bank queues. Rising lower-rated data-centre financing makes this scenario relevant. Cybersecurity and AI oversight. [fact] Last week brought an urgent CISA patch alert, a PyTorch supply-chain flaw and a critical GitLab bug. Claims that OpenAI lacks resources to address concerns are unverified. Can oversight keep pace with more autonomous AI? Sam Altman ruled out a 2026 IPO in September [fact]; a listing remains a future possibility. Listings require disclosure, while regulators sep

BRK.B’s Continued BAC Exit Under new $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ CEO Greg Abel, the continued reduction of $Bank of America(BAC)$ is the most conspicuous portfolio decision heading into BAC’s Q3 2026 earnings report. BRK.B’s Q2 2026 13F showed a sale of about 30.2 million BAC shares, equivalent to a -5.9% reduction and roughly $1.7 billion at quarter-end prices. It was BRK.B’s largest dollar reduction during the quarter. The sale continued the disciplined approach set by Warren Buffett. BRK.B owned just over 1.03 billion BAC shares in mid-2024 and has reduced its stake every quarter since. By the end of June 2026, it held 483.4 million shares, less than half of its earlier position. The Q2 filing marked t

Bank earnings intensify but should investors should be looking at net interest margin or loan-loss reserves first, or there is something else that should be considered? In this article, we would like to share an investor's guide to evaluating financial stocks in an evolving rate & credit cycle. 1. The Primary Dilemma: Net Interest Margin vs. Loan-Loss Reserves When financial institutions open earnings season, investor attention typically splits between profitability drivers and credit risk indicators. Determining whether to analyze Net Interest Margin (NIM) or Loan-Loss Reserves first depends entirely on the prevailing stage of the economic cycle. Net Interest Margin (NIM) measures the net margin between the interest income generated by a bank’s assets (loans, securities) and the inter

News and my thoughts from the past week (26Oct2026) 1. Major-company job cuts — American Express: 5%, about 3,500 employees; Barclays: 5,000 as AI improves efficiency; eBay: about 9%; Netflix: 6% globally, about 1,000 (WSJ via X user Zerohedge). Comcast plans significant cuts before its NBCUniversal spinoff (Bloomberg, 21 Oct). Perspective: cost savings are visible; extra AI revenue remains uncertain. 2. Morgan Stanley cuts its AMD chip forecast — Its 2026–2030 graphics-chip (GPU) forecast fell 43%, from 14.1 million to 8.0 million units: 5.9 million fewer (Morgan Stanley chart, 14 October). Perspective: weaker demand echoes the revenue and spending concerns in items 3 and 5. 3. AI revenue: expectations versus results — Rand Group Research compares combined OpenAI and Anthropic annual recu

🏦 Beginner’s Guide to Bank Earnings: JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs & Citigroup Part 1 · Understanding bank earnings, trading opportunities and hidden risks When major banks report earnings, I do not just look at whether their profits beat analysts’ expectations. I want to understand where the profits come from, whether those profits can continue, and how the market might react after the results are released. The three banks in our discussion are JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Citigroup (C). All three operate in the financial sector, but their businesses are different. This means a good earnings report for one bank does not automatically mean the other two will perform equally well. JPMorgan Chase A diversified banking giant Goldman Sachs Markets and investment banking Citigroup

The first major bank results are in, and the market reaction is surprisingly useful. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo collectively showed that high rates are still producing substantial earnings power. Net interest income remains strong, loan growth has not collapsed, and broad credit deterioration is not yet evident. Yet bank stocks sold off after the results. That tells me the market is no longer asking whether banks can make money at high rates. It is asking: How much of today's profitability is sustainable if rates stay high long enough to hurt borrowers, dealmaking and credit quality? That distinction determines what I would buy. NIM Is Strong, But Credit Is the Real Test Higher rates initially help banks because assets reprice and lending yields rise. JPMorgan gener

Major banks reporting tonight, but other than net interest margins, should investors be looking at other key factors or drivers, which could likely affect the major banks holding up valuations? In this article, we would like to provide an analysis that evaluates the critical drivers beyond NIM that investors must track to evaluate bank valuation durability. 1. The Limitations of Net Interest Margin Primacy Net Interest Margin (NIM) measures the net yield earned on a bank's interest-bearing assets relative to its interest-bearing liabilities. During the initial phases of monetary tightening, NIM expansion served as the core engine powering bank profitability. Assets re-priced rapidly to higher market rates while deposit costs lagged due to sluggish deposit beta response. However, relying on

Q3 2026 bank results from JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs (reported October 13) paint a picture of a still-spending U.S. consumer who is drawing down savings, while banks prudently build reserves. This pairs with tight overall credit spreads that are masking stress on the large debt issuers funding the AI infrastructure buildout. Tomorrow’s reports from Bank of America and Morgan Stanley will provide further read-through.[]()  Consumer Spending Holds, but the Foundation Looks Thin Card and consumer data remain solid. Citigroup reported U.S. card spending up roughly 11% year-over-year (general-purpose cards +13%, with average loans +9% in that portfolio). JPMorgan saw debit and credit card sales volume rise 10% and average credit card loans up 7%. Charge-off r

The indices: the Dow outran the Nasdaq for the third session in a row All three indices split again on Monday: the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ rose 0.38 per cent to 51,850.55; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ fell 0.06 per cent to 7,807.24, essentially flat; and the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ fell 0.44 per cent to 27,245.90. The 10-year Treasury yield stayed at 5.24 per cent, unchanged from Friday. Monday was the third consecutive session in which the Dow outperformed the Nasdaq. Nvidia fell 1.29 per cent to US$226.32 and AMD fell 2.28 per cent to US$594.24, extending the declines that began last Thursday on the OpenAI revenue report. Memory st

Bank earnings are not just about how much money banks make. They can also reveal how financially healthy American households really are. As major US banks report results, I’m looking beyond headline profits to three signals that could matter for the wider stock market. 💳 1. Credit card debt: Are consumers struggling? Credit card balances and missed payments can provide clues about household finances. If more customers fall behind on repayments, banks may need to set aside more money for potential losses. That could be an early warning sign that consumers are under pressure. 🛍️ 2. Spending: Is demand holding up? Strong card spending can suggest that consumers are still supporting the economy. But the quality of that spending matters too. If households increasingly rely on borrowing to maint

Wall Street’s earnings season starts with a critical test for America’s biggest banks. $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$, $Goldman Sachs(GS)$, $Wells Fargo(WFC)$ and $Citigroup(C)$ report third-quarter results on October 13, with investors looking for evidence that banks can sustain earnings despite economic uncertainty. Here’s the number that matters beyond headline profit: how much of that profit survives after credit losses and rising costs are accounted for. 💰 1. Higher rates aren’t a guaranteed win Banks earn interest on loans and investments while paying interest on deposits and other funding. When lending rates rise faster than funding costs, net interest income can improve. But the relationship isn’t automatic. Customers may demand better deposit rates, loan growth can weaken, and higher borro

The U.S. Consumer Is Resilient, Not Invincible Americans are still spending, but spending quality matters more than headline numbers. JPMorgan reported a 10% year-over-year increase in combined credit and debit card sales, while Bank of America data showed household card spending rose 6.2% in September. Demand remains strong despite inflation and high borrowing costs. However, strong spending does not guarantee financial health. Wealthier households can spend comfortably, while others sacrifice savings or postpone major purchases. The bigger concern is what happens if the labor market weakens while interest costs remain high. Consumers have less room to absorb shocks, especially those carrying credit-card balances. My takeaway: The consumer engine is running, but investors should watch cre

From my perspective, the US consumer still looks relatively resilient, but I think the picture is becoming more uneven. People may continue spending on essential goods and services, while becoming more selective about discretionary purchases as borrowing costs and living expenses remain high. What interests me most is the gap between these banks’ earnings. Strong trading revenue does not necessarily mean the overall economy is getting stronger. I would pay closer attention to net interest income, credit-card performance, loan growth, and deposit costs to understand whether consumers and businesses are becoming more financially stretched. I would not rush to conclude that everything is fine based on one quarter of earnings. I prefer to watch the next few quarters for signs of rising delinq

The data still looks closer to “spending as usual” than broad cutbacks. JPMorgan’s debit and credit card spending rose 10% YoY, while Citi reported US card spending up 11%. Credit quality is holding up too, with JPMorgan’s card charge-off rate falling to 2.91%. But I would not interpret that as consumers feeling comfortable. Persistent inflation and high borrowing costs are squeezing affordability, and banks are preparing for risks beneath the surface. For me, the warning signal would be spending slowing at the same time as delinquencies and charge-offs start rising. Until then, the US consumer looks resilient, but increasingly dependent on employment and wage growth staying strong.

I’m watching provisions more closely than NIM. Higher rates can support net interest income, but that benefit is fairly visible and can be partly offset by higher deposit costs. Provisions tell us something more important: whether banks themselves are seeing deterioration beneath the surface. If NIM stays healthy while provisions remain contained, that is a strong combination for banks. But if provisions jump sharply, especially across both consumer and commercial books, I would treat that as an early warning that higher rates are finally feeding through to credit stress. So for me: NIM drives earnings, but provisions drive the risk outlook. In this environment, the second matters more.