To The Moon

Where do you look for investment ideas?Or better yet, where do you NOT look for investment ideas?This is something I think a lot about and have developed some loose frameworks over the years.There are no hard and fast rules when it comes to investing, and I’ve broken every rule I talk about below, but I think it’s important to understand your goals as an investor and how you’re going to find the stocks that allow you to meet those goals.If I were looking for a steady 8% rate of return, industrials and energy may be a pond to fish in.But I’m looking for 10x stocks over the next 10 years.I want companies (and founders) that take big swings and get big outcomes.Those opportunities aren’t found just anywhere, and eliminating huge swaths of the market helps refine where I do look for ideas. Hop

I've seen three technology revolutions in my life that made a 10x impact on the world.1. The PC in the 1980s brought digital tools into the home. Pen and paper -> PC was easily a 10x improvement.2. The internet in the late 90s/early 2000s made finding information trivial. I grew up with encyclopedias and a library card and suddenly 100x more information than they held could be discovered in minutes (dial-up was slow).3. Smartphones moved the internet from the PC to your pocket. Now, the world's information was accessible 24/7 with virtually no friction.This is why I struggle with AI.What's the 10x improvement? Creating videos of my kids with Disney characters is cool, but it's not a 10x change in my life. Changing a calendar event with my voice in the car (

Vertically integrating with <50,000 units of demand is the biggest mistake $Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ can make.They're operating like $Apple(AAPL)$ in 2010 when the A4 chip launched. But Apple was selling 47 million iPhones/year by then. Rivian's autonomy day would have been impressive in 2022. Today, it's the wrong business model (vertically integrated) in a competitive market with modular suppliers offering a scalable solution to competitors with manufacturing scale.Rivian is STILL only making ~50k vehicles per year. It won't get over 215k in production for AT LEAST another three years.By then, millions of vehicles will have L4 autonomy. It's too late! Business. Models. Matter.Hasn't

The big news late last week was $Netflix(NFLX)$ agreeing to buy $Warner Bros. Discovery(WBD)$ studios and streaming assets. The cable networks will go into their own publicly traded zombie companies, but the good assets are going to Netflix — assuming regulatory approval.It’s pretty clear why Netflix wants these assets, and I don’t think it’s for the reason most pundits think. If you look at the Smiling Curve and where companies want to be, Netflix has already won in the top right.What it’s worried about is this middle section. Netflix is worried that Paramount, WBD, and Peacock will merge, creating another competitor that’s worth caring about.As it stands right now, $

One of the things I try to do is understand why things have worked out the way they have in the past.I’ve written a lot about how formerly strong brands like $The Kraft Heinz Company(KHC)$ , $BUDWEISER BREWING CO APAC LTD.(BDWBY)$ , and $Coca-Cola(KO)$ have lost their power position, as limited shelf space that drove supply’s advantage shifted in an internet world of unlimited shelf space.But where are the opportunities?A simple screen of the stocks that have generated a 25% compound annual return (25.9% is a 10x in 10 years) shows that most of the big companies on the list were household names a decade ago. And yet, they still generated huge returns.Even if we loo

I didn't understand $Netflix(NFLX)$ 10 years ago, but I learned lessons from that mistake.1. Users > Profits: In a digital business, it's critical to reach scale. Profits don't matter on the path to scale.2. Delay Taking Price: Margins are low? Who cares! See #1.3. Suppliers eventually have to bend the knee to the one who owns demand.You don't say, "I'm going to watch Sony's K-Pop tonight." You say, "I'm going to watch Netflix." Demand matters above all else. Owning the customer is the ultimate goal. The companies we CHOOSE to interact with are the ultimate winners on the market. The biggest winner in streaming today is probably ESPN/Disney.There was a real threat that Paramount Skydance would be a big player in sports after the $7.7 billion UF

One of the reasons I default to “never” selling stocks is that we never know when a stock will move higher or what will drive the move.I try to find companies that can compound revenue and earnings over a long period of time because that long-term view is our advantage over the market. But that doesn’t mean the ride will be a straight line higher.Take $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ as an example. The stock has been an incredible performer over the past two decades.But to realize those gains, you would have had to ride out drops of over 80% multiple times.How does selling play a role, even when we own phenomenal long-term stocks?Something Has ChangedIf the thesis on a stock I own has changed, it might be time to sell.I did this with previous Asymmetric Investing s

I think investors' misunderstanding of the autonomy market (valuing $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Lucid Group Inc(LCID)$ $Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ etc like tech companies) comes down to software vs hardware.In software, you can ship something that's not perfect. But you build a user base and make it better over time, which is a flywheel of users and resources and distribution...ohh my! In hardware, you get one shot to get it right. If you design a plane that costs $1 per mile, but it crashes 5% of the time, you have no customers. A plane that costs $100 per mile but never crashes wins the market.In autonomy, safety is first. Pass that safety bar, and we can start t

While hedge funds may blow up on a regular basis, they have an incentive to do so.Hedge fund managers make money based on the returns they generate for their investors. And they attract money based on outsized returns that attract attention. Just beating the market by a narrow margin each year isn’t enough.Put it this way, it’s in a hedge fund’s interest to bet on “Red” at the roulette table and have a 49% chance of doubling their money and a 51% chance of going bust. The upside of having a 100% return year is potentially 10x-ing the size of your fund. Go bust, and they can start over again.Our personal portfolios don’t work that way.But avoiding going bust is relatively straightforward.Avoid LeverageNearly every investing horror story starts with leverage.Margin is what wipes out investor

Results are in, and I think this product could be huge for $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ . 5 Takeaways1. Faster than going to a doctor.2. More transparent data (democratizing access to data). 3. Lower cost.4. Opens new verticals for HIMS.5. Deepens relationship and adds value beyond subscriptions. Ex. I may start using $HIMS recipes to improve nutrition. I didn't know they had that until yesterday. Exercise next? It's all about aggregating demand. And aggregating demand comes from adding value to users. HIMS does this in spades with labs. Excited to see what's next. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as