To The Moon

To those of you buying the dip:Remember, it takes a long time for the economy to stabilize and the market to bottom during a “normal” recession.Dot com: S&P 500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ peaked in early 2020 and didn’t bottom until late 2022.Great Recession: Peak in early 2007. Bottom in March 2009.It's OK to fail.We don't talk about this enough.Risks entail upside.It also involves downside risk.Most businesses fail.That doesn't mean the founders are failures.Embrace failure when it arrives.Learn from it.And try again. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2506(ESmain)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$

This “magic” is useless if a Tesla $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ runs into a light post every 100,000 miles (Feb. 2025).Tesla hasn’t recorded the prerequisite safety data $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ waymo or even $General Motors(GM)$ cruise did with a safety driver in the seat for millions of miles before going fully autonomous.If Tesla records every intervention for a year and reports it publicly, I’ll believe FSD is ready. Until then, it’s well behind competitors who are taking the safety needed to be truly autonomous seriously. Open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commi

Volatility and CompoundingCompounding is a cheat code for investors. If you buy companies that can compound revenue and earnings growth over decades it will drive great performance and compounding stock gains.The price we pay for high levels of compounding is volatility. That volatility is why the Asymmetric Portfolio is down over 25% in two months. But it’s a key to its outperformance long-term.Let’s go through two examples of how higher volatility portfolio will beat a low volatility portfolio over time. This example is built on two assumptions:The high volatility portfolio generates 2x the return of the low volatility portfolio each yearStocks go up more than they go downHistorically, both are true, so let’s see how this plays out long-term.You can see the high volatility portfolio outp

I think $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ made a masterful move this week. It announced the $32 billion acquisition of Wiz, the cloud security firm.I’m not a cybersecurity or cloud security expert, so I won’t play on here. Everything I’ve read is this is a high price but a potentially valuable asset for Google Cloud to have in the market.What may matter most about this deal is whether or not it gets through regulators. Under the Biden Administration, $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ was blocked from buying Roomba, $Spirit AeroSystems(SPR)$ couldn’t merge with JetBlue, and $Meta Platforms, Inc.(M

Last night, President Trump announced a 25% tariff on imported cars and car parts coming into the U.S. This isn’t surprising or out of left field, but the market seems to be surprised it’s now reality and not a negotiating tactic.If there’s a place to test the impact of tariffs, it’s in the auto industry. Higher costs won’t slowly be rolled out, like they may with tariffs on avocados, and vehicles are a discressionary purchase. They’ll likely hit stocker prices within the next month.What will customers do if the price of a vehicle rises $3,000 to $10,000, as some project?How will dealers and automakers adapt?It’s likely we see fewer sales because prices will go up. That said, the impact of imports will likely be lower than auto loans nearly doubling. And that didn’t cripple the industry.Ma

1. $Apple(AAPL)$ All of Apple's hardware segments are in decline.P/E ratio 35x!ImageImageImageImage2. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ Does price matter?This is Microsoft's return from 1999 to 2014.This is a reminder that multiple expansion is a tailwind and multiple compression is a headwind. Image3. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Robotaxis coming in June. 245 miles between critical disengagements today means FSD only needs to improve about 1,000x in the next 3 months.Image4. $Mobileye Global Inc.(MBLY)$ One of the reasons I like Mobileye is the clear opportunity to 10x revenue.They could go from $50-$100 in revenue per vehicle to $2,500+ befor

Is Nike $Nike(NKE)$ a turnaround story?Why risk it when there are very clear growth stories from On $On Holding AG(ONON)$ and Hoka $Deckers Outdoor(DECK)$ staring us in the face?Yes, they're big brands, but they could grow 25% per year for a decade and still not be as big as Nike's shoe business is today.Image

$Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ 's underappreciated subsidiary is scaling fast and building a lead over competitors.Waymo’s Rise to the TopThe market still seems to think $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ is in the lead in autonomy and Waymo, which is majority owned by Alphabet , is well behind because it has higher costs and uses “expensive” technology like LiDAR in its vehicles.Waymo’s vehicles are indeed expensive, but 30 years ago mobile phones were held in bags and cost as much as a mortgage payment.History tells us that proven technology will get significantly lower cost as it scales. And Waymo has proven the technology and is starting to scale.Today, Waymo operates

On the internet, the power goes to the company people CHOOSE to interact with every day. $Netflix(NFLX)$ in streaming $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ in search/mail $Apple(AAPL)$ in hardware $Uber(UBER)$ in ride-sharing $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ in retail $Intuit(INTU)$ for taxesMoats don't look like they did in the 80s and 90s.Great companies are built by people who push boundaries.Sentiment is correlated with a stock's price.If you want to beat the market, buy great companies when the sentiment

Inflation is the boogie man of the moment in financial media and it’s been that way for 17 years.Quantitative easing, the rise of Bitcoin, and the idea of “sound money” — whatever that is — has led a lot of people to think the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve are somehow screwing us over with inflation and the U.S. dollar is somehow junk.But the Fed has an inflation target of 2% long-term for a reason.Why does the Fed want inflation?The simplest answer is to think about the counterfactual. If you’re anti-inflation, you must be pro-deflation!What happens in a deflationary environment? A dollar buys more in the future than it does today. The incentive is to put off spending.This leads to less consumer spending. Less economic activity.It leads to the hoarding of money.Just ask Michael