To The Moon

In 30 years as an investor, the only time we have rivaled the absurdity of the current meme coin craze is the dot com bubble. In that case, there were very real companies with VERY crazy valuations because people were making up values for a new business model. They used eyeballs, page views, and all kinds of other crazy metrics to justify the valuation of companies with little revenue and nothing but losses as far as the eye could see.Eventually, sanity returned to the market when the bubble burst in 2000 and it would take more than 17 years for the $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ to get back to bubble highs.The latest bubble is in memes, which are quite literally, an “expression of support” for “ideals and beliefs” which seems even more absurd in a lot of ways t

You probably don't follow me for crypto takes and I don't post about crypto often anymore, so I'll keep this short. This is the one asymmetric opportunity I'm in.1. The team has been building the game for years through the bear.2. Economics and gameplay are innovative and only possible on the blockchain.3. Multi-chain and crypto isn't required to play, opening up the market.4. The assets seem extremely undervalued with YAKU at a ~$4 million market cap.Enough said.

Why I Bought More MGM Resorts StockI’m going to use $MGM Resorts International(MGM)$ as a proxy here because I recently bought more in the Asymmetric Portfolio, but the same thesis can be applied to $Crocs(CROX)$ or $General Motors(GM)$ (which I recently sold).The analysis is pretty simple. I’m looking for:Strong cash flow from a business with a wide moat.They aren’t adding land to the Las Vegas Strip.Macau has limited land, only 6 concessionaires, and limits both buildings and tables/slots.Only 1 casino is approved in Japan (2030).People need/want to go to destinations to get together and have fun. This goes for parties and businesses, which are increasingly remote

Red is P/E multiples over 20. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ Dark red is P/E multiples over 30. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Broadcom(AVGO)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Netflix(NFLX)$ The market is still extremely highly valued.Remember, 10x returns are often generated by buying stocks at 10-15x multipl

I’ve written extensively about $Walt Disney(DIS)$ ’s plans to bundle Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN to make a new streaming bundle in 2025. I think that could also include more content than we see today like a potential deal to include Fox’s sports programming on ESPN streaming, which would be compelling competition to $Netflix(NFLX)$ .What Bob Iger has done is create a clear streaming strategy on the scale side of the Smiling Curve. But this streaming strategy doesn’t address what happens to legacy assets, non-core assets, or how to squeeze value from over-the-top cable. Until this week.Disney announced a plan to trade its Hulu+ Live TV asset for a 70% stake in $fuboTV Inc.

The internet of the past 20 years and the multi-trillion dollar tech companies we see today are built on two assumed truths.The addressable markets are nearly infinite in sizeMarginal costs round to zeroThis is why $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ Facebook was trading for 100x earnings in 2014 and 2015. Investors knew it could eventually scale profits to the $55.5 billion in net income we see today.ImageIt’s why $Uber(UBER)$ could raise tens of billions of dollars chasing ride-sharing.It’s whywinner-take-all markets are valuable. It’s why theSmiling Curve works.Margins are 80% to 90% for most of these companies. The marginal cost isn’t important. What’s important is growing. Fast.ImageAI may not look like thi

They say it takes 10 years to master a craft.I'm 29 years into my investing journey and I'm no master. But I have learned this:1. Embrace uncertainty2. Accept diversification is good for you3. The less you look at your portfolio the betterWhat did I miss?The best investors are on a constant learning journey.Buffett started buying "cigar butt" stocks and evolved to a buy-and-hold strategy.Bill Gurley has made a fortune on internet companies and the internet didn't even exist when he started.The best trade is not to trade at all. Compounding takes time...and patience.Learn, implement, repeat.

1. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ Pull out Google Cloud and Waymo and you still have an amazing business with Alphabet's core. 2. $Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ When a tech company gets religion about cash flow the turnaround can happen fast. 3. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ At the current rate of capex growth, Microsoft will be FCF NEGATIVE in ~2026. This is a company with falling ROIC trading for 12.5x sales. Makes you think... 4. $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ A reminder that Coinbase is much more than an exchange business. And with the growth of USDC the stablecoin business is gett

One of the Asymmetric Universe stocks that I fundamentally disagree with most of the market’s commentary is $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ . Even today, a Wall Street analyst downgraded the stock to a sell with a $25 price target because of changing expectations for GLP-1s. 🤷 He expects GLP-1s to be only $135 million in revenue in 2025 from previous expectations of $400 million. Reminder, this is a business that didn’t exist 8 months ago!The company swings wildly day-to-day on GLP-1 news but GLP-1s account for very little of the company’s revenue or subscriptions. A long-term view of the company — which is what I do on Asymmetric Investing — shows a very different story than the GLP-1 focus and I think presents an opportunity for investo

This week, Sam Altman gave away the economics of the AI world. And they may not be all that attractive.The fact that OpenAI is losing money isn’t surprising. WHY OpenAI is losing money on a $200/month subscription is what’s new to Silicon Valley.AI Scaling 1.0 - Pre-TrainingTo explain how the economics of AI have been upended in the last few months, we need to go through some history.Most of the scaling that took place through the end of 2023 was related to pre-training.Simply, developers were able to use more data and more compute to make AI models smarter. This is often called the foundation model and it’s the core of the models we see today.This type of scaling is also why you heard talk about a model costing $1 billion and $100 billion models being just a few years away.But the idea of