To The Moon

D:Too early to call - wait for July payrolls report first.

My Vote: C. The Hormuz negotiations will likely keep oil prices volatile in the short term, but I still believe the Fed and economic data will have a bigger influence on the overall market. Unless we see a genuine disruption to oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, I think investors will gradually shift their focus back to inflation, employment, and interest rate expectations. Oil is important because it affects inflation, but it's only one piece of the puzzle. If upcoming jobs data continues to soften and inflation remains under control, the market will likely keep pricing in Fed rate cuts, which would support equities, bonds, and even gold. For me, the key indicators are payrolls, CPI, Treasury yields, and whether oil prices stay elevated for an extended period. Geopolitical headline

It's really hard to tell short term if a deal gets done. However, there is clearly appetite for rate hikes at the Fed and inflationary pressures are mounting. I definitely wouldn't write off rising interest rates yet, but I'm very long gold regardless. I don't see a medium term scenario where the gold price doesnt continue marching higher due to the grinding debasement of the USD.

I lean toward B — the Hormuz talks could stall over the blockade issue. Markets initially priced in the reopening headline, but Iran’s tougher conditions make a full resolution uncertain. If talks fail, oil could rebound quickly, so I expect continued volatility rather than a straight-line decline. For me, this is also a Fed and rates story. Softer jobs data and lower oil could strengthen Fed-cut expectations, supporting GLD and TLT while pressuring the dollar. I’m watching USO/XLE alongside GLD/TLT to see whether markets are pricing genuine disinflation or just another temporary geopolitical swing. I would avoid chasing the headline and wait for confirmation. If workable terms are reached and oil stays lower, the easing-inflation narrative becomes stronger. Until then, the actual agreeme

Hi Tigers 🐯, Oil is sending two different signals in the same week. First it fell for three straight sessions as headlines announced an Iran-Oman framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Then, within 24 hours, it reversed and jumped over 4% on reports that Iran's actual terms are far stricter than markets assumed. That raises an obvious question: If a deal has been reached, why is oil still this volatile? The answer is that markets rallied on the headline, not the fine print — and the fine print just arrived.🐯🪙 Read to the end and join the discussion — thoughtful market insights may receive Tiger Coins! 1.What Actually Happened This Week The transmission mechanism traders were betting on looked like this: Strait of Hormuz reopens → oil supply risk falls → energy costs fall → inflation pre

Every week, Owen talks through some of the trading opportunities and strategies in the current market that are worth watching. This time we won't dwell on preliminaries and will get straight to the point. I believe there are two main opportunities to focus on this time: First, the crude oil crack spread has now surged to a historic extreme. How to find the right timing to short the spread is a highly noteworthy profit opportunity. Second, U.S. equities are currently stuck in a high-level, range-bound pattern. With tonight's upcoming CPI data as a catalyst, how should we use an options straddle strategy to bet on a return of volatility? This is likewise an opportunity worth exploring. Let's look at them one by one. $标普500(.SPX)$

Hi Tigers 🐯, Oil is sending two different signals in the same week. First it fell for three straight sessions as headlines announced an Iran-Oman framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Then, within 24 hours, it reversed and jumped over 4% on reports that Iran's actual terms are far stricter than markets assumed. That raises an obvious question: If a deal has been reached, why is oil still this volatile? The answer is that markets rallied on the headline, not the fine print — and the fine print just arrived.🐯🪙 Read to the end and join the discussion — thoughtful market insights may receive Tiger Coins! 1.What Actually Happened This Week The transmission mechanism traders were betting on looked like this: Strait of Hormuz reopens → oil supply risk falls → energy costs fall → inflation pre

I lean toward B — the Hormuz talks could stall over the blockade issue. Markets initially priced in the reopening headline, but Iran’s tougher conditions make a full resolution uncertain. If talks fail, oil could rebound quickly, so I expect continued volatility rather than a straight-line decline. For me, this is also a Fed and rates story. Softer jobs data and lower oil could strengthen Fed-cut expectations, supporting GLD and TLT while pressuring the dollar. I’m watching USO/XLE alongside GLD/TLT to see whether markets are pricing genuine disinflation or just another temporary geopolitical swing. I would avoid chasing the headline and wait for confirmation. If workable terms are reached and oil stays lower, the easing-inflation narrative becomes stronger. Until then, the actual agreeme

My Vote: C. The Hormuz negotiations will likely keep oil prices volatile in the short term, but I still believe the Fed and economic data will have a bigger influence on the overall market. Unless we see a genuine disruption to oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, I think investors will gradually shift their focus back to inflation, employment, and interest rate expectations. Oil is important because it affects inflation, but it's only one piece of the puzzle. If upcoming jobs data continues to soften and inflation remains under control, the market will likely keep pricing in Fed rate cuts, which would support equities, bonds, and even gold. For me, the key indicators are payrolls, CPI, Treasury yields, and whether oil prices stay elevated for an extended period. Geopolitical headline

D:Too early to call - wait for July payrolls report first.

It's really hard to tell short term if a deal gets done. However, there is clearly appetite for rate hikes at the Fed and inflationary pressures are mounting. I definitely wouldn't write off rising interest rates yet, but I'm very long gold regardless. I don't see a medium term scenario where the gold price doesnt continue marching higher due to the grinding debasement of the USD.

Every week, Owen talks through some of the trading opportunities and strategies in the current market that are worth watching. This time we won't dwell on preliminaries and will get straight to the point. I believe there are two main opportunities to focus on this time: First, the crude oil crack spread has now surged to a historic extreme. How to find the right timing to short the spread is a highly noteworthy profit opportunity. Second, U.S. equities are currently stuck in a high-level, range-bound pattern. With tonight's upcoming CPI data as a catalyst, how should we use an options straddle strategy to bet on a return of volatility? This is likewise an opportunity worth exploring. Let's look at them one by one. $标普500(.SPX)$